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The verdict

What if a Category 5 hurricane hits Houston?

For this scenario, about 48.6% of total US operable refining capacity would be exposed to the disruption, and the 60-day assumed stockpile cover outlasts the 30-day disruption.

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Exposed ≠ lost. Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Model the shock

How bad is the shockCat 5

Saffir-Simpson category at landfall (National Hurricane Center)

30d

Days until PADD 3 refining returns to pre-storm throughput (EIA/DOE situation reports)

60d

Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What to watch

  • National Hurricane Center track and landfall category — the gasoline shock only bites at Cat 3+ (Harvey was Cat 4 at landfall)
  • DOE/EIA situation reports: peak share of US refining reported shut or reduced (Harvey: 16.6%)
  • The two giants in the hazard zone: Motiva Port Arthur and Marathon Galveston Bay

Evidence: Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make your call

Not a bet, not financial advice. Write your one-line read — we check back on November 14, 2026 and grade it in public.

How we model thisThe full evidence, assumptions, and arithmetic — analyst layer.
Guided scenario

What if a Category 5 hurricane hits Houston?

The Gulf Coast holds about 54% of US refining capacity. Harvey shut 16.6% of it — but the gasoline shock only bites at Cat 3+. Model the storm yourself.

1The setup

PADD 3 — the Gulf Coast — holds about 54% of US operable refining capacity (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 9,799 of 18,160 thousand b/d), including the two largest US refineries, Motiva Port Arthur and Marathon Galveston Bay. Three storms set the measured range: Katrina (2005) knocked about 13% of national refining offline and lifted US average gasoline 46¢ in a week; Rita (2005) took 14% of refining offline, net of Katrina restarts; Harvey (2017) shut 10 refineries — 16.6% of daily US capacity — and left Motiva Port Arthur closed two weeks or more. The counter-example is Beryl (2024): a Cat 1 that left major refineries untouched and moved Houston gasoline about 5¢ on crude, not the storm. Below Cat 3 this scenario is a power and port shock, not a gasoline shock.

Market check · Polymarket

What the market thinks

Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

Polymarket · live contract

3%

implied chance of “Yes” on a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026…

The market says 3% — you say the real chance is…

Your take lives on this device only. Illustrative — not a bet, not advice.

Closest live contract — whether ANY hurricane makes Texas landfall this season. It is not a Category 5, it is not Houston specifically, and it is not an energy-market contract.

$47.3K traded · resolves by 2026-12-08Odds as of Nov 9, 2026, 16:09 UTCView this market on Polymarket →

Illustrative only — not financial advice, not a recommendation.

2Adjust the assumptions

Hurricane category at landfallCat 5

Historical check: No refining & gasoline episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.

What share of the exposed capacity is disrupted.

Resolution: Saffir-Simpson category at landfall (National Hurricane Center)

30d

Historical check: No refining & gasoline episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.

Resolution: Days until PADD 3 refining returns to pre-storm throughput (EIA/DOE situation reports)

60d

Your assumption — not a measured buffer.

Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What this assumes
  • Exposure: Target share 54.0% × severity 90% = 48.6% exposed.
  • Uncovered days: max(0, 30 − 60) = 0.
  • Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
  • Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
  • Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
  • Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Share of total US operable refining capacity in the hazard zone

US operable refining capacity in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) — 54.0% of total US operable refining capacity

Exposed under your assumptions: 48.6% (54.0% × 90% severity)

The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.

Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Nov 2025 (PADD 3: 9,799 vs US 18,160 thousand b/d)

Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.

Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 30 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption

Covered by stockpiles— the assumed cover outlasts the disruption

What this would have meant

For this scenario, about 48.6% of total US operable refining capacity would be exposed to the disruption, and the 60-day assumed stockpile cover outlasts the 30-day disruption.

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Analog check

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Want the full controls? Reopen refining & gasoline on its commodity page.

3Right now

refining

INCOMPLETE

Coverage incomplete — the monitor is missing feeds for refining, so no score is shown. Incomplete coverage is not zero risk.

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.

