Palm oil
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — US retail cooking-oil prices blend palm with soybean, canola and other oils, so no published series isolates palm oil at the shelf.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
The verdict
El Niño is shifting growing weather worldwide.
CalmIllustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.
The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.
What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.
Play the what-if →What world events mean for palm oil — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.
Palm oil
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — US retail cooking-oil prices blend palm with soybean, canola and other oils, so no published series isolates palm oil at the shelf.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet
Palm oil is in your everyday life as your snacks & shampoo.
Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume
48.6% of world palm oil exports · 2024 trade value
Top 3 exporters: 84.7% of world exports.
Indonesia accounts for 48.6% of the world's exported palm oil by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.
What-if presets
refined/bleached/deodorized palm oil · margarine · chocolate · instant noodles · soap
packaged snacks · chocolate bars · coffee creamer · laundry detergent · shampoo
A palm oil supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.
Critical exporters & importers
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagTop exporters
Indonesiadominant
48.6% of world exports
Malaysiadominant
34.1% of world exports
Netherlands
2% of world exports
Thailand
1.9% of world exports
Papua New Guinea
1.6% of world exports
Next tier: Guatemala (1.3%), Colombia (0.9%)
Top importers
19.8% of world imports53.1% from Indonesia
7.4% of world imports65.4% from Indonesia
6.4% of world imports87.4% from Indonesia
4.4% of world imports84.8% from Indonesia
3.9% of world imports29.4% from Malaysia
An importer is “critical” here by share of world palm oil imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.
Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal · Cape of Good Hope
Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.
Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.