q1 · v1

Open for forecasts

Will the arithmetic mean of the daily ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) values published in October 2026 exceed 350.00 US cents per pound?

Target: Arithmetic mean of daily ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) values published in October 2026
Threshold: 350 (US cents per pound)
Window: 2026-10-01 07:00:00 UTC → 2026-11-01 06:59:59 UTC
YES rule: The arithmetic mean of the daily I-CIP values published by the ICO in October 2026 exceeds 350.00 US cents/lb.
NO rule: The arithmetic mean of the daily I-CIP values published by the ICO in October 2026 is at or below 350.00 US cents/lb. (Computed over published values only, subject to the missing-data rule.)
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO) daily indicator prices, ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) series
Missing data: The ICO publishes the I-CIP on scheduled publication days (business days). Days on which no value is expected (weekends, holidays) are not observations and never count as missing. If more than 5 scheduled publication days in October 2026 lack a published I-CIP value (an unexpected gap), or the ICO discontinues the I-CIP series, the question resolves DATA_MISSING — the October mean cannot be fairly computed. Otherwise the arithmetic mean is computed over published values only; no value is ever imputed. Backfill: if missing values are later published, the question re-resolves. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.
Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Forecast lock: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Next check: —

Outcome