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Chokepoint

Turkish Straits

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag5 commodities tracked through these waters · 1 scenario shocks this lane

Every commodity below names Turkish Straits in its sourced corridor data. Shares are 2024 trade structure — exposure, not a forecast. Where a route share is unknown, no sourced figure was found; unknown is not zero.

Corn

1 lane through these waters

Black Sea export corridor (Ukrainian corn)

Serves Ukraine · 17% of global maize exports

Source: Chatham House, 2015 (published 2017)

Top exporters worldwide

  • United States

    30.3% of world exports

  • Brazil

    18.7% of world exports

  • Argentina

    16.4% of world exports

  • Ukraine

    13.1% of world exports

  • France

    2.3% of world exports

Scenarios that shock this lane

What if Black Sea grain stops? · Ukraine

  • 52.1% of China’s corn imports come from Ukraine

Phosphates

1 lane through these waters

Black Sea fertilizer export ports (Novorossiysk / Taman)

Serves Russia

Route share unknown — No phosphate-specific Black Sea share found. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Morocco

    21% of world exports

  • China

    14.87% of world exports

  • Russia

    14.27% of world exports

  • Saudi Arabia

    8.89% of world exports

  • United States

    6.99% of world exports

Potash

1 lane through these waters

Black Sea fertilizer export ports (Novorossiysk / Taman)

Serves Russia

Route share unknown — No potash-specific Black Sea share found. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Canada

    33.17% of world exports

  • Russia

    23.68% of world exports

  • Germany

    7.34% of world exports

  • Belarus

    5.34% of world exports

  • Israel

    4.96% of world exports

Urea

1 lane through these waters

Black Sea fertilizer export ports (Novorossiysk / Taman)

Serves Russia

Route share unknown — No urea-specific Black Sea port share. Adjacent context only: Drewry (2023) -- >80% of Russian fertilizer exports via Baltic Sea ports, implying Black Sea is the minority for fertilizers generally. Corridor-share research (Sep 2026): no commodity-specific corridor figure found in public sources -- not zero, just unsourced.

Top exporters worldwide

  • Russia

    14.11% of world exports

  • China

    9.58% of world exports

  • Oman

    7.89% of world exports

  • Qatar

    5.25% of world exports

  • Egypt

    4.92% of world exports

Wheat

1 lane through these waters

Black Sea export corridor

Serves Russia, Ukraine · 20% of global wheat exports

Source: Chatham House, 2015 (published 2017)

Top exporters worldwide

  • Russia

    15.8% of world exports

  • Canada

    13.6% of world exports

  • United States

    11.7% of world exports

  • Australia

    9.9% of world exports

  • Ukraine

    8.3% of world exports

Scenarios that shock this lane

What if Black Sea grain stops? · Russia

  • 58.8% of Egypt’s wheat imports come from Russia

What if Black Sea grain stops? · Russia + Ukraine

  • 58.8% of Egypt’s wheat imports come from Russia

What if Black Sea grain stops? · Ukraine

No importer sources ≥20% of its wheat imports from the shocked exporters in the 2024 trade structure.

Illustrative scenario lens — not a prediction, not financial advice.