Sugar
ELEVATEDStress 7/10
- price +7.0% in 5d
- Ribeirao Preto: extremely wet rainfall — 316% of the 30-day normal
- Ribeirao Preto: week-ahead forecast shows severe deficit rainfall
Guided scenario
What if India extends its sugar export curbs?
India is a top-five sugar exporter. Explore what extended curbs would expose.
1The setup
India is 5.0% of world sugar exports by value (2024 vintage) — a top-five exporter, small next to Brazil's 47.4%. Even so, NY sugar touched a 12-year high around its October 2023 curb extension. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed the market is, and lets you model extended curbs yourself.
2Right now
Monitor data as of Sep 24, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.
3The exposure
- Brazil47.4%
- Thailand6.3%
- India5.0%
- France4.0%
- Australia4.0%
How the shock travels
Follow the shock downstream — from the sugar market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.
Day 0: sugar futures spike
timing not establishedLag basis: Day 0 is the shock itself; no lag applies.
raw sugarFood and beverage manufacturers buy sweeteners (HFCS, sucrose)
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
high fructose corn syruprefined sucroseCoca-Cola
KO'The principal nutritive sweetener' used in the US is HFCS and outside the US is sucrose, both 'subject to fluctuations in its market price' (FY2024 10-K).
Source: Coca-Cola FY2024 10-K
PepsiCo
PEPSugar and corn sweeteners are listed among the principal ingredients in its beverage and food products, and the prices it pays for such items 'are subject to fluctuation' (2024 10-K).
Source: PepsiCo 2024 10-K (IR)
Mondelez
MDLZLists 'sugar and other sweeteners' among the large quantities of commodities it purchases for its snacks and confectionery (2024 10-K).
Source: Mondelez 10-K (2020 filing)
Retail: soft drinks, candy and packaged foods
timing not establishedLag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
soft drinkscandypackaged snacks
Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.
Trade map
Who ships it, who can’t do without it
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagSourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.
Sugar · India
Top exporters
Brazildominant
47.4% of world exports
Thailand
6.3% of world exports
India
5% of world exports
France
4% of world exports
Australia
4% of world exports
Note: raw 170111/170112 + refined 170199 aggregate; Brazil exports raw, Thailand refined
Exposed importers
Shocked exporters: India
No importer sources ≥20% of its sugar imports from the shocked exporters in the 2024 trade structure.
How we map this
Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its sugar imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.
In a famous portfolio
Berkshire Hathaway
Q2 202629 holdings
13F-HR · published 2026-08-14
1 of 29
disclosed holding sits in sugar’s curated shock path.
Mapped to our current coverage — not total portfolio risk.
COCA COLA CO
#3 holdingKO'The principal nutritive sweetener' used in the US is HFCS and outside the US is sucrose, both 'subject to fluctuations in its market price' (FY2024 10-K).
Source: Coca-Cola FY2024 10-K
How we map this
Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway Q2 2026 13F-HR, published 2026-08-14 — SEC EDGAR 13F-HR. Disclosed US equity long positions only. 13F filings are due 45 days after quarter-end, so holdings are always at least 45 days stale. Tickers are mapped from the filing’s issuer names against the SEC’s published company-tickers list, with share class/series disambiguated from the filing (e.g. Alphabet Class A/C, Lennar Class B, Liberty Live series A/C). All 29 disclosed positions mapped — 100% of the $299.3B disclosed value. We map only to companies with curated, sourced exposures — a holding absent here is not a claim of no exposure.
4Adjust the assumptions
70%
Historical check: No sugar episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.
What share of India’s sugar exports is disrupted.
Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted
Share of world exports
0%50%100% of world exports
India sugar — 5.0% of world Sugar exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)
Exposed under your assumptions: 3.5% (5.0% × 70% severity)
The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.
Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.
90d
Historical check: No sugar episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.
Resolution: Days the disruption lasts
60d
Your assumption — not a measured buffer.
Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer
Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 90 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption
30 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage
What this would have meant
At these settings, about 3.5% of the world's sugar exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
What this assumes
- Exposure: Target share 5.0% × severity 70% = 3.5% exposed.
- Uncovered days: max(0, 90 − 60) = 30.
- Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
- Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
- Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
- Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Analog check
No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.
Want the full controls? Reopen sugar on its commodity page.
5What happened before
For perspective, not prediction
2023: India bans rice exports — the market shrugs
Jul 2023 – Sep 2024
“The world's largest rice exporter banned its biggest export category for 14 months — and CBOT rough-rice (ZR=F) futures ended the ban essentially flat (−1.2%). Grades, exemptions, and competitors absorbed it.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full record2022: Indonesia bans palm oil exports for three weeks — then begs buyers back
Apr – May 2022
“A three-week export ban coincided with a 40.5% palm-oil move — but the Mar→Jul window spans the broader vegetable-oil correction, so timing alone does not prove the ban caused the collapse. What the ban verifiably did: trap stocks at home, anger farmers, and force Indonesia to discount to win back the buyers Malaysia had taken.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Read the full recordWhat to watch
- Indian government statements on sugar export policy
- India's sugar production and export estimates against the 11.1 → 6.2 Mt 2023 figure
- NY sugar #11 relative to the October 2023 27.53¢/lb high
- The sugar 20d price change against the monitor's −10% invalidation-style line
Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions. The 20-day line mirrors the monitor's sugar-brazil-weather-2026 invalidation, which watches Brazil, not India.
Make it yours
Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.
Tell us
Spotted something wrong, confusing, or missing? It goes straight into our improvement queue.
Something off? Tell us.
Read by a human · never auto-published