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Morrowfly

When the world shakes, see where it travels.

Wars, droughts, blocked canals, export bans — Morrowfly traces world events to what they mean for the prices you pay and the things you own. Illustrative — not predictions, not financial advice.

Trace a shock →Browse event records

Trace the shock — pick one, play it step by step

Strait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaSuez CanalPanama CanalTurkish StraitsBaltic SeaDover StraitMozambique ChannelCape of Good HopeHormuzMalaccaSuezPanamaTurkish StraitsBaltic SeaDoverMozambique Ch.Cape of Good HopeTaiwan StraitUS East/Gulf ports
bigger dot = higher market stress pulsing ring = high stress · Hormuz & Malacca always pulse — the world's two busiest arteries grey node = our coverage here is incomplete — not a calm market shipping lane dashed route = share still being sourcedSketch map — coastlines simplified, locations approximate

The map is hands-on — tap a glowing waterway for what flows through it, or pick a shock above and trace it from exporter to importer, step by step.

Happening now

Live stories with questions you can take a position on. Ordered by how much real evidence each one carries — sources, questions, and developments, richest first.

  • № 1 · Richest filewheatAustraliaweather

    ABARES raised its 2026-27 wheat forecast in September; December's report could cut it again

    OBSERVED: ABARES' June 2026 estimate put 2026-27 Australian wheat production at 26.7 million tonnes — down 26% year-on-year, 23% below the 5-year average and 8% below the 10-year average, already the smallest in three years — with wheat area down 12% to 10.9 million hectares, the least since 2019/20 (DAFF Australian Crop Report, June 2026; Reuters, 2026-06-02). ABARES' September 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report then revised 2026-27 production up to 29.9 MMT (from 26.7 MMT in June) on a wetter-than-expected southeast winter (DAFF, September 2026). The Bureau of Meteorology's May 21 outlook gave a 60–80% chance of below-average winter rainfall across cropping regions and an increasing chance of an El Niño and/or positive IOD event emerging through 2026, amid elevated fertilizer and fuel costs (Reuters, 2026-06-02). DAFF's official release schedule lists 'Tuesday December 1 — Australian crop report – December quarter 2026', and the December edition contains updates to both winter and summer crop forecasts for the Australian financial year — a revised 2026/27 wheat estimate will publish on or around Dec 1, 2026. CBOT Sep 2026 wheat closed at $7.56½/bu on Aug 31, 2026 (Dec-26 at $7.74) per Barchart. SCENARIO (hypothetical): the forecast El Niño arrives early and strong — eastern Australia's wheat belt receives well-below-median spring rainfall through October and November — cutting yields and the exportable surplus, with ABARES' December Australian Crop Report revising 2026-27 wheat lower again.

    5 evidence sources · 3 questions · 0 developments
    Forecasts lock in 3 daysRead the story →
  • № 2live_cattleUnited Statesweather

    Flash drought stalls the U.S. cattle herd rebuild

    OBSERVED: As of September 15, 2026, approximately 58% of U.S. cattle inventory was within an area experiencing drought, up from 23% a year earlier (USDA, via Beef Magazine, 2026-09-21); USDA-NASS rated 53% of range and pasture poor/very poor (vs 36% last year, 42% five-year average). Only 17% of pastures rated good/excellent — comparable to the poorest 2012-drought readings — with 37% of cattle in severe-or-worse drought (Provisioner Online, 2026-09-21); in the Southern Plains, 65% of pasture was poor or very poor (Ohio State, 2026-09-16). USDA NASS's July 2026 inventory put beef cows at 28.5 million head — the smallest July inventory on record (data back to 1973) — and the 2026 calf crop at 32.5 million, also a record low (Northern Ag Network). September Cattle on Feed: 11.163M head on feed as of Sept 1 (+0.7% y/y); August placements fell 9.2% y/y to 1.617M, the lowest August total on record (Beef Magazine, 2026-09-22). Futures context (Sept 22 closes, Barchart): Oct live cattle $218.775/cwt; Oct feeder cattle $328.025/cwt; cash cattle traded $225–$226/cwt after the Sept 18 report. SCENARIO (hypothetical): the drought persists into winter, forced liquidation accelerates, and the smaller calf crop tightens future feeder and live-cattle supply — first pressuring near-term prices, then supporting deferred futures.

