MORROWFLY
Sign in
← EventsExport bans

Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Apr – May 2022

The lesson: World Bank palm-oil monthly prices rose 2.0% from Apr to May 2022 and fell 40.5% from Mar to Jul. These windows overlap a short export ban and a wider vegetable-oil correction; they do not measure the ban’s independent price effect.

What happened

On 22 Apr 2022 Indonesia announced a palm-oil export ban (Reuters), expanded on 27 Apr to crude palm oil and others, effective 28 Apr 'until further notice' — aiming to push domestic bulk cooking oil down to 14,000 rupiah a litre. The ban lasted about three weeks: lifted 23 May after farmer protests and overflowing storage tanks, replaced by domestic-market obligations.

Weather context
  • Indonesia (Riau palm centroid) (Mar-Aug 2022): +0.15°C vs the 1991–2020 baseline; rainfall +32.0% vs baseline (45 days with <1mm rain). Weather was not the driver: near-normal temperatures and above-normal rain; the ban was policy.

One region centroid is illustrative, not field-level truth; baseline is the 1991–2020 day-of-year mean. Weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com.

What everyone expected

Reuters (22 Apr 2022): the ban 'shocked global edible oils markets that already reached record high prices this year, and sparked alarm among major importers.' Reuters (25 Apr 2022): 'Global edible oil consumers have no option but to pay top dollar for supplies' — LMC's James Fry: 'Indonesia's decision affects not only palm oil availability, but vegetable oils worldwide.'

As reported at the time: Reuters, 22 Apr 2022 · Reuters, 25 Apr 2022

Observed prices and measurement limits

These are changes in the named benchmarks over the stated windows, not estimates of the event’s effect. Endpoints omit interim moves. A supply shock may have kept prices above where they would otherwise have been, even if the measured change is negative.

  • Palm oil
    Apr 2022 → May 2022 · World Bank Pink Sheet monthly prices
    +2.0%

    Monthly average palm-oil prices increased from April to May; the short ban occupies only part of these months.

  • Palm oil
    Mar 2022 → Jul 2022 · World Bank Pink Sheet monthly prices
    -40.5%

    The comparison begins before the ban and extends after its removal. It includes a wider vegetable-oil correction and cannot isolate the policy effect.

The windows include changes in other vegetable-oil markets and extend beyond the ban. Monthly average prices differ from event-day futures or spot quotes. No matched comparison separates the ban from changes in harvests, substitution, or demand.

Evidence and interpretation

The cited reporting describes domestic stock accumulation during the ban and later policy measures to encourage exports. Restricted outflows could add pressure to domestic storage, while resumed exports could increase availability abroad. Those channels need separate domestic and international observations; the broad monthly price comparison cannot quantify them or prove they caused the decline.

How this record has changed

Living document — every material change is logged here, newest first.

  1. New evidence2026-11-02

    Month-end evidence ran against the weak-price setup: the December 2026 crude palm oil contract closed October at RM 4,588 per tonne on October 30 (up RM 58 on the day, per Bernama), above the RM 4,535 October 2 settlement referenced in this record's October 31 expectation, and the benchmark January 2027 contract closed at RM 4,681, with the benchmark up 1.56 percent across October for a fourth monthly rise in five months. Exports were strong rather than weak: AmSpec estimated Malaysia's October 1 to 31 palm oil exports at 1,649,495 metric tons, up 73 percent from 950,957 metric tons in September, while the record September stocks of 3.51 million tonnes still await the MPOB October print due November 10. Indonesia also cut its export charges for November: the reference price fell 6.07 percent to US$978.90 per tonne from US$1,042.15, taking the crude palm oil export duty to US$124 per tonne from US$178 and the 12.5 percent levy to US$122.36, a combined US$246.36 against US$308.27 in October.

