q2 · v1

Open for forecasts

Will the USDA's November 2026 WASDE report forecast Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports below 40,000,000 tonnes?

Target: Russia 2026/27 wheat export forecast in the USDA November 2026 WASDE
Threshold: 40000000 (tonnes)
Window: 2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2026-12-01 07:59:59 UTC
YES rule: The November 2026 WASDE report's forecast of Russia's 2026/27 wheat exports is below 40,000,000 tonnes.
NO rule: The November 2026 WASDE keeps Russia's 2026/27 wheat export forecast at or above 40,000,000 tonnes.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), November 2026 release
Missing data: If the November 2026 WASDE is not published by 2026-12-15, or the Russia 2026/27 wheat export forecast is absent, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision. The forecast figure as first published controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if the missing report or figure is later published, the reviewer may re-resolve the question to YES or NO. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.
Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Forecast lock: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Next check: —

Outcome