Coffee's record surplus flushes prices lower
OBSERVED: On September 10, 2026 the ICO projected record 2025/26 global coffee production of 183.6 million bags (+4.4% y/y) against consumption of 180.6 million bags (-0.9%), leaving a 3-million-bag surplus — the first surplus in five years (Barchart). Brazil's August 2026 coffee exports hit a record 4.155 million bags (+31% y/y) while ICE-certified arabica stocks sat at 217,646 bags, the lowest in 27 years (EBC Financial Group via Reuters). December arabica fell to three-month lows on Sept 21, and Minas Gerais received 33.4 mm of rain (242% of normal) in the week ended Sept 20, supporting 2026/27 flowering (Barchart). SCENARIO (hypothetical): the September report marks the top of the multi-year shortage cycle — the surplus deepens as supply keeps arriving, certified inventories rebuild, and futures fall further through Q4.
Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-10 → ongoing
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Will the front-month ICE Coffee C (arabica) futures contract settle below 250.00 US cents per pound on at least one trading day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Will ICE-certified arabica coffee inventories exceed 400,000 bags on at least one calendar day between 2026-10-05 and 2026-12-31, inclusive?
Will the International Coffee Organization's October 2026 Coffee Market Report estimate the 2025/26 global coffee surplus above 3,000,000 bags?
Evidence
Illustrative only — not financial advice.