    PalmOilMagazine, 2026-10-31, reporting Bernama (Bursa Malaysia October 30 closes: December 2026 RM 4,588, January 2027 RM 4,681) · UkrAgroConsult, 2026-10-30, reporting Reuters (benchmark up 1.43 percent on October 30; October up 1.56 percent, fourth monthly rise in five) · Price Futures Group Grains Report, 2026-11-02, carrying Dow Jones (AmSpec: October 1 to 31 exports 1,649,495 metric tons, up 73 percent on month) · PalmOilMagazine, 2026-11-02 (Indonesia November reference price US$978.90 per tonne, down 6.07 percent; export duty US$124; levy US$122.36) · Reuters via TradingView, 2026-10-29 (Indonesia sets November reference price at $978.90 per ton; export tax $124 from $178)

  2. New evidence2026-10-22

    Malaysian palm oil coverage turned supply-tight on October 22: Nikkei Asia reported Southeast Asia drought behind an outlook for palm oil prices to stay high next year, CMB News reported an October export surge lifting palm oil prices despite weak vegetable-oil sentiment, and The Edge Malaysia reported the Malaysian Palm Oil Council citing stronger exports and an output decline in its November outlook. Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil (FCPO) stood at 4,767 ringgit per tonne as of October 21, up 1.43 percent over 5 days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-22) scored palm oil QUIET with a total of 2 and a supply score of 2, and palm oil news volume reached 18 articles against a 30-day median of 5. The Straits Times item in the same evidence set, dated October 21, reported Indonesian haze threatening the pollinator insects behind palm oil output. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-21, observe per MPOB monthly reporting whether Malaysian palm oil output and stocks confirm the reported output decline. Check-back: 2026-12-21.

    Nikkei Asia: Palm oil prices to stay high next year on Southeast Asia drought (2026-10-22) · CMB News: Palm Oil Market: October Export Surge Lifts Prices Despite Weak Vegoil Sentiment (2026-10-22) · The Edge Malaysia: Palm oil to stay above RM4,600 in November on stronger export, output decline, MPOC (2026-10-22) · The Straits Times: Indonesia haze threatens tiny bugs that power palm oil output (2026-10-21)

  3. New evidence2026-10-20

    Malaysian palm oil stocks reached a record 3.5 million tonnes, reported by NST Online on October 21, and Malaysia is considering waiving crude palm oil export taxes to clear the glut, reported by Bloomberg via The Edge Malaysia on October 20. The Edge Malaysia also reported on October 20 that an analyst said an export tax waiver could help Malaysia regain market share. Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil (FCPO) stood at 4,766 ringgit per tonne as of October 19, up 2.78 percent over 5 days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-20) scored palm oil QUIET with a total of 2 and a supply score of 1. In the same evidence set, InfoSAWIT reported that Indonesian KPBN crude palm oil prices rose on October 19 and again on October 20, with Malaysian bourse trading strengthening. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-19, observe per Malaysian official and MPOB reporting whether the export tax waiver was implemented and whether Malaysian palm oil stocks moved down from the reported record of 3.5 million tonnes. Check-back: 2026-12-19.

    NST Online: Malaysia mulls CPO tax waiver as palm oil stocks hit record 3.5mil tonnes (2026-10-21) · The Edge Malaysia / Bloomberg: Malaysia considers waiving palm oil export taxes to clear glut (2026-10-20) · The Edge Malaysia: Palm oil export tax waiver could help Malaysia regain market share, says analyst (2026-10-20) · CMB News: Palm Oil Market Update: Inventories, Exports and Price Outlook (2026-10-20) · InfoSAWIT: Harga CPO KPBN Inacom Naik Pada Selasa (20/10/2026), Perdagangan CPO di Bursa Malaysia Menguat (2026-10-20)

  4. New evidence2026-10-19

    Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate, the modern, structural analogue of the 2022 export ban's domestic-first logic, took legal effect on Jul 1, 2026 and was formally launched on Jul 9, with full implementation scheduled from Oct 1 after a three-month transition; the government projects it will require 16.7-18 million kilolitres of biodiesel and roughly 15.2-16.3 million tonnes of crude palm oil a year. IPOSS's Q4 2026 outlook, published Oct 14, projects domestic palm oil consumption will surpass exports for the first time in 2026, at 51.3% of total use versus 48.7% for exports, with production estimated at 52.4 million tons (up 1.86% from 2025) against domestic consumption up 7.4% to around 27.1 million tons, driven mainly by B50 feedstock demand.

