MORROWFLY
← ABARES raised its 2026-27 wheat forecast in September; December's report could cut it again

q3 · v1

Open for forecasts

Will the USDA December 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report estimate Australia's 2026/27 wheat exports below 20.0 million tonnes?

Target
Australia 2026/27 wheat exports estimate in the USDA December 2026 WASDE
Threshold
20 (million tonnes)
Window
2026-10-05 07:00:00 UTC → 2026-12-19 07:59:59 UTC
YES rule
The December 2026 WASDE's Australia 2026/27 wheat export estimate is strictly below 20.0 million tonnes.
NO rule
The December 2026 WASDE's Australia 2026/27 wheat export estimate is at or above 20.0 million tonnes.
Source
USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), December 2026 edition, Australia wheat exports 2026/27 marketing-year trade table
Missing data
If the December 2026 WASDE is not published by 2027-01-31, or the Australia 2026/27 wheat export figure is absent, the question resolves DATA_MISSING (not NO), pending reviewer decision. The figure as first published controls; later revisions do not change the resolution. Backfill: if the missing report or figure is later published, the reviewer may re-resolve the question to YES or NO. Grading: a question resolving DATA_MISSING is voided from forecaster scores.
Evidence cutoff
2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC
Forecast lock
2026-09-27 07:00:00 UTC
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