ABARES raised its 2026-27 wheat forecast in September; December's report could cut it again

OBSERVED: ABARES' June 2026 estimate put 2026-27 Australian wheat production at 26.7 million tonnes — down 26% year-on-year, 23% below the 5-year average and 8% below the 10-year average, already the smallest in three years — with wheat area down 12% to 10.9 million hectares, the least since 2019/20 (DAFF Australian Crop Report, June 2026; Reuters, 2026-06-02). ABARES' September 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report then revised 2026-27 production up to 29.9 MMT (from 26.7 MMT in June) on a wetter-than-expected southeast winter (DAFF, September 2026). The Bureau of Meteorology's May 21 outlook gave a 60–80% chance of below-average winter rainfall across cropping regions and an increasing chance of an El Niño and/or positive IOD event emerging through 2026, amid elevated fertilizer and fuel costs (Reuters, 2026-06-02). DAFF's official release schedule lists 'Tuesday December 1 — Australian crop report – December quarter 2026', and the December edition contains updates to both winter and summer crop forecasts for the Australian financial year — a revised 2026/27 wheat estimate will publish on or around Dec 1, 2026. CBOT Sep 2026 wheat closed at $7.56½/bu on Aug 31, 2026 (Dec-26 at $7.74) per Barchart. SCENARIO (hypothetical): the forecast El Niño arrives early and strong — eastern Australia's wheat belt receives well-below-median spring rainfall through October and November — cutting yields and the exportable surplus, with ABARES' December Australian Crop Report revising 2026-27 wheat lower again.

Published 2026-09-24 18:17:40 UTC · 2026-09-15 → ongoing

Illustrative only — not financial advice.