q3 · v1

Will the Alliance de Vanille Malgache (AVM)'s planned 600-tonne processed-vanilla buyback be reported as completed or confirmed underway on at least one day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive, in a dated trade or industry report or a Madagascar government statement?

Target

Dated report confirming the AVM 600-tonne processed-vanilla buyback as completed or confirmed underway

Window

2026-10-01 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

At least one dated report published within the window, from the eligible sources, describes the AVM's 600-tonne processed-vanilla buyback as completed or confirmed underway.

NO rule

No dated report from the eligible sources confirming the AVM 600-tonne buyback as completed or confirmed underway appears between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31.

Source

Dated trade or industry reporting from Ecofin Agency or FreshPlaza, or a Madagascar government statement, confirming the Alliance de Vanille Malgache (AVM) 600-tonne processed-vanilla buyback as completed or confirmed underway

Missing data

Confirmation must be a dated report (article or official statement) describing the AVM's 600-tonne processed-vanilla buyback as completed or confirmed underway, from Ecofin Agency, FreshPlaza, or a Madagascar government statement. Rumors, trader talk, or unconfirmed social media posts do not count. If no such dated report appears by 2026-12-31, the question resolves NO. If the eligible publication channels were unreachable at review time so that absence cannot be verified, the question resolves DATA_MISSING, pending reviewer decision. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

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