    5 evidence sources · 3 questions · 0 developments
    Forecasts lock in 3 daysRead the story →
  • № 3copperChileinfrastructure

    Copper smelters starved as mine output stalls

    OBSERVED: LME 3-month copper touched an intraday all-time high of $14,694/tonne on September 8, 2026, surpassing the previous record of $14,527.50 set in January (US Metal News via PRNewswire, 2026-09-17) — note this figure is intraday; LME Official Prices are set as bid and offer during the second Ring session and print slightly below intraday extremes. Chile posted its weakest second-quarter copper output in at least 19 years and cut its full-year forecast for a second consecutive quarter, projecting a 2.6% annual decline (same source); Cochilco put 2026 output at 5.27 million tonnes, citing exceptionally poor H1 at Codelco and BHP's Escondida and Spence (Reuters, 2026-08-11). Sprott reports global mine output fell 1.1% y/y in H1 2026 — Chile down 6.6% — warning 2026 could be the first annual decline since 2017; Codelco abandoned its 2026 production target in August after the El Teniente setback (Northern Miner, 2026-09-17). Per the LME's methodology, there is no single 3-month official price: LME Official Prices are the last bid and offer quoted during the second Ring session, and the Official Settlement Price is the last cash offer price. SCENARIO (hypothetical): further mine disruptions extend the concentrate squeeze and LME copper prints a new official-price record through Q4.

    5 evidence sources · 2 questions · 0 developments
    Forecasts lock in 5 daysRead the story →

What if…

Interactive guides to the shocks that move markets — ranked by what's running hottest right now.

Coffee · Sugar · Soybeans
Heating upInteractive guide
What if Brazil's harvests falter?

Brazil tops world exports of coffee, sugar, and soybeans. Explore what a bad season would expose.

Open the guide →
Sugar
Heating upInteractive guide
What if India extends its sugar export curbs?

India is a top-five sugar exporter. Explore what extended curbs would expose.

Open the guide →
Rice
Heating upInteractive guide
What if India shuts rice exports again?

India is the top rice exporter. Explore what another export curb would expose.

Open the guide →
Wheat · Corn
Worth watchingInteractive guide
What if Black Sea grain stops?

Russia and Ukraine together are a quarter of world wheat exports. Explore the exposure.

Open the guide →
Soybeans · Corn
Worth watchingInteractive guide
What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops?

La Niña's crop damage concentrates in Argentina and southern Brazil — corn and soy. Model a severe event. Note: a strong El Niño is underway right now, so this is the counterfactual.

Open the guide →
Corn
Worth watchingInteractive guide
What if a 2012-style drought hits the US corn belt?

The US is the top corn exporter. Explore what another 2012 would expose.

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Wheat
Worth watchingInteractive guide
What if Suez closes to wheat?

On the measured lane, 97% of Black Sea/EU wheat to Asia transits Suez. Model the delay.

Open the guide →
Corn
Worth watchingInteractive guide
What if Europe's heatwave comes back worse?

Maize, the Rhine, and French nuclear power. Model a severe European heatwave — not a wheat shock: 2022's drought helped the wheat harvest.

Open the guide →
container-shipping
Interactive guide
What if traffic through the Strait of Malacca is disrupted?

Malacca carries 21% of global maritime trade by value (CSIS 2026, $2.46T). This models a disruption on the Ever Given template — throttling and delays, not a full closure, for which no measured analog exists.

Open the guide →
crude-oil
Interactive guide
What if Hormuz stays choked through winter?

The strait has effectively collapsed since the Feb 28, 2026 strikes on Iran: EIA put 2Q26 transits at 4.9 mb/d against a 21.6 mb/d 4Q25 baseline, and Kpler's strongest August week showed 4.26 mb/d of crude leaving. Transits run at 3–7 vessels a day, and the main Saudi bypass pipeline was shut by drone attack in September. This guide models how long the choke persists through winter, whether the remaining ~4–5 mb/d of crude flows erode further, and how much stockpile cover buffers the gap — while flagging the widely disputed flow figures.

Open the guide →
refining
Interactive guide
What if a Category 5 hurricane hits Houston?

The Gulf Coast holds about 54% of US refining capacity. Harvey shut 16.6% of it — but the gasoline shock only bites at Cat 3+. Model the storm yourself.

