q3 · v1

Will cumulative US soybean export sales to China for the 2026/27 marketing year (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) reach 15.0 million metric tons or more in the last USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales report published in December 2026?

Target

Cumulative US soybean export sales to China for 2026/27 (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports), per USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales

Threshold

15 (million metric tons)

Window

2026-12-01 08:00:00 UTC → 2027-01-01 07:59:59 UTC

YES rule

The China row for marketing year 2026/27 in the last December 2026 Weekly Export Sales report shows cumulative export sales (outstanding plus accumulated exports) at or above 15.0 million metric tons.

NO rule

Cumulative US soybean export sales to China for 2026/27 are below 15.0 million metric tons in that report.

Source

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Weekly Export Sales reports, China row for marketing year 2026/27 (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports)

Missing data

Use the China row for marketing year 2026/27 in the last Weekly Export Sales report published in December 2026. If no December 2026 report is published by 2027-01-15, or the country-level breakdown is absent, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision — no stale pre-December report is substituted. The figure as first published controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if the December report is published late, the reviewer may re-resolve the question. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.

Evidence cutoff

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Forecast lock

2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC

Next check

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