MORROWFLY
Sign in

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a rice spike, or pass on more than the rice alone.

White long-grain rice (US)

  • White long-grain rice (US) costs about $1.11 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • Last time this happened: when rice futures jumped -4.2% (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023), rice moved Jun 2023 ($1.003/lb) → Dec 2023 ($0.990/lb, −1.3%) → Sep 2024 ($1.078/lb, +7.5%) (BLS APU0000701312).
  • Other forces were pushing too: US retail rice is mostly domestic long-grain; Thai and Vietnamese exports filled the gap for importers while global prices rose.
  • The honest lesson: a real export ban by a 40%-share exporter — and US retail rice barely budged. No published US lag study for rice → retail rice was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Rice, white, long grain, uncooked, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000701312)

The verdict

Rice is on watch.

ZRF27.CBT Jan-2027 contango (flattening) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample.

Watch

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
Price up 3.4% this week
This year
Price up 37% over the past year
Where it comes from
India, Thailand and Pakistan grow 57% of the world's rice — concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if India shuts rice exports again? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
← Home

Rice

What world events mean for rice — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
5/10Significant
12-month price change
+37.4%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
30%
India · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a rice spike, or pass on more than the rice alone.

White long-grain rice (US)

  • White long-grain rice (US) costs about $1.11 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • Last time this happened: when rice futures jumped -4.2% (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023), rice moved Jun 2023 ($1.003/lb) → Dec 2023 ($0.990/lb, −1.3%) → Sep 2024 ($1.078/lb, +7.5%) (BLS APU0000701312).
  • Other forces were pushing too: US retail rice is mostly domestic long-grain; Thai and Vietnamese exports filled the gap for importers while global prices rose.
  • The honest lesson: a real export ban by a 40%-share exporter — and US retail rice barely budged. No published US lag study for rice → retail rice was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Rice, white, long grain, uncooked, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000701312)

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Rice is in your everyday life as your takeout.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

India

30% of world rice exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 57.3% of world exports.

India accounts for 30% of the world's exported rice by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Rice
Packaged rice on the shelf

packaged rice · instant rice · ready-to-serve rice

No documented company exposure in our sources for Rice millers and wholesale rice.

A rice supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Indiadominant

    30% of world exports

  • Thailand

    17% of world exports

  • Pakistan

    10.3% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    10.3% of world exports

  • United States

    6.4% of world exports

Next tier: Cambodia (4.8%), Myanmar (3.6%)

Top importers

  • Indonesia

    6.8% of world imports31.7% from Thailand

  • Philippines

    6.3% of world imports72.8% from Vietnam

  • Saudi Arabia

    4.8% of world imports74.9% from India

  • Vietnam

    4.3% of world imports

  • Iraq

    4.2% of world imports56.5% from India

An importer is “critical” here by share of world rice imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Rice — market stress 5/10 (Significant) | Morrowfly