China returns to US soybean buying

OBSERVED: China is back in the US soybean market after roughly six months of buying almost exclusively from Brazil: as of late August, US new-crop 2026/27 soybean sales commitments totaled nearly 16.3 MMT — more than double the same point last year — with China at 7.76 MMT (Farm Futures, 2026-09-11). New-crop November soybeans settled at $13.16-1/4 on Sept 9, supported by Chinese purchases, and hit 2-1/2-year highs above $13 in early September (Reuters via The Cattle Site). The September 24 Xi visit date and Beijing's non-confirmation of the reported 25 MMT full-year purchase target appeared only in search snippets, not on opened pages — both are unconfirmed and are not asserted here. Farm Futures cautions that buying is largely state (Sinograin) so far, with large-scale private-crusher inquiries yet to emerge. SCENARIO (hypothetical): the trade talks hold, Chinese buying keeps running through Q4, and US balance sheets tighten instead of drowning in a record crop. (Counter-signal: China's pig herd is expected to shrink in Q4 with negative crush margins — see the China demand event — so the demand recovery is far from assured.)

Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-09 → ongoing

Illustrative only — not financial advice.