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The verdict

What if India extends its sugar export curbs?

For this scenario, about 3.5% of the world's sugar exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Exposed ≠ lost. Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Model the shock

70%

Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

90d

Days the disruption lasts

60d

Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What to watch

  • Indian government statements on sugar export policy
  • India's sugar production and export estimates against the 11.1 → 6.2 Mt 2023 figure
  • NY sugar #11 relative to the October 2023 27.53¢/lb high

Evidence: Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions. The 20-day line mirrors the monitor's sugar-brazil-weather-2026 invalidation, which watches Brazil, not India.

Make your call

Not a bet, not financial advice. Write your one-line read — we check back on January 13, 2027 and grade it in public.

How we model thisThe full evidence, assumptions, and arithmetic — analyst layer.
Guided scenario

What if India extends its sugar export curbs?

India is a top-five sugar exporter. Explore what extended curbs would expose.

1The setup

India is 5.0% of world sugar exports by value (2024 vintage) — a top-five exporter, small next to Brazil's 47.4%. Even so, NY sugar touched a 12-year high around its October 2023 curb extension. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed the market is, and lets you model extended curbs yourself.

2Adjust the assumptions

70%

Historical check: No sugar episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.

What share of India’s sugar exports is disrupted.

Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

90d

Historical check: No sugar episode on record — no historical range to compare this setting against.

Resolution: Days the disruption lasts

60d

Your assumption — not a measured buffer.

Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What this assumes
  • Exposure: Target share 5.0% × severity 70% = 3.5% exposed.
  • Uncovered days: max(0, 90 − 60) = 30.
  • Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
  • Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
  • Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
  • Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Share of world exports

India sugar — 5.0% of world Sugar exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)

Exposed under your assumptions: 3.5% (5.0% × 70% severity)

The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.

Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.

Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 90 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption

30 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage

What this would have meant

For this scenario, about 3.5% of the world's sugar exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Analog check

No close historical match in our records — this scenario is outside our recorded experience.

Want the full controls? Reopen sugar on its commodity page.

3Right now

Sugar

WATCH

Stress 5/10

  • SBH27.NYB Mar-2027 backwardation, steepening — prompt premium widening, implied convenience yield rising
  • Kolhapur: severe deficit rainfall — 24% of the 30-day normal
  • Lucknow: wet rainfall — 170% of the 30-day normal

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.

4The exposure

  • Brazil
    47.4%
  • Thailand
    6.3%
  • India
    5.0%
  • France
    4.0%
  • Australia
    4.0%
Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage. Amber = the scenario focus. Ranked by share.

How the shock travels

Follow the shock downstream — from the sugar market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.

  1. Day 0: sugar futures spike

    timing not established

    Lag basis: Day 0 is the shock itself; no lag applies.

    raw sugar

  2. Food and beverage manufacturers buy sweeteners (HFCS, sucrose)

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    high fructose corn syruprefined sucrose

    Coca-Cola

    KO

    'The principal nutritive sweetener' used in the US is HFCS and outside the US is sucrose, both 'subject to fluctuations in its market price' (FY2024 10-K).

    Source: Coca-Cola FY2024 10-K

    PepsiCo

    PEP

    Sugar and corn sweeteners are listed among the principal ingredients in its beverage and food products, and the prices it pays for such items 'are subject to fluctuation' (2024 10-K).

    Source: PepsiCo 2024 10-K (IR)

    Mondelez

    MDLZ

    Lists 'sugar and other sweeteners' among the large quantities of commodities it purchases for its snacks and confectionery (2024 10-K).

    Source: Mondelez 10-K (2020 filing)

  3. Retail: soft drinks, candy and packaged foods

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    soft drinkscandypackaged snacks

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.

Trade map

Who ships it, who can’t do without it

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Sourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.

Sugar · India

Top exporters

  • Brazildominant

    47.4% of world exports

  • Thailand

    6.3% of world exports

  • India

    5% of world exports

  • France

    4% of world exports

  • Australia

    4% of world exports

Note: raw 170111/170112 + refined 170199 aggregate; Brazil exports raw, Thailand refined

Exposed importers

Shocked exporters: India

No importer sources ≥20% of its sugar imports from the shocked exporters in the 2024 trade structure.

How we map this

Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its sugar imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.

In a famous portfolio

Berkshire Hathaway

Q2 202629 holdings

13F-HR · published 2026-08-14

1 of 29

disclosed holding sits in sugar’s curated shock path.

Mapped to our current coverage — not total portfolio risk.

  • COCA COLA CO

    #3 holdingKO

    'The principal nutritive sweetener' used in the US is HFCS and outside the US is sucrose, both 'subject to fluctuations in its market price' (FY2024 10-K).

    Source: Coca-Cola FY2024 10-K

How we map this

Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway Q2 2026 13F-HR, published 2026-08-14 — SEC EDGAR 13F-HR. Disclosed US equity long positions only. 13F filings are due 45 days after quarter-end, so holdings are always at least 45 days stale. Tickers are mapped from the filing’s issuer names against the SEC’s published company-tickers list, with share class/series disambiguated from the filing (e.g. Alphabet Class A/C, Lennar Class B, Liberty Live series A/C). All 29 disclosed positions mapped — 100% of the $299.3B disclosed value. We map only to companies with curated, sourced exposures — a holding absent here is not a claim of no exposure.

5What happened before

For perspective, not prediction

India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Jul 2023 – Sep 2024

“FAO’s All Rice Price Index rose 9.8% from Jul to Aug 2023. US rough-rice futures ended Jul 2023 to Sep 2024 down 1.2%, but that different benchmark and longer window cannot describe Asian rice markets’ reaction or measure the ban’s effect.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Apr – May 2022

“World Bank palm-oil monthly prices rose 2.0% from Apr to May 2022 and fell 40.5% from Mar to Jul. These windows overlap a short export ban and a wider vegetable-oil correction; they do not measure the ban’s independent price effect.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

What to watch

  • Indian government statements on sugar export policy
  • India's sugar production and export estimates against the 11.1 → 6.2 Mt 2023 figure
  • NY sugar #11 relative to the October 2023 27.53¢/lb high
  • The sugar 20d price change against the monitor's −10% invalidation-style line

Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions. The 20-day line mirrors the monitor's sugar-brazil-weather-2026 invalidation, which watches Brazil, not India.

Make it yours

Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.

Tell us

Spotted something wrong, confusing, or missing? It goes straight into our improvement queue.

Something off? Tell us.

Read by a human · never auto-published

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026 · Trade vintage 2024 · Scoring v3.4

Where this happened before

Related scenarios

What if India extends its sugar export curbs? | Morrowfly