    East Asia Forum, 2026-10-07 (B50 legal effect, launch and full-implementation dates; government CPO requirement projections) · Palm Oil Magazine, 2026-10-17, reporting IPOSS Indonesia Palm Oil Industry Outlook Q4 2026 (published 2026-10-14)

  5. New evidence2026-10-19

    FCPO (MPOC) stood at RM4,769 per tonne as of October 16, up 3.85 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-19) scored palm oil at QUIET with a supply score of 1. Reuters reported on October 19 that El Nino-powered drought has left Indonesian palm farmers high and dry as rivers recede, with the Japan Times (via UA.NEWS, 2026-10-19) reporting the drought affecting 13 palm oil mills. TradingView reported on October 19 that palm oil held at a 3-week high on export strength. The October 15 items published on 2026-10-16 and the October 16 items published on 2026-10-17 are not re-sourced. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-18, observe per MPOB and GAPKI reporting whether drought conditions continued to affect Indonesian palm-oil milling and transport and how Malaysian export volumes moved. Check-back: 2026-12-18.

    Reuters: El Nino-powered drought leaves Indonesian palm farmers high and dry as river recedes (2026-10-19) · The Japan Times (via UA.NEWS): Drought in Indonesia affects 13 palm oil mills (2026-10-19) · TradingView: Palm Oil Stays at 3-Week High on Export Strength (2026-10-19)

  6. New evidence2026-10-16

    FCPO palm oil stood at 4,619 ringgit per tonne as of October 15, down 0.9 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 2026-10-16), with the monitor scoring palm oil supply at 1 and the overall level QUIET. UkrAgroConsult reported on October 16 that palm oil prices rose nearly 4 percent over the week on stronger Malaysian exports. InfoSAWIT reported on October 16 that the KPBN Inacom crude palm oil price was withdrawn at the Friday auction while crude palm oil trading on Bursa Malaysia closed higher. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-15, observe per MPOB and GAPKI reporting whether Malaysian export growth continued and whether Indonesian domestic pricing and absorption developed as reported. Check-back: 2026-12-15.

    UkrAgroConsult: Palm oil prices rise nearly 4% over the week on stronger Malaysian exports (2026-10-16) · InfoSAWIT: Harga CPO KPBN Inacom Withdraw Pada Jumat (16/10/2026), Perdagangan CPO di Bursa Malaysia Ditutup Menguat (2026-10-16)

  7. New evidence2026-10-15

    FCPO palm oil stood at 4,700 ringgit per tonne as of October 14, up 3.89 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 2026-10-15), with the monitor scoring palm oil supply at 1 and the overall level QUIET. On October 15 palm oil prices fell despite a sharp rise in Malaysian exports (UkrAgroConsult, 2026-10-15), and palm oil slipped as weaker rival oils outweighed a strong export outlook (TradingView, 2026-10-15). Indonesia Business Post reported on October 15 that Indonesia is targeting South Asia with crude palm oil exports to India and Pakistan, and InfoSAWIT reported on October 15 that Indonesian domestic palm consumption is projected to exceed exports in 2026. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-14, observe per MPOB and GAPKI reporting whether Malaysian export growth continued and whether Indonesian domestic consumption developed as reported. Check-back: 2026-12-14.

    UkrAgroConsult: Palm oil prices fall despite sharp rise in Malaysian exports (2026-10-15) · TradingView: Palm oil slips as weaker rival oils outweigh strong export outlook (2026-10-15) · Indonesia Business Post: Indonesia targets South Asia with CPO exports to India, Pakistan (2026-10-15) · InfoSAWIT: Konsumsi Domestik Sawit Indonesia Diproyeksikan Lampaui Ekspor pada 2026 (2026-10-15)

  8. New evidence2026-10-14

    FCPO palm oil stood at 4,682 ringgit per tonne as of October 13, up 2.68 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 2026-10-14). InfoSAWIT reported on October 14 that CPO production at one Indonesian producer, CSRA, rose 25 percent, with the company relying on plantation productivity to maintain growth; that figure is company-level and is not a national production estimate. The Jakarta Globe reported on October 14 that Cameroon is eyeing Indonesian palm oil technology. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-13, observe per MPOB and GAPKI reporting whether Indonesian and Malaysian production and export volumes showed company-level production gains broadening into national figures. Check-back: 2026-12-13.

