q1 · v1

Will the daily mean of the LME Copper (3-month) official bid and offer prices, as published by the London Metal Exchange, exceed $14,800 per tonne on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?

Target

Daily mean of the LME Copper (3-month) official bid and offer prices, as published by the London Metal Exchange

Threshold

14800 (USD per tonne)

Window

2026-10-01 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The daily mean of the LME Copper (3-month) official bid and offer prices exceeds $14,800 per tonne on at least one trading day within the window.

NO rule

The daily mean of the LME Copper (3-month) official bid and offer prices does not exceed $14,800 per tonne on any trading day within the window. (Applies only when every trading day in the window has published official bid and offer prices; see the missing-data rule.)

Source

London Metal Exchange (LME) 3-month official bid and offer prices for copper

Missing data

Days with no published LME Copper (3-month) official bid or offer prices are not observations; scheduled non-trading days are never treated as missing. Resolution: YES if the daily mean of the official bid and offer prices exceeds the threshold on any trading day in the window. NO only if every trading day in the window has published official bid and offer prices and none of the daily means crosses the threshold. DATA_MISSING if one or more trading days lack published official prices for any reason other than a scheduled exchange holiday (an unexpected data gap) and no observed day crosses the threshold — the gap could hide a crossing, so a NO cannot be claimed. No observation is ever imputed; absence of data never counts as a NO. Backfill: if missing official prices are later published, the question re-resolves to YES or NO on the complete series. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-29 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-29 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

—

Outcome

No outcome recorded yet.

Your forecast

Forecast history

No forecasts recorded for this question yet.