Coffee

What world events mean for coffee — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress

2/10Muted

12-month price change

-24.2%

Sep ’25 → Sep ’26

Top exporter

34.5%

Brazil · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar

11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a coffee spike, or pass on more than the coffee alone.

Ground roast coffee (US)

Ground roast coffee (US) costs about $9.30 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
When coffee prices jump, ground coffee usually follows 0–12 months later.
Last time this happened: when coffee futures jumped +95.7% (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025), ground coffee moved Jan 2024 ($6.124/lb) → Mar 2025 ($7.385/lb, +20.6%) → Jun 2025 ($8.132/lb, +32.8%) (BLS APU0000717311).
Other forces were pushing too: Vietnam's robusta drought lifted robusta prices in parallel; broad 2024–25 food-at-home inflation also pushed shelf prices.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000717311) Lag basis: USDA ERS ERR-38 (Leibtag et al.): ~2¢ retail response in the current quarter per 10¢ green-bean cost change; full cent-for-cent pass-through over several quarters.

Coffee is in your everyday life as your morning cup.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters

Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Brazil

34.5% of world coffee exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 57.5% of world exports.

Brazil accounts for 34.5% of the world's exported coffee by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Coffee

Retail shelf and coffee shops

grocery-store coffee · coffee-shop drinks

No documented company exposure in our sources for Roasters and manufacturers buy green coffee and reset list prices.

A coffee supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

Brazildominant
34.5% of world exports
Vietnam
12.1% of world exports
Colombia
10.9% of world exports
Indonesia
4.6% of world exports
Ethiopia
4.3% of world exports

Next tier: Uganda (4.2%), Honduras (4%), Peru (3.5%)

Top importers

United States
17.8% of world imports22.3% from Brazil
Germany
10.8% of world imports35.7% from Brazil
France
6.2% of world imports
Italy
6% of world imports31.1% from Brazil
Spain
3.7% of world imports24.4% from Vietnam

An importer is “critical” here by share of world coffee imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.