q1 · v1

Will the front-month ICE Brent crude oil futures contract settle above $110.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-18, inclusive?

Target

Daily settlement price of the front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract

Threshold

110 (US dollars per barrel)

Window

2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2026-12-19 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

At least one daily settlement price of the front-month Brent contract exceeds $110.00/bbl on a trading day within the window.

NO rule

No daily front-month Brent settlement exceeds $110.00/bbl on any trading day within the window. (Applies only when every trading day in the window has a published settlement; see the missing-data rule.)

Source

ICE Futures Europe daily settlement prices for the front-month Brent crude futures contract

Missing data

Days with no published settlement (weekends, exchange holidays) are not observations; scheduled non-trading days are never treated as missing. 'Front-month' on a trading day means the nearest-expiring listed contract whose delivery month is later than the current calendar month; the front contract rolls on the first trading day of each calendar month. The exchange's own front-month designation is not used. Resolution: YES if any observed daily settlement in the window crosses the threshold. NO only if every trading day in the window has a published settlement and none crosses the threshold. DATA_MISSING if one or more trading days lack a published settlement for any reason other than a scheduled exchange holiday (an unexpected data gap) and no observed day crosses the threshold — the gap could hide a crossing, so a NO cannot be claimed. If trading in the contract is suspended entirely for 5 or more consecutive trading days within the window, the question resolves DATA_MISSING, pending reviewer decision. This applies only if no observed settlement in the window has crossed the threshold. No observation is ever imputed; absence of data never counts as a NO. Backfill: if missing settlements are later published by the exchange or an authoritative vendor, the question re-resolves to YES or NO on the complete series. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

—

Outcome

No outcome recorded yet.

Your forecast

Forecast history

No forecasts recorded for this question yet.