Russia and Ukraine together are a quarter of world wheat exports. Explore the exposure.
1The setup
Russia (15.8%) and Ukraine (8.3%) together account for 24.1% of world wheat exports by value (2024 vintage) — and Ukraine alone is 13.1% of world corn exports. Both countries move their grain through the Black Sea. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed each market is, and lets you model a stoppage yourself.
Market check · Polymarket
What the market thinks
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Polymarket · live contract
21%
implied chance of “Yes” on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026…
The market says 21% — you say the real chance is…
Your take lives on this device only. Illustrative — not a bet, not advice.
Closest live contract — the conflict this scenario is about, not grain exports. The scenario asks what happens if the conflict continues; the market prices the ceasefire outcome.
Illustrative only — not financial advice, not a recommendation.
2Right now
🌾Wheat
WATCH
Stress 5/10
›Odesa: week-ahead forecast shows severe deficit rainfall
›Ludhiana: severe deficit rainfall — 29% of the 30-day normal
›Ludhiana: week-ahead forecast shows severe deficit rainfall
🌽Corn
WATCH
Stress 5/10
›Sorriso: week-ahead forecast shows severe deficit rainfall
›Pergamino: severe deficit rainfall — 39% of the 30-day normal
›Zhengzhou: severe deficit rainfall — 20% of the 30-day normal
Monitor data as of Sep 24, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.
3The exposure
Disruption hits:
Russia
15.8%
Canada
13.6%
United States
11.7%
Australia
9.9%
Ukraine
8.3%
Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage. Amber = the scenario focus. Ranked by share.
How the shock travels
Follow the shock downstream — from the wheat market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.
Day 0: wheat futures spike
timing not established
Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed
wheat futures
Flour millers and wholesale wheat flour
typically within ~1 month →
Lag basis: USDA ERS Amber Waves (June 2011): most of a farm wheat price change was passed on to wholesale wheat flour prices within the first month
wheat flourbulk flour
Bread, pasta and cereal on the shelf
typically 1–6 months →
Lag basis: USDA ERS (Leibtag, 2009, cited in USDA presentation): retail bread pass-through time 1 to 6 months; Amber Waves (June 2011): wholesale flour to retail bread mostly after 2–4 months when wholesale prices fell or rose modestly, within the first month during surges
breadpastacerealbaking mixes
General Mills
GIS
Grains including wheat and corn are listed as principal ingredients, and wheat is used across its cereals, baking mixes and flour products
via Suez Canal · 97% of EU/Russia/Ukraine wheat shipments to selected Asian countries and Eastern Africa transiting the Suez Canal, pre-crisis baseline
Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its wheat imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.
4Adjust the assumptions
80%
Historical check: The closest episode, Black Sea, 2022, saw wheat futures move +62.7% (extreme band); your 80% disruption setting sits in the extreme band.
What share of Russia + Ukraine’s wheat exports is disrupted.
Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted
Share of world exports
0%50%100% of world exports
Russia + Ukraine wheat — 24.1% of world Wheat exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)
Exposed under your assumptions: 19.3% (24.1% × 80% severity)
The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.
Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.
90d
Historical check: The closest episode, Black Sea, 2022, lasted 148 days (medium); your 90-day duration sits in the medium band.
Resolution: Days the disruption lasts
60d
Your assumption — not a measured buffer.
Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer
Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 90 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption
30 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage
What this would have meant
At these settings, about 19.3% of the world's wheat exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 90 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 30 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.
The closest recorded episode, Black Sea, 2022, saw wheat futures rise +62.7% in 12 days (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022), and for consumers: retail bread (US) rose +7.2% to +11.3% over 4–6 months. Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.
Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
Combined share is the sum of the focus exporters' individual shares — a scenario hitting all of them at once.
Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Analog check
Your settings look closest to Black Sea, 2022(same commodity, same shock type, similar size, similar duration, similar supply concentration). The episode's measured moves, caveats included: wheat futures +62.7% in 12 days (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022); Retail bread (US): +7.2% to +11.3% over 4–6 months. 2022's bread move also reflects soaring natural-gas and diesel costs (fertilizer and freight) and broad post-pandemic food inflation — not all of it traces to the wheat shock..
Only about 11.8¢ of every US consumer food dollar — and 18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar — reaches the farm (USDA, 2024) — that's a ceiling, not a prediction: margins can absorb a spike or amplify it.
Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now. Your scenario differs: your scenario is a hypothetical — the episode is history, and its prices moved with the whole economy (energy, freight, demand), not just this shock.
Commodity:requirement — Both are wheat — non-wheat episodes are excluded outright.
Shock type:2/2 — Both are a conflict shock.
Size:1/1 — Your 80% disruption setting band: extreme; episode futures moved +62.7% (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022) — band: extreme. Severity is % of shipments disrupted, not a price move: this banding is a v1 matching heuristic.
Duration:1/1 — Your disruption: 90-day (medium); episode: 148-day (medium) — Ukrainian commercial shipping suspended 24 Feb 2022; Black Sea Grain Initiative signed 22 Jul 2022 (repo event records russia-ukraine-war, bsgi-exit-2023).
Supply concentration:1/1 — Your hazard zone: 24.1% of world exports (moderate); episode disrupted ~30% (moderate) — Russia and Ukraine together were about three-tenths of world wheat exports (Reuters, Mar 2022 — repo event record russia-ukraine-war).
Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock
Feb 2022 –
“A real Black Sea supply shock — Ukrainian exports stopped, fertilizer spiked — and the price spike faded over months as other exporters filled the gap, demand rationed, and Russia's own record crop arrived. This episode only: one case, not a rule about shocks.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
Russia exits the Black Sea Grain Initiative — and wheat falls
Jul 2023
“The headline exit rallied wheat briefly, then ample supply and alternative routes dominated: wheat -14.9% two months later. The exit was telegraphed for months — inspections had already slowed and some buyers had pre-positioned (Rabobank) — and Russia harvested a record crop instead of weaponizing supply. Observed in this episode; not a rule about exits.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.
2010: Russia bans grain exports — and competitors eat its lunch
Aug 2010 – Jun 2011
“Russia's ten-month grain ban moved wheat prices only until competitors filled the gap — in this episode. Wheat ended the ban cheaper than the pre-announcement Jul 2010 month-end reading.”
Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.