Copper smelters starved as mine output stalls
OBSERVED: LME 3-month copper touched an intraday all-time high of $14,694/tonne on September 8, 2026, surpassing the previous record of $14,527.50 set in January (US Metal News via PRNewswire, 2026-09-17) — note this figure is intraday; LME Official Prices are set as bid and offer during the second Ring session and print slightly below intraday extremes. Chile posted its weakest second-quarter copper output in at least 19 years and cut its full-year forecast for a second consecutive quarter, projecting a 2.6% annual decline (same source); Cochilco put 2026 output at 5.27 million tonnes, citing exceptionally poor H1 at Codelco and BHP's Escondida and Spence (Reuters, 2026-08-11). Sprott reports global mine output fell 1.1% y/y in H1 2026 — Chile down 6.6% — warning 2026 could be the first annual decline since 2017; Codelco abandoned its 2026 production target in August after the El Teniente setback (Northern Miner, 2026-09-17). Per the LME's methodology, there is no single 3-month official price: LME Official Prices are the last bid and offer quoted during the second Ring session, and the Official Settlement Price is the last cash offer price. SCENARIO (hypothetical): further mine disruptions extend the concentrate squeeze and LME copper prints a new official-price record through Q4.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-08 → ongoing
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Will the daily mean of the LME Copper (3-month) official bid and offer prices, as published by the London Metal Exchange, exceed $14,800 per tonne on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Will the front-month COMEX copper (HG) futures contract settle above $7.00 per pound on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Evidence
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