Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

What happened

What everyone expected

Observed prices and measurement limits

Evidence and interpretation

How this record has changed

Living document — every material change is logged here, newest first.

1. New evidence2026-10-30

   Coffee fell sharply in the last week of October after the Brazilian real plunged about 9% on Monday, October 26, following President Lula's surprise fourth-term election win, which encouraged Brazilian exporter selling: December arabica (KCZ26) fell 6.6% on the week and settled at 287.20 US cents per pound on Friday, October 30, while November robusta (RMX26) settled at $3,219 per tonne, with both contracts lower in October (arabica down 1.2%, November robusta down 6.56% against September 30 settlements). ICE arabica certified stocks ended the week at 225,068 bags, only modestly above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags set on September 15, after touching 222,035 bags on Wednesday, but bags pending grading reached 47,476 by Friday, the highest in six weeks and all of Brazil origin, while ICE robusta inventories set a 1.25-year high of 6,809 lots on Thursday before easing to 6,763 lots on Friday. Somar Meteorologia reported 29.6 mm of rain in Minas Gerais in the week ended October 25, 82% of the historical average, during the flowering stage.

   Barchart, Coffee Closes Sharply Lower on the Week Despite a Modest Rebound on Friday, Oct 30, 2026 (KCZ26 up 1.75 to close the week, down 6.6% on the week; real down 8.6% on the week; pending grading 47,476 bags Friday; arabica stocks 225,068 bags; robusta stocks 6,809 lots Thursday and 6,763 lots Friday; Somar Minas Gerais 29.6 mm, 82% of average, week ended Oct 25) · CocoaIntel, Coffee Rebounds but Arabica Ends the Week Down 6.6%, Oct 30, 2026 (KCZ26 settlement 287.20 cents/lb, October change -1.20%; RMX26 settlement $3,219/t, October change -6.56%) · Barchart, Arabica Coffee Prices Fall on Concern About Brazilian Real Weakness, Oct 27, 2026 (KCZ26 closed down 7.20, -2.39% Tuesday; real down 8.8% Monday after the election result)

2. New evidence2026-10-26

   ICE certified coffee stocks diverged further in the week to Friday, October 23: arabica inventories fell to a new 5-week low of 227,978 bags, only moderately above the 27-year low of 217,646 bags set on September 15, even though nearly 28,000 bags were pending grading, the highest total in over a month, while robusta inventories soared over six weeks to a 13-month high of 6,612 lots. That extends the split already in this record (arabica at a 2-month high of 260,654 bags on October 7 against robusta at a 10-month high of 5,398 lots on September 24): deliverable arabica remains scarce while robusta availability keeps building.

   Barchart, Coffee Prices Fall Despite Decline in ICE Coffee Inventories to 5-week Low, Oct 23, 2026 (intraday version: arabica 234,433 bags on Thursday, robusta 6,612 lots 13-month high, about 28,000 bags pending grading) · TradingView (Barchart), Coffee Prices Fall Despite Decline in ICE Coffee Inventories to 5-week Low, Oct 23, 2026 (post-close version: arabica fell Friday to a new 5-week low of 227,978 bags)

3. Correction2026-10-21

   Correction to the October 20, 2026 revision on this record. The 317.15 US cents per pound figure published there was an intraday print, not the day's settlement, and the percentages published with it mixed an intraday numerator with settlement denominators. On a consistent settlement basis: ICE Coffee C December 2026 (KCZ26) settled at 311.30 US cents per pound on October 20, 2026, down 4.40 cents on the day, up 6.35 percent over 5 trading days (from 292.70 on October 13) and up 14.32 percent over 20 trading days (from 272.30 on September 22). The October 20 intraday range was 309.20 to 318.20, and Reuters reported that arabica fell that day after hitting a six-week high. The rest of the October 20 revision is unchanged.

