q2 · v1

Will the International Cocoa Organization's November 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics show the 2025/26 global cocoa season in deficit (a negative supply/demand balance)?

Target

2025/26 global cocoa supply/demand balance as published in the ICCO November 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics

Window

2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The ICCO November 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reports a negative (deficit) supply/demand balance for the 2025/26 cocoa season.

NO rule

The ICCO November 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reports a zero or positive (surplus/balanced) supply/demand balance for the 2025/26 cocoa season.

Source

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, November 2026 edition

Missing data

If the ICCO November 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics is not published by 2027-01-31, or it does not carry a 2025/26 global supply/demand balance, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision. The balance as first published controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if the missing report or figure is later published, the reviewer may re-resolve the question to YES or NO. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

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