El Niño warning stirs talk of an orange-juice price floor
OBSERVED: Rabobank's September 2026 Brazil Agribusiness Quarterly (reported Sept 21) describes the Brazilian orange juice industry as 'challenging' but stirring: spot orange prices rose from BRL 25/box in May to BRL 31/box in August, and FCOJ futures in New York recovered to about US$1.58/lb in late August from July's US$1.32/lb yearly low — though levels 'remain below production costs for a significant share of growers' (Citrus Industry Magazine). The report flags that a strong El Niño could 'have a significant impact on next year's crop' — i.e. the 2027/28 crop, not confirmed damage to 2026/27. Fundecitrus's first re-estimate on 2026-09-10 RAISED the 2026/27 crop to 263.15 million boxes (+3.1% from May's 255.2M); the next forecast publishes December 10, 2026. SCENARIO (hypothetical): El Niño strengthens into Q4, the December 10 Fundecitrus update disappoints, and FCOJ extends its recovery off the July lows.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-21 → ongoing
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Will the front-month ICE Futures US Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ-A) futures contract settle above 180.00 US cents per pound on at least one trading day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-15, inclusive?
Will the arithmetic mean of the daily front-month ICE Futures US FCOJ-A futures contract settlement prices during November 2026 be above 170.00 US cents per pound?
Will the arithmetic mean of the daily front-month ICE Futures US FCOJ-A futures contract settlement prices during December 2026 be above 175.00 US cents per pound?
Evidence
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