   Barchart: Signs of Larger ICE Inventories Weigh on Coffee Prices (2026-10-20) · Reuters via TradingView: Arabica coffee falls after hitting six-week high (2026-10-20) · Yahoo Finance: KC=F daily price series (settlements and intraday range, retrieved 2026-10-21)

4. New evidence2026-10-20

   ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 317.15 US cents per pound as of October 20, up 16.47 percent over 20 trading days and 8.35 percent over 5 days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-20) scored coffee ELEVATED with a total of 7 and a supply score of 4. On October 20 CropGPT reported that arabica rose as certified supply tightened, despite record crop forecasts in the same reporting. On October 19 TradingView reported that supply risks supported coffee prices, and Realnoe vremya reported that Brazil is losing part of its harvest. On October 20 The Independent Uganda reported that 60 percent of Agago coffee seedlings survived a four-month drought. The counterweight in the same evidence set is CoffeeTalk Magazine, which reported on October 20 that this year's expected harvest surplus may not be enough to calm coffee market volatility. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-19, observe per ICE certified-stock reporting and Conab crop reporting whether certified arabica supply remained tight and whether a Brazilian harvest loss was quantified. Check-back: 2026-12-19.

   CropGPT: Arabica Rises as Certified Supply Tightens Despite Record Crop Forecasts (2026-10-20) · TradingView: Supply Risks Support Coffee Prices (2026-10-19) · Realnoe vremya: Brazil is losing its harvest, the coffee business is under attack (2026-10-19) · The Independent Uganda: 60% of Agago coffee seedlings survive four-month drought (2026-10-20) · CoffeeTalk Magazine: This Year's Expected Harvest Surplus May Not Be Enough to Calm Coffee's Market Volatility (2026-10-20)

5. New evidence2026-10-19

   Colombia's Coffee Federation reported on October 9 that 2025/26 production (October-September) fell 15% year on year to 12.65 million bags, with exports down 12% to 11.78 million bags, a full-season outcome for the world's second-largest arabica producer. Vietnam's Agriculture Ministry warned that the Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing region, could face El Nino-triggered drought later this year and in early 2027.

   Barchart, Supply Risks Support Coffee Prices, Oct 19, 2026

6. New evidence2026-10-19

   ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 313.7 US cents per pound on October 19, up 7.95 percent over five trading days and 13.49 percent over twenty trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-19) scored coffee at ELEVATED with a supply score of 3. The Straits Times reported on October 19 that Vietnam's coffee output is forecast to remain flat and that El Nino threatens the next crop, and Philstar.com reported on October 18 that a lean harvest may push coffee prices higher for consumers. The October 15 items already published on 2026-10-16 (Uganda's August shipments down 14 percent on drought; weather concerns over Ethiopia's harvest, commit 67a0c32d8b300779f4a3307111df818a690facfe) are not re-sourced here. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-18, observe per Vietnamese and ICO reporting whether El Nino-affected origins' output forecasts held and whether KC=F's 20-day advance persisted. Check-back: 2026-12-18.

   The Straits Times: Vietnam coffee output forecast to remain flat; El Nino threatens next crop (2026-10-19) · Philstar.com: Bad news for coffee lovers: Lean harvest may lead to higher coffee prices (2026-10-18)

7. New evidence2026-10-15

   ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 294.8 US cents per pound on October 15, up 1.46 percent over 20 trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-15) scored coffee at WATCH with a supply score of 2. CNBC Africa reported on October 15 that Uganda's August coffee shipments fell 14 percent on drought, and CoffeeTalk Magazine reported on October 15 that weather concerns loom over Ethiopia's coffee harvest. The counterweight in the same evidence set is older: StoneX reported on October 9 that rains in Brazil favor flowering and raise expectations for the next harvest. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-14, observe per Uganda Coffee Development Authority and Ethiopian reporting whether drought-related shipment shortfalls persisted beyond August, and per Conab whether Brazil's flowering continued to support harvest expectations. Check-back: 2026-12-14.

