q3 · v1

Will the arithmetic mean of the daily front-month ICE Futures US FCOJ-A futures contract settlement prices during December 2026 be above 175.00 US cents per pound?

Target

December 2026 arithmetic mean of daily front-month FCOJ-A settlement prices

Threshold

175 (US cents per pound)

Window

2026-12-01 08:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The arithmetic mean of the daily front-month FCOJ-A settlement prices over all December 2026 trading days exceeds 175.00 US cents/lb.

NO rule

The December 2026 mean of daily front-month FCOJ-A settlements is at or below 175.00 US cents/lb. (Computed over published values only, subject to the missing-data rule.)

Source

ICE Futures US daily settlement prices for the FCOJ-A (OJ) futures contract

Missing data

The arithmetic mean is computed over December 2026 trading days with a published front-month settlement, using the standard front-month roll rule each day. 'Front-month' on a trading day means the nearest-expiring listed contract whose delivery month is later than the current calendar month; the front contract rolls on the first trading day of each calendar month. The exchange's own front-month designation is not used. Days with no published settlement (weekends, exchange holidays) are not observations and never count as missing. If more than 5 trading days in December 2026 lack a published settlement for any reason other than a scheduled exchange holiday (an unexpected data gap), the question resolves DATA_MISSING — the mean cannot be fairly computed. Otherwise the mean is computed over published values only; no value is ever imputed. Backfill: if missing settlements are later published, the question re-resolves on the complete series. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

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