q2 · v1

Open for forecasts

Will ICE-certified arabica coffee inventories exceed 400,000 bags on at least one calendar day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?

Target: Daily ICE certified arabica (Coffee C) warehouse inventory level
Threshold: 400000 (60-kg bags)
Window: 2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC
YES rule: The ICE daily warehouse stocks report shows certified arabica inventories above 400,000 bags on at least one calendar day in the window.
NO rule: ICE certified arabica inventories stay at or below 400,000 bags on every scheduled publication day of the window for which a figure is published.
Source: ICE Futures US daily warehouse stocks report for certified arabica (Coffee C) inventories
Missing data: ICE publishes its certified arabica warehouse-stocks figures on scheduled publication days (business days). Days on which no figure is expected (weekends, exchange holidays) are not observations and never count as missing. If more than 5 scheduled publication days in the window lack a published figure (an unexpected gap), the question resolves DATA_MISSING, pending reviewer decision. Otherwise the question resolves YES if any published figure in the window exceeds 400,000 bags and NO if every published figure is at or below 400,000 bags. No figure is ever imputed; absence of data never counts as a NO. Backfill: if missing figures are later published, the question re-resolves. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.
Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Forecast lock: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Next check: —

Outcome