Records
Records of past shocks: what happened, what everyone expected, what actually happened, and the lesson.
All records
El Niño
Every few years the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific weaken, and a pool of warm water normally held near Asia sloshes back toward South America. That warm pool rewires atmospheric circulation worldwide: Southeast Asia and Australia turn drier and hotter, southern South America turns wetter, coastal Peru floods, and the Indian monsoon weakens. Climate scientists track it with the Oceanic Niño Index; NOAA declares an episode when the index stays at least half a degree above normal for five consecutive overlapping seasons.
For commodity markets the mechanism matters more than the label. Drought in Southeast Asia hits palm oil, rice and sugar through yields; drought in Australia hits wheat; a weak Indian monsoon threatens sugarcane, cotton and rice; Vietnam's dry season threatens robusta coffee. But El Niño also brings generous rain to Argentina and southern Brazil — often good news for soybeans and corn. The price implications require separate evidence on the affected crop, stocks, other producers, and demand; these mechanisms are not estimated from the price comparisons below.
No direct channel established in the evidence reviewed here: Orange juice, Lumber.
Full El Niño record — episodes, feared impacts, measured outcomes →How it reaches our commodities
| Commodity | Region | Channel | Typical pressure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm oil | Indonesia, Malaysia | Drought cuts yields, with a lag into the following year | Upward | FAO, Nov 2015 |
| Rice | Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, India | Drought | Upward | FAO, Nov 2015 |
| Sugar | India, Thailand; Brazil | Weak monsoon (drought); excess rain delaying harvest in Brazil | Upward | FAO, Nov 2015; Rabobank, Jun 2015 |
| Coffee | Vietnam, Indonesia (robusta); Brazil, Colombia (arabica) | Drought and heat (robusta); warmer, less frost (arabica) | Upward for robusta; neutral-to-downward for arabica | USDA via FERN, 2016; Rabobank, Jun 2015 |
| Wheat | Australia | Drought and heat | Upward | Rabobank, Jun 2015 |
| Soybeans | Argentina, southern Brazil | Above-normal rainfall, reduced drought risk | Downward/neutral — often supply-favorable | Rabobank, Jun 2015 |
| Corn | Argentina, southern Brazil; India | Favorable rain in South America; weak-monsoon planting risk in India | Downward/neutral in South America; upward risk in India | Rabobank, Jun 2015 |
| Cotton | India | Deficient monsoon | Upward | Reuters, May 2015 (rainfed cotton under El Niño watch); Assocham via Hindu BusinessLine, 2014 (deficient monsoon could hit cotton) |
| Natural rubber | Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines | Drier-than-normal conditions | Upward | Indonesian Rubber Association via Tireworld, Nov 2015 (El Niño plus haze disturbed photosynthesis — secondary report, treat cautiously) |
| Cocoa | Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria | Heat and drought | Upward | Neuberger Berman citing ICCO, Sep 2015 (ICCO: El Niño typically reduces global cocoa output 2.4%) |
| Copper | Peru coast, northern Chile | Flooding and heavy rain disrupting mines | Upward | Nasdaq, Sep 2015 (excessive South American rain can affect copper mining/transport); MINING.COM, May 2015 (Chile flooding, output cuts) |
| Live cattle | Australia | Drought forces herd destocking and slaughter | Near-term downward (slaughter surge), tighter later | Reuters, Sep 2015 (Australia raised its beef-export forecast 20% on near-record El Niño-driven drought slaughter) |
| Vanilla | Madagascar (Southwest Indian Ocean) | El Niño suppresses Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone activity — protective, because Madagascar cyclones are the vanilla destruction mechanism | Protective/neutral — fewer cyclones, less disruption risk | ReliefWeb/OCHA, Feb 2024 (SWIO cyclone activity expected below average in the 2023–24 El Niño) |
| Platinum | South Africa (Bushveld) | El Niño-linked drought strained mine water supplies — a plausible water-supply channel for platinum mines, weakest of the re-examined labels | Bearish if it constrains mine output (supply-side) | MiningMx, 6 Nov 2015 (possible 2016 water shortages; Implats identified shortages as a critical risk) |
Wars & conflicts
Armed conflict and sanctions as supply events.