How the shock travels

Refinery shutdowns

Plants shut preemptively and complex facilities restart slowly: Harvey shut 10 refineries — 16.6% of daily US refining capacity as of Aug 31, 2017 — and Motiva Port Arthur, the largest US refinery, was expected closed two weeks or more. Gulf spot gasoline hit five-year highs within days.

Evidence: DOE situation reports, Aug 2017 — 10 refineries, 16.6% of US capacity; Motiva Port Arthur down ≥2 weeks

Product pipelines

The Colonial and Plantation product pipelines originate in Houston and feed the East Coast; Colonial suspended its Houston-origin lines during Harvey, cutting Gulf-to-East-Coast gasoline flow.

Evidence: Harvey 2017 reporting — Colonial suspended Houston-origin lines; DOE released 1M bbl from the SPR

Port closures

Houston, Corpus Christi, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City all shut preemptively for Beryl; Corpus Christi is the leading US crude export hub, so closures stall crude exports alongside imports.

Evidence: Reuters, Jul 2024 — preemptive closures; Corpus Christi = top US crude export hub

LNG export halt

Nearly all existing US LNG export capacity sits on the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana (EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025); Freeport LNG activated hurricane plans during Beryl.

Evidence: EIA AEO 2025 — nearly all US liquefaction on the Gulf Coast; US LNG exports avg 17.4 Bcf/d in 1H 2026

Caveat: Specific US–Europe gas price pass-through not quantified in sources found — the halt is sourced, the price effect is not

Power grid failure

Refineries need grid power to restart and fuel distribution needs it to sell: Beryl — a Cat 1 — knocked out power to 2.7M customers, and Houston gas stations saw long lines because outages hit fuel distribution, not refineries.

Evidence: AAA Texas via KPRC, Jul 2024 — outages hit distribution, not refineries

4The exposure

Coverage incomplete — the monitor does not track exporter shares for refining & gasoline. The exposure for this scenario is sized from the declared capacity snapshot in the “Adjust the assumptions” section above instead.

Trade map

Who ships it, who can’t do without it

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Sourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.

Refining & gasoline · US Gulf Coast

Top exporters

  • United States

    12.75% of world exports

  • India

    6.59% of world exports

  • Singapore

    6.41% of world exports

  • South Korea

    5.83% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    5.7% of world exports

Note: HS22 2710 petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, other than crude (BACI 2024): gasoline, diesel/gasoil, jet fuel, naphtha, fuel oil, lubricants and other refined aggregates. Crude (2709) excluded. Singapore and the Netherlands are major refining AND re-export hubs — gross flows overstate origin for hubs even after BACI reconciliation; no further correction applied.

Exposed importers

Shocked exporters: United States

US Gulf refined-products export corridor

via No single maritime chokepoint (Gulf Coast loadings to the Atlantic basin)

No single corridor — share not applicable — Gulf Coast loadings to the Atlantic basin; no single maritime chokepoint. No route share applies -- this is not missing research.

How we map this

Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its refining & gasoline imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.

5What happened before

For perspective, not prediction

No structured comparable records for this scenario yet. Where the setup above narrates historical episodes, those are drawn from contemporary reporting — they have not yet been structured into comparable records.

What to watch

  • National Hurricane Center track and landfall category — the gasoline shock only bites at Cat 3+ (Harvey was Cat 4 at landfall)
  • DOE/EIA situation reports: peak share of US refining reported shut or reduced (Harvey: 16.6%)
  • The two giants in the hazard zone: Motiva Port Arthur and Marathon Galveston Bay
  • Colonial and Plantation pipeline status — Harvey suspended Colonial's Houston-origin lines
  • Preemptive port closures: Corpus Christi is the leading US crude export hub
  • The grading line: ≥10% of US refining offline separates true shocks (Katrina 13%, Rita 14%, Harvey 16.6%) from near-misses (Beryl ~0–2%)

Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make it yours

Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.

Tell us

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Read by a human · never auto-published

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026 · Trade vintage 2024 · Scoring v3.4

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What if a Category 5 hurricane hits Houston? | Morrowfly