    InfoSAWIT: Produksi CPO CSRA Naik 25%, Perusahaan Andalkan Produktivitas Kebun untuk Menjaga Pertumbuhan (2026-10-14) · Jakarta Globe: Cameroon Eyes Indonesian Palm Oil Tech Amid African Bug Import (2026-10-14)

  9. New evidence2026-10-13

    Malaysian palm oil reached a two-week high on October 13 amid record inventory and export growth, according to KuCoin reporting, while Briefs Finance on October 13 described the palm oil outlook as a glut now with a shortage next year, a source outlook that is not adopted here as a Morrowfly view. InfoSAWIT reported on October 13 that CPO prices at KPBN Inacom fell that day while trading on the Malaysian exchange strengthened, and the Morrowfly monitor dashboard (run 2026-10-13) put FCPO at 4,637 ringgit per tonne as of October 12. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-12, observe per MPOB and GAPKI reporting whether Malaysian inventories and export volumes moved in line with the record inventory and export growth reported on October 13. Check-back: 2026-12-12.

    KuCoin: Malaysian palm oil reaches two-week high amid record inventory and export growth (2026-10-13) · Briefs Finance: Palm Oil Outlook: Glut Now, Shortage Next Year (2026-10-13) · InfoSAWIT: Harga CPO KPBN Inacom Turun Pada Selasa (13/10/2026), Perdagangan CPO di Bursa Malaysia Menguat (2026-10-13)

  10. New evidence2026-10-12

    GAPKI figures reported on October 12 by UkrAgroConsult and VOI put Indonesian palm oil exports in 2027 at 26.5 million tons, nearly 15 percent below the comparison level in the same reporting, while USDA figures reported by Oils and Fats International put Malaysian 2026/27 palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes. UkrAgroConsult also reported Malaysian palm oil rising on strong export demand on October 12, and the Morrowfly monitor dashboard (run 2026-10-12) put FCPO at 4,592 ringgit per tonne as of October 9. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-11, observe per GAPKI and MPOB reporting whether Indonesian export volumes and export policy settings moved in line with the lower export figures reported on October 12. Check-back: 2026-12-11.

    UkrAgroConsult: Indonesia to cut palm oil exports by nearly 15% in 2027 - GAPKI (2026-10-12) · VOI: Gapki Projects Indonesian Palm Oil Exports to Fall to 26.5 Million Tons Next Year (2026-10-12) · Oils & Fats International: USDA forecasts Malaysian 2026/27 palm oil production at 19.7M tonnes (2026-10-12) · UkrAgroConsult: Malaysian palm oil rises on strong export demand (2026-10-12)

  11. New evidence2026-10-12

    MPOB's September 2026 data, released Oct 12, confirmed the inventory overhang flagged in the Oct 5 revision and then some: total stocks hit a record 3.51 million tonnes, up 24.5% m/m and above the Reuters poll forecast of 3.37Mt, beating the Dec 2018 record of 3.22Mt. CPO output rose 16.5% to 2.12Mt (a fourth straight monthly gain, highest since Aug 2015) while exports fell 12.1% to 1.12Mt, a second monthly decline.

    Finimize: Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles set a new record in September (Oct 12, citing MPOB and a Reuters poll) · Commodity Board: Record Malaysian stocks cap futures upside, Dec 2018 record 3.22Mt (Oct 8)

  12. New evidence2026-10-09

    On the demand side, Chicago and Dalian soyoil prices firmed during the Oct 5-9 week, giving CPO some support; the Chicago contract had dipped 0.59% on Sep 30. Offset risks persist: an Indian industry group expects sunflower oil imports to jump 30% to 3.5Mt in 2026/27 after India's duty cut while palm oil imports hold steady, and Commodity Board notes that elevated edible-oil stocks in India and China will buffer any near-term pick-up in import demand.

    Finimize: Palm oil slipped again as exports softened (Oct 1, citing Reuters) · Commodity Board: Record Malaysian stocks cap futures upside, soybean complex notes (Oct 8)

  13. New evidence2026-10-09

    Bursa CPO futures rebounded in the Oct 5-9 week, with the December 2026 contract up 1.26% on the week (its first weekly gain in three) before falling 1.48% on Friday Oct 9 to close at MYR 4,592/t. The Friday drop followed Malaysia's Budget 2027, which omitted the expected CPO export duty waiver that traders had hoped would make Malaysian shipments more competitive with Indonesia; the budget offered only smallholder support measures. The curve sat in mild contango on Oct 8 (Nov 4,437, Dec ~4,553-4,560, Jan 4,665), with firmer Dalian and Chicago soyoil prices supporting and record stocks plus lower crude oil weighing.

