Rice
ELEVATEDStress 6/10
- price +4.3% in 5d
- +11.0% in 20d
- at 20-day high
Guided scenario
What if India shuts rice exports again?
India is the top rice exporter. Explore what another export curb would expose.
1The setup
India is 30.0% of world rice exports by value (2024 vintage) — the top exporter. When it curbed exports in July 2023, Thai rice hit an 11-year high within months. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed the market is, and lets you model a curb yourself.
2Right now
Monitor data as of Sep 24, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.
3The exposure
- India30.0%
- Thailand17.0%
- Pakistan10.3%
- Vietnam10.3%
- United States6.4%
How the shock travels
Follow the shock downstream — from the rice market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.
Day 0: rice futures spike
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
rough rice futuresRice millers and wholesale rice
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
milled white ricebrown ricebulk ricePackaged rice on the shelf
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
packaged riceinstant riceready-to-serve riceEbro Foods
EBRODescribed as the world's largest rice producer; owns Minute Rice, Mahatma and Success brands, with rice a majority of group sales
Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.
Trade map
Who ships it, who can’t do without it
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagSourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.
Rice · India
Top exporters
Indiadominant
30% of world exports
Thailand
17% of world exports
Pakistan
10.3% of world exports
Vietnam
10.3% of world exports
United States
6.4% of world exports
Note: primary 100630 (semi/wholly milled); paddy 100610 barely trades Build used full HS 1006 (100610-100640).
Exposed importers
Shocked exporters: India
74.9% of Saudi Arabia’s rice imports come from India
56.5% of Iraq’s rice imports come from India
India to Mediterranean/Europe rice lane
via Suez Canal / Bab el-Mandeb · 15% of rice and wheat exports combined (not rice-only)
Partial figure — adjacent basis, not lane-only — Partial/adjacent figure: the Suez Canal handles at least 15% of global rice AND wheat exports combined (Chatham House research via gCaptain, Mar 2021 Ever Given coverage). No rice-only Suez share found -- do not read as a rice-only figure.
Source: Chatham House via gCaptain, 2021
How we map this
Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its rice imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.
4Adjust the assumptions
80%
Historical check: The closest episode, India rice export curbs, 2023, saw rice futures move -4.2% (modest band); your 80% disruption setting sits in the extreme band.
What share of India’s rice exports is disrupted.
Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted
Share of world exports
0%50%100% of world exports
India rice — 30.0% of world Rice exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)
Exposed under your assumptions: 24.0% (30.0% × 80% severity)
The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.
Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.
90d
Historical check: The closest episode, India rice export curbs, 2023, lasted 436 days (long); your 90-day duration sits in the medium band.
Resolution: Days the disruption lasts
60d
Your assumption — not a measured buffer.
Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer
Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 90 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption
30 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage
What this would have meant
At these settings, about 24.0% of the world's rice exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.
The closest recorded episode, India rice export curbs, 2023, saw rice futures fall -4.2% in 184 days (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023), and for consumers: white long-grain rice (US) moved from -1.3% to +7.5% (no lag window was published for this episode). Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.
Your settings aren't an exact match: your 80% disruption setting implies an extreme move, while the episode's futures move was -4.2% (modest).
What this assumes
- Exposure: Target share 30.0% × severity 80% = 24.0% exposed.
- Uncovered days: max(0, 90 − 60) = 30.
- Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
- Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
- Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
- Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Analog check
Your settings look closest to India rice export curbs, 2023 (same commodity, same shock type). The episode's measured moves, caveats included: rice futures -4.2% in 184 days (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023); White long-grain rice (US): the retail move wasn't measured for this episode — the futures leg above and the farm-share bound below are all we can honestly say. US retail rice is mostly domestic long-grain; Thai and Vietnamese exports filled the gap for importers while global prices rose..
Only about 11.8¢ of every US consumer food dollar — and 18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar — reaches the farm (USDA, 2024) — that's a ceiling, not a prediction: margins can absorb a spike or amplify it.
Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now. Your scenario differs: your 80% disruption setting implies an extreme move, while the episode's futures move was -4.2% (modest).
Read the full recordHow we matched this
- Commodity: requirement — Both are rice — non-rice episodes are excluded outright.
- Shock type: 2/2 — Both are a ban shock.
- Size: 0/1 — Your 80% disruption setting band: extreme; episode futures moved -4.2% (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023) — band: modest. Severity is % of shipments disrupted, not a price move: this banding is a v1 matching heuristic.
- Duration: 0/1 — Your disruption: 90-day (medium); episode: 436-day (long) — 20 Jul 2023 – 28 Sep 2024 export-ban window (repo event record india-rice-ban-2023).
- Supply concentration: 0/1 — Your hazard zone: 30.0% of world exports (moderate); episode disrupted ~40% (high) — India >40% of world rice exports (Reuters, Jul 2023 — repo event record india-rice-ban-2023).
Score 2/5 — partial analog (mismatches named above).
Want the full controls? Reopen rice on its commodity page.
5What happened before
For perspective, not prediction
2023: India bans rice exports — the market shrugs
Jul 2023 – Sep 2024
“The world's largest rice exporter banned its biggest export category for 14 months — and CBOT rough-rice (ZR=F) futures ended the ban essentially flat (−1.2%). Grades, exemptions, and competitors absorbed it.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full record2008: rice export bans amplify a thin-market crisis
Oct 2007 – 2008
“Export restrictions amplified a crisis driven by low tradable stocks, strong demand, input costs, importer stock-building, and thin trade — the bans were the accelerant, not the whole fire.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full recordWhat to watch
- Fresh export-restriction headlines (India/Thailand/Vietnam) for rice
- The rice 20d price change against the monitor's −10% invalidation-style line
- Monsoon progress in India through the kharif season — drought has preceded export curbs
- Thai 5% broken rice against the July 2023 $535 → $610/ton benchmark
Adapted from the commodity monitor's thesis invalidation conditions (thesis elnino-rice-wheat-2026: invalidation "rice 20d price change falls below -10%", confirmation keyed to "fresh export restriction headlines (India/Thailand/Vietnam)" for rice) — watch items, not monitor conditions.
Make it yours
Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.
Tell us
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Read by a human · never auto-published