Lumber at nine-month lows as housing stalls
OBSERVED: Lumber futures fell to $535 per thousand board feet on September 17, 2026 — a nine-month low — as elevated borrowing costs weighed on US housing demand after the Federal Reserve hiked its key policy rate (Trading Economics, 2026-09-17). US-Canada trade talks fell through and Ottawa announced 25% counter-tariffs on US lumber (50% on plywood); Canadian softwood already faced 14.63% anti-dumping plus 20.56% countervailing duties plus a 10% tariff, for 45.19% combined (Exhibitions & Conferences Alliance, 2026-08-03). Contract note: the old CME Random Length Lumber futures contract was delisted and replaced — the current CME lumber futures contract is 'Lumber' (product code LBR), 27,500 board feet, quoted in US dollars and cents per 1,000 board feet (CME Group contract specs). SCENARIO (hypothetical): housing weakness deepens into year-end and lumber breaks lower, or the trade-war supply side reasserts and prices snap back.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-17 → ongoing
The story so far
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Will the front-month CME Lumber futures contract (LBR) settle below $500.00 per thousand board feet on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Will the front-month CME Lumber futures contract (LBR) settle above $650.00 per thousand board feet on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Evidence
Illustrative only — not financial advice.