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In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a coffee spike, or pass on more than the coffee alone.

Ground roast coffee (US)

  • Ground roast coffee (US) costs about $9.30 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • When coffee prices jump, ground coffee usually follows 0–12 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when coffee futures jumped +95.7% (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025), ground coffee moved Jan 2024 ($6.124/lb) → Mar 2025 ($7.385/lb, +20.6%) → Jun 2025 ($8.132/lb, +32.8%) (BLS APU0000717311).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Vietnam's robusta drought lifted robusta prices in parallel; broad 2024–25 food-at-home inflation also pushed shelf prices.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000717311) Lag basis: USDA ERS ERR-38 (Leibtag et al.): ~2¢ retail response in the current quarter per 10¢ green-bean cost change; full cent-for-cent pass-through over several quarters.

The verdict

Coffee is falling.

KCZ26.NYB Dec-2026 backwardation (flattening) — prompt premium, inventories tight.

Falling

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
No sharp move this week
This year
Price down 17% over the past year
Where it comes from
Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia grow 58% of the world's coffee — concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if Brazil's harvests falter? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Coffee

What world events mean for coffee — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
3/10Limited
12-month price change
-16.9%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
34.5%
Brazil · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a coffee spike, or pass on more than the coffee alone.

Ground roast coffee (US)

  • Ground roast coffee (US) costs about $9.30 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • When coffee prices jump, ground coffee usually follows 0–12 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when coffee futures jumped +95.7% (Jan 2024 → Mar 2025), ground coffee moved Jan 2024 ($6.124/lb) → Mar 2025 ($7.385/lb, +20.6%) → Jun 2025 ($8.132/lb, +32.8%) (BLS APU0000717311).
  • Other forces were pushing too: Vietnam's robusta drought lifted robusta prices in parallel; broad 2024–25 food-at-home inflation also pushed shelf prices.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Coffee, 100%, ground roast, all sizes, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000717311) Lag basis: USDA ERS ERR-38 (Leibtag et al.): ~2¢ retail response in the current quarter per 10¢ green-bean cost change; full cent-for-cent pass-through over several quarters.

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Coffee is in your everyday life as your morning cup.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Brazil

34.5% of world coffee exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 57.5% of world exports.

Brazil accounts for 34.5% of the world's exported coffee by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Coffee
Retail shelf and coffee shops

grocery-store coffee · coffee-shop drinks

No documented company exposure in our sources for Roasters and manufacturers buy green coffee and reset list prices.

A coffee supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    34.5% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    12.1% of world exports

  • Colombia

    10.9% of world exports

  • Indonesia

    4.6% of world exports

  • Ethiopia

    4.3% of world exports

Next tier: Uganda (4.2%), Honduras (4%), Peru (3.5%)

Top importers

  • United States

    17.8% of world imports22.3% from Brazil

  • Germany

    10.8% of world imports35.7% from Brazil

  • France

    6.2% of world imports

  • Italy

    6% of world imports31.1% from Brazil

  • Spain

    3.7% of world imports24.4% from Vietnam

An importer is “critical” here by share of world coffee imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Coffee — market stress 3/10 (Limited) | Morrowfly