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Rice

What world events mean for rice — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
6/10Significant
12-month price change
+43.5%
Sep ’25 → Sep ’26
Top exporter
30%
India · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a rice spike, or pass on more than the rice alone.

White long-grain rice (US)

  • White long-grain rice (US) costs about $1.11 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • Last time this happened: when rice futures jumped -4.2% (Jun 2023 → Dec 2023), rice moved Jun 2023 ($1.003/lb) → Dec 2023 ($0.990/lb, −1.3%) → Sep 2024 ($1.078/lb, +7.5%) (BLS APU0000701312).
  • Other forces were pushing too: US retail rice is mostly domestic long-grain; Thai and Vietnamese exports filled the gap for importers while global prices rose.
  • The honest lesson: a real export ban by a 40%-share exporter — and US retail rice barely budged. No published US lag study for rice → retail rice was found, so no lag window is stated.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Rice, white, long grain, uncooked, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000701312)

Rice is in your everyday life as your takeout.

World map of Rice exporters

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

India

30% of world rice exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 57.3% of world exports.

India accounts for 30% of the world's exported rice by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Rice
Packaged rice on the shelf

packaged rice · instant rice · ready-to-serve rice

No documented company exposure in our sources for Rice millers and wholesale rice.

A rice supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Indiadominant

    30% of world exports

  • Thailand

    17% of world exports

  • Pakistan

    10.3% of world exports

  • Vietnam

    10.3% of world exports

  • United States

    6.4% of world exports

Next tier: Cambodia (4.8%), Myanmar (3.6%)

Top importers

  • Indonesia

    6.8% of world imports31.7% from Thailand

  • Philippines

    6.3% of world imports72.8% from Vietnam

  • Saudi Arabia

    4.8% of world imports74.9% from India

  • Vietnam

    4.3% of world imports

  • Iraq

    4.2% of world imports56.5% from India

An importer is “critical” here by share of world rice imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Rice — market stress 6/10 (Significant) | Morrowfly