   CNBC Africa: Uganda August coffee shipments down 14% on drought (2026-10-15) · CoffeeTalk Magazine: Weather Concerns Loom Over Ethiopia's Coffee Harvest (2026-10-15) · StoneX: COFFEE/CEPEA: Rains favor flowering and raise expectations for the next harvest (2026-10-09)

8. New evidence2026-10-12

   Weather and stock evidence both leaned bearish for the 2026/27 outlook. Somar reported Minas Gerais received 33.3 mm of rain in the week ended Oct 4, 104% of the historical average, during the critical flowering stage, while Vaisala reported abundant rains improving soil moisture in Vietnam's Central Highlands. ICE arabica inventories rebounded to a 2-month high of 260,654 bags (Oct 7), holding well above the Sep 15 27-year low of 217,646 bags, and ICE robusta inventories sat at a 10-month high of 5,398 lots (Sep 24).

   Barchart: Coffee Prices Fall on Abundant Supplies from Brazil, 2026-10-08 · Barchart: Larger Supplies from Brazil Pressure Coffee Prices, 2026-10-07

9. New evidence2026-10-12

   The early-October whipsaw completed a full round trip driven by physical supply evidence. KCZ26 rose 4.07% on Oct 6 to a 3.5-week high as the Brazilian real hit a 4.75-month high, then Brazil's Trade Ministry reported September coffee exports up more than 20% y/y to 236,000 MT, triggering long liquidation: KCZ26 fell 3.86% on Oct 7 and 1.25% on Oct 8, while RMX26 fell 2.92% and 1.78% over the same two days, with Vietnam's September exports up 53% y/y to 124,000 MT adding pressure on robusta.

   Barchart via TradingView: Brazilian Real Strength and El Nino Risks Boost Coffee Prices, 2026-10-06 · Barchart: Larger Supplies from Brazil Pressure Coffee Prices, 2026-10-07 · Barchart: Coffee Prices Fall on Abundant Supplies from Brazil, 2026-10-08

10. New evidence2026-10-09

    Brazilian supply recovery dominated the tape even as weather risk persisted elsewhere: StoneX via CEPEA (09 Oct 2026) reported rains favoring flowering and raising expectations for the next harvest, TradingView (08 Oct 2026) reported ample Brazil coffee supplies weighing on prices, and CropGPT (trusted, 09 Oct 2026) reported coffee reversing as a Brazilian export surge overrode currency support. The counterweight: TradingView and Zawya (08 Oct 2026) reported coffee prices rallying in Central America amid El Nino-linked drought. KC=F settled at 289.5 US cents/lb asof 09 Oct 2026, down 7.7% over 20 days, while the monitor scored coffee QUIET (total 3, supply 2). By 2026-12-07, observe per CONAB and ICE reporting whether Brazilian exports stayed elevated through the harvest window and whether El Nino-linked weather in Central America translated into tighter regional supply or remained a price-support narrative.

    StoneX: COFFEE/CEPEA - Rains favor flowering and raise expectations for the next harvest (2026-10-09) · TradingView: Ample Brazil Coffee Supplies Weigh on Prices (2026-10-08) · CropGPT: Coffee Reverses as Brazilian Export Surge Overrides Currency Support (2026-10-09) · Zawya: Coffee prices rally in Central America amid El Nino-linked drought (2026-10-08)

11. New evidence2026-10-08

    Central American coffee prices rallied on El Nino-linked drought (TradingView, Zawya, Oct 8), and TradingView reported on Oct 6 that prices were rallying on Brazilian real strength and El Nino risks. KC=F front-month arabica was 287.75 US cents/lb asof Oct 8, down 9.85% over 20 days, while the monitor's coffee score level stayed QUIET. By 2026-12-07, observe per CONAB and ICE reporting whether El Nino conditions deepen across Central American and Brazilian coffee regions and whether front-month arabica moves with the weather narrative.