    Bernama via Asia News Today: CPO futures retreat after no export duty waiver in Budget 2027 (Oct 9) · AgriInsite: Palm oil falls more than 1% after Malaysia leaves export duty unchanged (Oct 10) · Commodity Board: Record Malaysian stocks cap futures upside, MDEX curve Oct 8 (Oct 8)

  14. New evidence2026-10-08

    A new export-policy development entered the palm-oil market: Indonesia's export overhaul could tighten palm oil supplies from 2027 (ChemAnalyst, Oct 8; BusinessLine, Oct 8). Separately, Malaysia hopes to sustain palm-oil export growth to the Philippines after shipments topped 700,000 metric tons (BusinessWorld Online, Oct 7). Malaysian CPO futures (MPOC/FCPO) were 4,524 RM/tonne asof Oct 7, and the monitor's palm-oil score level stayed QUIET. By 2026-12-07, observe per Indonesian trade-ministry and MPOC reporting whether the export overhaul materializes and whether CPO availability moves.

    ChemAnalyst: Indonesia Export Shake-Up Threatens Palm Oil Supply From 2027 (2026-10-08) · BusinessLine: Indonesia export overhaul may tighten palm oil supplies, lift prices (2026-10-08) · BusinessWorld Online: Malaysia hoping to sustain palm oil export growth to PHL after shipments top 700,000 metric tons (2026-10-07)

  15. New evidence2026-10-08

    GAPKI used GLOBOIL India 2026 to outline three structural reforms that could reshape Indonesian CPO trade from 2027: single-gate exports through state-owned DSI (transition until Dec 2026, then DSI becomes exporter of record for contracts, permits, levies and FX receipts from Jan 1, 2027), a new OJK-supervised commodities exchange (BMKS) launching Jan 1, 2027 to set an Indonesia Reference Price, and B50 with full implementation targeted for 2027, which GAPKI says will progressively reduce CPO available for export. Indonesia also set its October CPO reference price at USD 1,042.15/t (up 3.4% m/m), export duty at USD 178/t and levy at 12.5% (~USD 130.27/t); GAPKI expects tighter Indonesian export availability to put upward pressure on global prices if the reforms are implemented transparently.

    Hindu BusinessLine: Indonesia export overhaul may tighten palm oil supplies, lift prices (Oct 8) · Daily News India: Indonesia's palm oil industry outlines 2027 policy shifts at GLOBOIL India 2026 (Oct 6) · Palm Oil Magazine: Indonesia October CPO reference price USD 1,042.15, export duty USD 178, levy USD 130.27 (Oct 2)

  16. New evidence2026-10-05

    Bursa Malaysia CPO futures reversed lower late-Sep into Oct 2 as high inventories and weak exports outweighed El Niño supply fears. Oct 2 closes: October 2026 MYR 4,332-4,354/t, November 2026 MYR 4,411-4,441, December 2026 MYR 4,503-4,535 (ranges reflect a discrepancy between Bernama-sourced dailies at the higher end and commodity-board at the lower end). Drivers: ITS estimated Malaysia's September palm oil exports at ~1.13M tonnes, down 17.1% m/m; MPOB August data showed CPO output ~1.82MT (+1.4% m/m), total stocks up 7.5% m/m to 2.82MT with CPO stocks alone up 15.2%; weak rival vegetable oils (CBOT soyoil, Dalian, sunflower) pressured sentiment; market commentary calls it a transition from bull to range-bound, with El Niño risk and Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate as a floor.

