Chokepoint
Suez Canal
Every commodity below names Suez Canal in its sourced corridor data. Shares are 2024 trade structure — exposure, not a forecast. Where a route share is unknown, no sourced figure was found; unknown is not zero.
Palm oil
1 lane through these watersSuez Canal
Serves Indonesia, Malaysia
Route share unknown — No sourced figure for palm oil via Suez. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.
Top exporters worldwide
Indonesia
48.6% of world exports
Malaysia
34.1% of world exports
Netherlands
2% of world exports
Thailand
1.9% of world exports
Papua New Guinea
1.6% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if this El Niño is the strongest since 1950? · Indonesia + Malaysia
87.4% of Pakistan’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
84.8% of United States’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
65.4% of China’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
53.1% of India’s palm oil imports come from Indonesia
29.4% of Netherlands’s palm oil imports come from Malaysia
Rice
1 lane through these watersIndia to Mediterranean/Europe rice lane
Serves India · 15% of rice and wheat exports combined (not rice-only)
Partial figure — adjacent basis, not lane-only — Partial/adjacent figure: the Suez Canal handles at least 15% of global rice AND wheat exports combined (Chatham House research via gCaptain, Mar 2021 Ever Given coverage). No rice-only Suez share found -- do not read as a rice-only figure.
Source: Chatham House via gCaptain, 2021
Top exporters worldwide
India
30% of world exports
Thailand
17% of world exports
Pakistan
10.3% of world exports
Vietnam
10.3% of world exports
United States
6.4% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if India shuts rice exports again? · India
74.9% of Saudi Arabia’s rice imports come from India
56.5% of Iraq’s rice imports come from India
Soybeans
1 lane through these watersSuez Canal
Serves Brazil
Route share unknown — No sourced figure; Brazilian soy to EU/Asia routing is split with no single published corridor share. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.
Top exporters worldwide
Brazil
53.6% of world exports
United States
30.7% of world exports
Paraguay
4% of world exports
Canada
3.1% of world exports
Argentina
2.3% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if Brazil's harvests falter? · Brazil
85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops? · Argentina + Brazil
85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
What if a severe La Niña hits South American crops? · Brazil
85.3% of Thailand’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
71.8% of Spain’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
67.7% of China’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
36.1% of Mexico’s soybeans imports come from Brazil
Sugar
1 lane through these watersSuez Canal
Serves Brazil
Route share unknown — No sourced figure for Brazilian sugar via Suez. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.
Top exporters worldwide
Brazil
47.4% of world exports
Thailand
6.3% of world exports
India
5% of world exports
France
4% of world exports
Australia
4% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if Brazil's harvests falter? · Brazil
98.9% of India’s sugar imports come from Brazil
89.9% of United Arab Emirates’s sugar imports come from Brazil
81.9% of China’s sugar imports come from Brazil
61.1% of Indonesia’s sugar imports come from Brazil
28.4% of United States’s sugar imports come from Brazil
Wheat
1 lane through these watersSuez Canal (Black Sea/EU wheat to Asia lane)
Serves Russia, Ukraine · 97% of EU/Russia/Ukraine wheat shipments to selected Asian countries and Eastern Africa transiting the Suez Canal, pre-crisis baseline
Source: WTO Wheat Dashboard (via agbi.com / freightnews.co.za, 2024-01), 2023 (pre-Red Sea crisis baseline)
Top exporters worldwide
Russia
15.8% of world exports
Canada
13.6% of world exports
United States
11.7% of world exports
Australia
9.9% of world exports
Ukraine
8.3% of world exports
Scenarios that shock this lane
What if Black Sea grain stops? · Russia
58.8% of Egypt’s wheat imports come from Russia
What if Black Sea grain stops? · Russia + Ukraine
58.8% of Egypt’s wheat imports come from Russia
What if Black Sea grain stops? · Ukraine
No importer sources ≥20% of its wheat imports from the shocked exporters in the 2024 trade structure.
What if Suez closes to wheat? · Russia + Ukraine
58.8% of Egypt’s wheat imports come from Russia
Illustrative scenario lens — not a prediction, not financial advice.