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Why this number moves

The level is a stock, so this week's print is last week's level plus everything that flowed in, minus everything that flowed out. Six links move it, and every one of them is a series in the same EIA report Morrowfly's monitor ingests on every run.

• Refinery runs, the largest steady drain

  Refiners take crude out of storage, and runs are seasonal and maintenance-driven.

• Imports, the swing inflow

  Crude imports have ranged between 5.7 and 7.3 million barrels per day over the ten weeks tabulated, a range wide enough to swing the weekly stock change by ten million barrels on its own.

• Exports, the swing outflow

  Crude exports have ranged between 3.1 and 4.8 million barrels per day in the same ten weeks tabulated.

• Production, the steady inflow, until weather stops it

  US field production printed 13.679 million barrels per day in the week ending October 9, down 300,000 barrels per day on the week, on hurricane shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico (see the second episode), and fell again in the week ending October 16 (EIA, as reported).

• SPR flows, the distortion to strip out mentally

  The contract counts commercial stocks only, but SPR barrels enter commercial storage when the government releases them, so an SPR release week prints as commercial inflow.

• Where the level sits against its own history

  The last print, 412.5 million barrels (week ending October 16, 2026), is the third consecutive weekly draw.