Chicago SRW wheat futures rose early in 2022 and later gave back part of that rise. The Black Sea disruption and subsequent changes in trade and supply are documented, but these price windows do not isolate the war’s effect or show where prices would have been without it.
Published urea benchmarks rose during the June 2025 conflict, while several US agricultural futures ended broader monthly windows lower. Those different markets and windows cannot establish that the conflict had no agricultural price effect.
During Nov 2023 to Apr 2024, Chicago wheat futures rose slightly while corn and soybeans fell, alongside Red Sea shipping disruption. These benchmarks do not measure freight or delivered import costs, and their net changes cannot establish that the disruption had no commodity-price effect.
Export bans
Export restrictions, reported expectations, and observed prices.
USDA’s September 2008 assessment identified export restrictions as a major contributor to the rice price surge despite record production and rising global stocks. Our US rough-rice futures comparisons describe a different benchmark; they do not quantify the restrictions’ effect.
Chicago SRW wheat (ZW=F) was up 20.1% from Jul to Dec 2010 month-end, but down 11.6% from Jul 2010 to Jun 2011. Different endpoints give different descriptions; neither comparison measures the ban’s price effect or proves that competitors fully offset it.
World Bank palm-oil monthly prices rose 2.0% from Apr to May 2022 and fell 40.5% from Mar to Jul. These windows overlap a short export ban and a wider vegetable-oil correction; they do not measure the ban’s independent price effect.
FAO’s All Rice Price Index rose 9.8% from Jul to Aug 2023. US rough-rice futures ended Jul 2023 to Sep 2024 down 1.2%, but that different benchmark and longer window cannot describe Asian rice markets’ reaction or measure the ban’s effect.
Climate drivers
El Niño and other recurring climate mechanisms.
CBOT corn (ZC=F) rose 22.3% from Feb to Aug 2012 month-end, then fell 38.3% by Aug 2013. Those comparisons span different harvests and contracts; they do not isolate drought damage or establish that the next harvest will reverse a weather shock.
ICE arabica Coffee C (KC=F) rose 95.7% from Jan 2024 to Mar 2025 month-end, then fell 19.2% by June. This is not a robusta benchmark, and these windows do not separate Brazil’s weather from inventories, demand, positioning, or conditions in other origins.
ICE US cocoa (CC=F) rose 352.3% from Jan 2023 to Dec 2024 month-end, then fell 32.3% by Mar 2025. Reported deficits provide context, but these price comparisons do not quantify the contributions of weather, disease, inventories, demand, or positioning.
Drought-driven liquidation is a two-sided shock: more cattle shipped now can mean fewer cattle later. As of 2026-10-07 the direction is genuinely mixed, so this record's job is to watch whether shipments reverse and the supply score moves by the 2026-11-06 check-back — not to call the price.
Disruptions across markets
Physical disruptions and prices observed over different windows.
Chicago SRW wheat (ZW=F) rose 4.6% from Jun to Jul 2023 month-end, then stood 14.9% below June by September. The later decline does not show that leaving the grain deal had no bullish effect; prices might have fallen further without it.
The Ever Given blockage delayed shipping for six days. This record contains contemporary oil reporting but no verified agricultural event-window price comparison; it cannot establish the absence of an agricultural price effect.
A cluster of supply-tightening lumber headlines in early October 2026 coincided with LBR=F falling about 10% over the prior 20 days. The narrative and the price were telling different stories; this record exists to check which one was right by the 2026-11-06 check-back.
A 16% three-week rally in OJ=F arrived in September–October 2026 with no identifiable supply shock in the screened evidence. The honest lesson is about the limits of shock narratives: prices move on more than documented disruptions, and a WATCH score without a mechanism is a question, not an answer.
Every price number in these records is computed from our price series with its instrument and measurement window labeled — or cited to the named source and date shown. Nothing is interpolated; missing data is shown as missing. Secondary press quotes are reported as published and were not individually audited against primary sources.
The data
Every price spike our research could attribute to a documented cause, across all tracked commodities. This is a handpicked sample — what followed these large spikes, not what shocks typically do. For the event-first view — including the times the obvious trade was wrong — see Stories above.
Playbook by cause
What followed large labeled spikes, by cause — medians across all commodities. A handpicked sample, not a base rate. Aftermath is vs the spike-month reading, not the peak. Tap a card to filter the cases below.
