q3 · v1

Open for forecasts

Will the International Coffee Organization's October 2026 Coffee Market Report estimate the 2025/26 global coffee surplus above 3,000,000 bags?

Target: 2025/26 global coffee surplus estimate in the ICO October 2026 Coffee Market Report
Threshold: 3000000 (60-kg bags)
Window: 2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2026-12-01 07:59:59 UTC
YES rule: The ICO October 2026 Coffee Market Report's 2025/26 global coffee surplus estimate exceeds 3,000,000 bags.
NO rule: The ICO October 2026 Coffee Market Report estimates the 2025/26 global coffee surplus at or below 3,000,000 bags.
Source: International Coffee Organization (ICO), Coffee Market Report, October 2026 edition
Missing data: If the ICO October 2026 Coffee Market Report is not published by 2026-11-30, or the report does not include a 2025/26 global surplus estimate, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision. The estimate as first published controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if the missing report or figure is later published, the reviewer may re-resolve the question to YES or NO. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.
Evidence cutoff: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Forecast lock: 2026-09-28 07:00:00 UTC
Next check: —

Outcome