Weak monsoon threatens India's sugar recovery
OBSERVED: Monsoon rainfall is running well below normal across India's cane belt: WISMA reports sugarcane drying up in Marathwada, Vidarbha, Solapur and Ahilyanagar after roughly 45 rainless days, warning Maharashtra's 2026-27 sugar output could fall about 20% to ~8.0 million tonnes versus 9.9 in 2025-26 (AgriInsite via PTI, 2026-09-21). India's weather office projected the June–September monsoon at 90% of the long-term average (down from 92% in April), and raw sugar touched an intraday high of 14.35 cents/lb on the news in late May (ChiniMandi). India allowed mills to export 1.59 million metric tons of sugar, betting output would exceed domestic demand (Reuters, 2026-05-06). Note: the May 2026 FAS circular's 30.0-million-ton figure is India's 2025/26 estimate (revised down 5.3M tons on excessive rainfall) — not a 2026/27 figure. SCENARIO (hypothetical): lower cane yields cut 2026-27 output, shrinking India's exportable surplus and supporting world raw-sugar prices through Q4.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-15 → ongoing
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Will the front-month ICE Sugar No. 11 futures contract settle above 20.00 US cents per pound on at least one trading day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-15, inclusive?
Will the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's November 2026 'Sugar: World Markets and Trade' circular estimate India's 2026/27 centrifugal sugar production at 30,000 thousand metric tons (30.0 million tonnes) or lower?
Evidence
Illustrative only — not financial advice.