    TradingView: Coffee prices rally in Central America amid El Nino-linked drought (2026-10-08) · Zawya: Coffee prices rally in Central America amid El Nino-linked drought (2026-10-08) · TradingView: Coffee Prices Rally on Brazilian Real Strength and El Nino Risks (2026-10-06)

12. New evidence2026-10-05

    Coffee whipsawed late Sep / early Oct. Somar Meteorologia: Minas Gerais received 29.7mm rain in the week ended Sep 27 (112% of historical average), a near-term bearish signal for the 2026/27 flowering; Climatempo then forecast limited rain chances for Minas Gerais the coming week, and arabica rallied to a 3-week high (~Sep 30/Oct 1), robusta to a 1-month high on fears dry conditions and El Niño (trader Commercial flagged possible rain delays in Sep-Oct flowering) could hurt the 2026/27 crop. The rally was erased by a 1.5-year high in the dollar index, prompting long liquidation Oct 1-2. Oct 2: December arabica (KCZ26) closed +0.50 (+0.21%), November ICE robusta (RMX26) +21 (+0.61%), a 5-week robusta high on short covering; weekly COT showed funds lifted robusta net-short to 3,959 contracts in the week ended Sep 29 (13-month high). Inventories split: ICE arabica stocks at 27-year low 217,646 bags (Sep 15) then rebounded to 8-week high 260,054 bags (~Sep 30); ICE robusta inventories at 10-month high 5,398 lots.

    Barchart: Coffee Prices Settle Higher as Dollar Weakness Spurs Short Covering (Oct 2) · Barchart: Dollar Strength Weighs on Coffee Prices (Oct 1) · Barchart: Dollar Strength Spurs Long Liquidation in Coffee Futures (Oct 1)

13. New evidence2026-09-25

    The supply-recovery narrative met fresh weather risk on September 25: back-to-back storms battered Hawaii coffee farms during the critical harvest season (Hawaii News Now, September 25), and ChemAnalyst reported Colombia's coffee production falling as El Nino threatens the 2026 harvest. The bearish counterweight held: Uganda Business News reported exports continuing to grow on a bumper harvest, and StoneX reported Brazil's coffee exports surging as the harvest advances with market focus shifting toward the 2027 crop. Front-month arabica (KC=F) stood at 280.7 cents/lb on September 25, down 17.9% over 20 trading days (dashboard). This is the 2024 event's weather-to-supply mechanism at work in both directions at once — storms and El Nino tightening some origins while record supply flows from others. By 2026-11-23, observe per Barchart/ICE whether front-month arabica traded at or above 300 cents/lb on any trading day (weather-shock thesis confirmed) or held below ~280 cents/lb (supply-recovery motion continued). Check back 2026-11-23.

    Hawaii News Now: Back-to-back storms batter Hawaii coffee farms during critical harvest season (2026-09-25) · ChemAnalyst: Colombia's Coffee Production Falling as El Nino Threatens the 2026 Harvest (2026-09-25) · Uganda Business News: Coffee exports continue growing on bumper harvest (2026-09-25) · StoneX: Brazil's Coffee Exports Surge as Harvest Advances, Shifting Market Focus Toward the 2027 Crop (2026-09-24) · Dashboard / ICE: KC=F front-month daily data, 280.7 cents/lb asof 2026-09-25, 20d -17.9%

14. Correction2026-09-25

    Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a declining price does not establish that a supply shock had no supportive effect. Removed unsupported claims about offsetting drivers and clarified benchmark and window limits.

    Commodity-trader feedback supplied by the user; editorial review of bundled event observations (25 Sep 2026) · ICE — Coffee C futures specifications

15. New evidence2026-09-24

    The post-drought selloff continued into the week of September 22: front-month arabica (KC=F) stood at 277.95 cents/lb on September 24, down 22.27% over 20 trading days (dashboard). New drivers confirm supply recovery rather than just price weakness: StoneX reports Brazil's coffee exports surging as the harvest advances with market focus shifting toward the 2027 crop, and Uganda Business News reports Ugandan coffee exports growing on a bumper harvest. Cerrado Mineiro 30-day rainfall ran at 6.06x the normal ratio during the flowering season. This is the weather-to-supply mechanism of the 2024 drought event running in reverse — rain and bumper harvests rebuilding the supply the drought took away. By 2026-11-23, observe per Barchart/ICE whether front-month arabica traded at or above 300 cents/lb on any trading day (selloff reversed) or held below ~280 cents/lb (supply-recovery motion continued). Check back 2026-11-23.

