q2 · v1

Will the USDA WASDE published in October, November, or December 2026 project US 2026/27 soybean exports above 1.750 billion bushels in at least one of the three releases?

Target

US 2026/27 soybean exports projection in the October/November/December 2026 WASDE (US oilseed supply-and-use table, US soybean exports row)

Threshold

1.75 (billion bushels)

Window

2026-10-01 07:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The US soybean exports row in the October, November, or December 2026 WASDE shows 2026/27 exports above 1.750 billion bushels in at least one release.

NO rule

The projected US 2026/27 soybean export figure is at or below 1.750 billion bushels in all published releases.

Source

USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), October/November/December 2026 releases, US oilseed supply-and-use table, US soybean exports row

Missing data

The question resolves on the releases that are published. If any of the three releases is not published by 2027-01-31 and no published release crosses the threshold, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision. The value as first published in each release controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if a missing release is later published, the reviewer may re-resolve the question. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

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