Drought shrivels EU corn crop; import demand surges
OBSERVED: The European Commission cut its 2026/27 EU maize forecast to 51.9 million tons (lowest since 2007) in late July, while Expana and Argus expect output below 50 million tons for the first time since the 1990s; France's crop could fall by half to under 7 million tons (smallest since 1976) and Germany's grain-maize output is down 14% to 4.24 million tons (Reuters, 2026-08-14). Euronext corn (Nov-26, Mar-27, Jun-27) settled around 262 EUR/t on Sept 15, while CBOT December 2026 corn traded around 536–537 US cents/bu on Sept 16 (CMB News). The US has overtaken Ukraine as the EU's largest corn supplier at the start of 2026/27, and indicative EU maize sat around 282 EUR/t for September settlement — both single-sourced to CMB News, a niche publisher, and uncorroborated on opened pages. SCENARIO (hypothetical): harvest confirms the low end of analyst estimates and EU import demand pulls global corn prices higher through Q4.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-17 → ongoing
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Will the front-month CBOT corn futures contract settle above 600.00 US cents per bushel on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Will the USDA WASDE published in December 2026 project EU 2026/27 corn production at or below 48.0 million metric tons?
Will the front-month Euronext corn (maize) futures contract settle above €300.00 per metric ton on at least one trading day between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Evidence
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