    Malaysian Tribune (Bernama) - CPO futures decline on inventory and export challenges, Oct 2 closes, ITS Sept exports · Malaysian Tribune (Bernama) - CPO futures decline amid weak soyoil, ITS 17.1% m/m · Commodity Board - Oct 2 MDEX closes (4,332/4,411/4,503), India exports, El Nino outlook · Commodity Board - Sep 29 MDEX strip, MPOB August data, bull-to-range-bound read · KLScreener (Bernama/The Star) - MPOB August 2026: total stocks +7.48%, CPO stocks +15.2%, output +1.39% · TradingView/Dow Jones - cargo surveyors: exports fell 17.1%-28.8% m/m in September

  17. Correction2026-09-25

    Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a declining price does not establish that a supply shock had no supportive effect. Removed unsupported claims about offsetting drivers and clarified benchmark and window limits.

    Commodity-trader feedback supplied by the user; editorial review of bundled event observations (25 Sep 2026)

  18. New evidence2026-09-24

    A new policy lever entered the palm-oil market this week: Nation Thailand reports Thailand plans to raise rice and crude palm oil reserves ahead of El Nino — state stockpiling that pulls CPO out of spot flows — while a palm-oil shortage is already pushing bread prices up in Russia (nemoskva.net). In parallel, Indonesia's new commodity export agency Danantara hired a palm unit head (The Edge Malaysia), a neutral institutional move. Malaysian palm oil futures closed at RM4,768 per tonne on September 23, down 2.38% over 5 days. Unlike the 2022 event's export ban, the Thai move is precautionary stockpiling — but it is still a government policy intervention tightening physical palm-oil flows. By 2026-11-23, observe per Thai government statements whether the CPO reserve build was implemented and at what size, and per Russian price reporting whether the bread-price pressure persisted or eased. Check back 2026-11-23.

    Nation Thailand: Thailand plans to raise rice and crude palm oil reserves for El Nino (2026-09-24) · nemoskva.net: bread prices rising due to palm oil shortage (2026-09-21) · The Edge Malaysia: Indonesia commodity export agency Danantara hires palm unit head (2026-09-24)

  19. New evidence2026-09-23

    Malaysian palm oil futures swung from a 21-month high to a more-than-five-week low in one week: the December 2026 CPO contract closed at RM4,810 per ton (about $1,181/t) on September 22, the lowest level in more than five weeks, after falling 1.16% to RM4,940 on September 17 and 0.84% to RM4,857 on September 21 (Palm Oil Magazine; ukragroconsult). September 1-20 Malaysian exports were estimated down 12.8–24.7% month-on-month while ending stocks were expected to exceed 3 million tons, possibly approaching record levels; weaker crude on Iran/Hormuz de-escalation talk and a stronger ringgit added pressure. Partly offsetting: India's August palm oil imports rose 7% month-on-month to 782,761 tonnes, the highest since February (TradingView, September 17), and Malaysia kept its October crude palm oil export duty at 10% while raising the reference price.

    Ukragroconsult, 22 Sep 2026 · Palm Oil Magazine, 18 Sep 2026 · Palm Oil Magazine, 22 Sep 2026 · TradingView (Trading Economics), 17 Sep 2026

  20. New evidence2026-09-15

    Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window: anomaly figures vs the 1991-2020 baseline from Morrowfly's research vintage v1_2026-09-15 (raw daily series stay in research; only derived anomalies shown). Attribution: weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com.

    Morrowfly research vintage v1_2026-09-15 (ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo; USDA WASDE as-published vintages)

  21. Correction2026-09-15

    An independent adversarial review labeled the −40.5% Mar→Jul 2022 window as beginning before the ban announcement and spanning the broader vegetable-oil correction — the record no longer presents timing alone as proof the ban caused the collapse. No new outcome data was added.

    Morrowfly internal adversarial review (15 Sep 2026)

Transmission

  • Palm oil
    export restriction

    Indonesia supplies about three-fifths of the world's palm oil (Reuters, Apr 2022) — the ban hit the single largest chokepoint in edible oils.

Sources

Notes

  • Prices are monthly averages from our series (World Bank Pink Sheet; crude: EIA) unless noted; windows are labeled beside each number.
  • Generic futures series do not identify the delivery month at each observation or document the provider’s roll schedule and adjustment method. These price comparisons are not returns from holding one contract or following a specified roll strategy. Wheat comparisons also depend on protein, end use, and crop calendar.
  • Secondary press quotes are reported as published and were not individually audited against primary sources.
  • Illustrative scenario record. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.