Sugar
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS publishes a sugar-and-sweets CPI, but it blends sugar with candy and other sweets, so it can't stand in for the retail price of sugar.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
The verdict
SBH27.NYB Mar-2027 backwardation, steepening — prompt premium widening, implied convenience yield rising.
WatchIllustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.
The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.
What if Brazil's harvests falter? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.
Play the what-if →Sugar
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS publishes a sugar-and-sweets CPI, but it blends sugar with candy and other sweets, so it can't stand in for the retail price of sugar.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet
Sugar is in your everyday life as your sweet tooth.
Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume
47.4% of world sugar exports · 2024 trade value
Top 3 exporters: 58.7% of world exports.
Brazil accounts for 47.4% of the world's exported sugar by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.
What-if presets
high fructose corn syrup · refined sucrose
No documented company exposure in our sources for Retail: soft drinks, candy and packaged foods.
A sugar supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.
Critical exporters & importers
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagTop exporters
Brazildominant
47.4% of world exports
Thailand
6.3% of world exports
India
5% of world exports
France
4% of world exports
Australia
4% of world exports
Next tier: Germany (3%), Guatemala (1.9%)
Top importers
7% of world imports61.1% from Brazil
5.7% of world imports28.4% from Brazil
4.4% of world imports81.9% from Brazil
4.1% of world imports98.9% from Brazil
3.1% of world imports89.9% from Brazil
An importer is “critical” here by share of world sugar imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.
Moves through: Strait of Malacca · Suez Canal · Cape of Good Hope
Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.
Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.