This shows what followed large price spikes — not what each kind of shock typically does. Typical-vs-rare is established in the event records.
- weathern = 12 labeledMedian run-up+55.5%6 mo later-9.9%12 mo later-22.1%
- geopoliticsn = 5 labeledMedian run-up+94.4%6 mo later-3.0%12 mo later-34.8%
- warn = 2 labeledRun-ups+26.5%, +44.0%6 mo later-13.8%12 mo later-23.9%
- supplyn = 6 labeledMedian run-up+54.9%6 mo later-19.1%12 mo later-18.2%
- demandn = 3 labeledMedian run-up+51.2%6 mo later+4.2%12 mo later+5.2%
- marketsn = 1 labeledRun-ups+41.9%6 mo later+1.0%12 mo later-15.9%
All cases
Sorted by size of the run-up.
- +175.5%Export bans (India, Vietnam, others) + importer panic-buying6 mo later -32.8%·12 mo later -39.4%
- +168.3%West Africa cocoa, 2023–246 mo later -31.6%·12 mo later -16.3%
- +136.2%Pakistan floods cut crop; India halted export registrations6 mo later -46.4%·12 mo later -52.8%
- +100.0%Forecast 2000/01 deficit after Brazil drought cuts cane6 mo later -9.1%·12 mo later -22.7%
- +94.4%Russia heatwave; Aug-2010 export ban after ~20% crop loss6 mo later +6.5%·12 mo later -12.2%
- +88.5%Mine strikes spark squeeze; funds pile in6 mo later -12.6%·12 mo later -4.5%
- +86.0%China infrastructure buying on record Feb-2009 imports6 mo later +11.1%·12 mo later +18.2%
- +75.5%Severe Brazil drought threatens 2014/15 arabica crop6 mo later -2.1%·12 mo later -26.1%
- +70.0%India drought spurs import-surge expectations; Brazil crop doubts6 mo later -19.6%·12 mo later -2.0%
- +69.0%Second straight small world crop; record prices6 mo later +8.1%·12 mo later -29.2%
- +68.4%Brazil 2005/06 crop damage forecasts widen deficit6 mo later -26.5%·12 mo later -15.8%
- +58.2%South Africa power crisis halts mines, slashes output6 mo later -25.7%·12 mo later -48.4%
- +57.1%Brazil record drought slashes 2025/26 crop outlook6 mo later -10.7%·12 mo later -21.8%
- +53.8%2002 drought slashes US, Canada, Australia wheat harvests6 mo later -27.2%·12 mo later -22.5%
- +51.6%West Africa cocoa, 2023–246 mo later -31.4%·12 mo later -53.8%
- +51.2%China's record buying on hog-herd rebuild; La Nina dryness6 mo later +4.2%·12 mo later +5.2%
- +49.1%2007-08 food crisis: tight stocks, weak dollar, strong demand6 mo later -3.0%·12 mo later -34.8%
- +44.0%Black Sea, 20226 mo later -13.8%·12 mo later -23.9%
- +43.8%Record high on supply worries; ~500kt projected deficit6 mo later -4.3%·12 mo later -7.7%
- +42.7%Brazil frost, Jul 20216 mo later +10.2%·12 mo later -0.4%
- +41.9%ETF hoarding bids: JPMorgan held ~50% of LME deliverable stock6 mo later +1.0%·12 mo later -15.9%
- +39.5%October WASDE cut US crop; speculative longs surged6 mo later +29.4%·12 mo later -20.1%
- +37.9%La Nina record rains slash Colombia crop outlook6 mo later -17.5%·12 mo later -36.3%
- +36.2%La Nina drought hits Argentina/Brazil; Russia wheat ban spillover6 mo later +1.8%·12 mo later -11.5%
- +33.2%Worst US drought since 1956 crushes corn/soy yields6 mo later -11.2%·12 mo later -23.7%
- +32.8%China import surge; world stocks lowest since 1994/956 mo later -9.4%·12 mo later -36.5%
- +30.3%India rice export curbs, 20236 mo later -1.1%·12 mo later -6.5%
- +26.5%Iran-war fertilizer shock + emerging El Nino6 mo later —·12 mo later —
- +22.1%US drought, 20126 mo later -9.0%·12 mo later -16.1%