q2 · v1

Will the LBMA Platinum Price (PM auction) fix below $1,500 per troy ounce on at least one London pricing day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?

Target

LBMA Platinum Price (PM auction) on each London pricing day

Threshold

1500 (USD per troy ounce)

Window

2026-10-01 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The LBMA Platinum Price from the PM auction on at least one London pricing day within the window falls below $1,500 per troy ounce.

NO rule

The LBMA Platinum Price (PM auction) does not fall below $1,500 per troy ounce on any London pricing day within the window. (Applies only when every London pricing day in the window has a published PM auction price; see the missing-data rule.)

Source

LBMA Platinum Price (PM auction), administered by the London Metal Exchange (LME)

Missing data

London pricing days with no PM auction are not observations and never count as missing. Resolution: YES if the LBMA Platinum Price (PM auction) crosses the threshold on any London pricing day in the window. NO only if every London pricing day in the window has a published PM auction price and none crosses the threshold. DATA_MISSING if one or more London pricing days lack a published PM auction price (an unexpected gap) and no observed day crosses the threshold — the gap could hide a crossing, so a NO cannot be claimed. If the PM auction is suspended for 5 or more consecutive London pricing days within the window, the question resolves DATA_MISSING, pending reviewer decision. No observation is ever imputed; absence of data never counts as a NO. Backfill: if missing auction prices are later published, the question re-resolves to YES or NO on the complete series. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-29 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-29 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

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