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autos
Interactive guide
What if a great earthquake and tsunami hit Japan?

Japan builds about 8.9% of the world's motor vehicles — and 2011's M9.0 shaved nearly half a point off US GDP through supply chains alone. Sole-source suppliers, not assembly plants, were the binding constraint. Model the shock yourself.

Open the guide →
crude-oil
Interactive guide
What if energy infrastructure gets hit next?

The US-Iran war is underway since February 28, 2026; Hormuz tanker traffic has slowed to a trickle, and a mid-September 2026 drone attack shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which had been moving 4-5 million barrels a day. This scenario models NEW physical damage to Gulf energy infrastructure beyond what has already happened — to processing plants, export terminals, or pipelines on either side of the Gulf. Tension, threats, or shipping rerouting alone do not count: the dial only counts operator- or EIA-confirmed physical capacity destroyed.

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semiconductors
Interactive guide
What if a major earthquake hits Taiwan?

Taiwan holds nearly 80% of EUV-generation foundry capacity and about 46% of total global foundry capacity — TSMC alone is 72% of foundry revenue. Three measured quakes (1999, 2016, 2024) show the range from overnight recovery to a 5× DRAM spike. Model the shock yourself.

Open the guide →
container-shipping
Interactive guide
What if the Taiwan Strait escalates — short of a blockade?

A full blockade has no measured analog, so it is out of scope here. This models an escalation short of blockade on the 2022 exercise template: drill-zone disruptions, reroutes east of Taiwan, and insurance repricing.

Open the guide →
containers
Interactive guide
What if a US port strike shuts the East and Gulf Coast ports?

The 36 ILA ports handle about 55% of US container imports by volume. Three days was absorbed in 2024; 2002's 10-day lockout took months to clear. Model a longer one.

Open the guide →
Palm oil
Interactive guide
What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950?

An El Niño is underway right now: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on September 10, 2026, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026–27. This scenario models the forecast's upper tail — the difference between very strong (≥2.0°C) and historic (≥2.5°C, stronger than any El Niño since 1950).

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Soybeans
Interactive guide
What if low water chokes the Panama Canal again?

About a quarter of US soybean exports transit the Panama Canal. Model the delay.

Open the guide →
Coffee
Interactive guide
What if Brazil's coffee regions bake again?

Brazil is a third of world coffee exports. Explore what another 2024-style drought would expose.

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Cocoa
Interactive guide
What if West Africa's cocoa belt dries out?

Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana anchor the West African cocoa belt. Explore what another dry stretch would expose.

Open the guide →
Copper
Interactive guide
What if a great earthquake hits Chile's copper belt?

Chile and Peru mine about a third of the world's copper. Past quakes stopped mines for hours or days — but structural damage has no modern analog. Model the harder case explicitly.

Open the guide →

What happened → what it taught us

Living records of past shocks — what was expected, what actually happened, and the lesson.

All 13 event records →
June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")
Jun 13 – Jun 24, 2025

The June 2025 Twelve-Day War spiked urea prices and briefly bounced grains on risk pricing — then grains fell below pre-conflict levels. A fertilizer-cost shock, not an ag-price event.

What happened → what was expected → what actually happened →
2024: Brazil's drought meets empty warehouses — coffee's 14-month rally
Apr 2024 – Mar 2025

Drought trimmed Brazil's crop — but near-empty warehouses turned a bad harvest into a 14-month rally that nearly doubled arabica. When inventories are thin, weather gets priced twice.

What happened → what was expected → what actually happened →
Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)
Nov 2023 – Apr 2024

Houthi attacks rerouted a third of Red Sea container traffic and roughly halved Suez trade — and grain prices fell anyway on record supply. The freight shock lived in shipping rates, not commodity prices.

What happened → what was expected → what actually happened →
Russia exits the Black Sea Grain Initiative — and wheat falls
Jul 2023

The headline exit rallied wheat briefly, then ample supply and alternative routes dominated: wheat -14.9% two months later. The exit was telegraphed for months — inspections had already slowed and some buyers had pre-positioned (Rabobank) — and Russia harvested a record crop instead of weaponizing supply. Observed in this episode; not a rule about exits.

What happened → what was expected → what actually happened →

Every ordering above is driven by data. Peek under the hood — the daily market stress readings behind it all: Market stress readings →