q1 · v1

Will the front-month ICE NY cocoa futures contract settle above 8,000.00 USD per tonne on at least one trading day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?

Target

Daily settlement price of the front-month ICE NY cocoa futures contract

Threshold

8000 (USD per tonne)

Window

2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

At least one daily settlement price of the front-month NY cocoa contract exceeds 8,000.00 USD/tonne on a trading day within the window.

NO rule

No daily NY cocoa front-month settlement exceeds 8,000.00 USD/tonne on any trading day within the window. (Applies only when every trading day in the window has a published settlement; see the missing-data rule.)

Source

ICE Futures US daily settlement prices for the NY Cocoa (CC) futures contract

Missing data

Days with no published settlement (weekends, exchange holidays) are not observations; scheduled non-trading days are never treated as missing. 'Front-month' on a trading day means the nearest-expiring listed contract whose delivery month is later than the current calendar month; the front contract rolls on the first trading day of each calendar month. The exchange's own front-month designation is not used. Resolution: YES if any observed daily settlement in the window crosses the threshold. NO only if every trading day in the window has a published settlement and none crosses the threshold. DATA_MISSING if one or more trading days lack a published settlement for any reason other than a scheduled exchange holiday (an unexpected data gap) and no observed day crosses the threshold — the gap could hide a crossing, so a NO cannot be claimed. If trading in the contract is suspended entirely for 5 or more consecutive trading days within the window, the question resolves DATA_MISSING, pending reviewer decision. This applies only if no observed settlement in the window has crossed the threshold. No observation is ever imputed; absence of data never counts as a NO. Backfill: if missing settlements are later published by the exchange or an authoritative vendor, the question re-resolves to YES or NO on the complete series. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

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