    StoneX: Brazil's Coffee Exports Surge as Harvest Advances (2026-09-24) · Uganda Business News: Coffee exports continue growing on bumper harvest (2026-09-23) · Barchart / ICE: KC=F daily settlement data

16. New evidence2026-09-23

    The post-drought selloff deepened to 3-month lows on September 21-22: December arabica (KCZ26) closed at 276.40 cents per pound (-4.10c, -1.46%) on September 21 and November robusta (RMX26) fell 2.52% on September 22 (Barchart). New bearish drivers: Somar Meteorologia reported 33.4mm of rain in Minas Gerais in the week ended September 20 — 242% of the historical average — during the critical flowering stage, and ICE robusta inventories rose to a 9.75-month high, while Vaisala reported improved soil moisture in Vietnam's Central Highlands. Since August 25 at 335.50 cents, December arabica has lost 59.10 cents (about 17.6%) (farmingportal.co.za, September 22). New counter-risks: hail damaged coffee farms in southern Minas Gerais during flowering (CocoaIntel, September 17), and unusual weather has triggered early 2027-crop flowering in Brazil (farmingportal.co.za, September 22).

    Barchart, 21 Sep 2026 · Barchart, 22 Sep 2026 · farmingportal.co.za, 22 Sep 2026 · CocoaIntel, 17 Sep 2026

17. New evidence2026-09-21

    The drought-driven rally fully unwound on record supply: the ICO projected a record 2025/26 global crop of 183.6M bags (+4.4% y/y) against consumption of 180.6M bags (−0.9% y/y) — a 3M-bag surplus, the first in five years — and USDA forecast a record 2026/27 global output of 189.7M bags, with Brazil's crop at a record 71.9M bags (+14% y/y) (Barchart, Sep 17, 2026). Arabica fell to a 2.5-month low by mid-September on record Brazilian August exports of 4.155M bags (+31% y/y).

    Barchart, 17 Sep 2026

18. New evidence2026-09-17

    Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for Apr-Oct 2024 at the Minas Gerais coffee centroid: +0.52 C mean temperature anomaly vs the 1991-2020 baseline, rainfall 38.1% below normal, 195 of 214 days under 1mm. Computed 2026-09-17 from the v1_2026-09-15 raw daily series with the same window_anomalies() method (addendum CSV in research). Attribution: weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com.

    Morrowfly research vintage v1_2026-09-15 + 2026-09-17 window addendum (ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo)

19. Correction2026-09-15

    Seed revision marking this record as published under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15: outcome figures recomputed from Morrowfly's own month-end price history, intraday peaks confined to mechanism prose, and no bare '%' figures in narratives. Applied at creation, before any public revision.

    Morrowfly internal adversarial review standard (15 Sep 2026)

Transmission

• Coffee

  production loss

  Brazil is about a third of world coffee exports; the drought hit arabica during flowering for the 2025/26 crop (Conab, Sep 2024; Cemaden via Nasdaq).

Sources

• Comunicaffe · 19 Sep 2024 · Conab cuts its estimate for Brazilian production by 4 million bags
• Nasdaq (Barchart) · Jan 2025 · Coffee Prices Push Higher as Conab Cuts its Brazil Coffee Crop Estimate
• Tridge · 29 Nov 2024 · Historic November in the global coffee market; prices reach record levels
• Reuters · 13 Feb 2025 · Arabica coffee prices seen falling 30% by end-2025
• ICE · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Coffee C futures specifications