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In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a wheat spike, or pass on more than the wheat alone.

Bread

  • Bread costs about $1.82 a pound in the US (July 2026, BLS).
  • When wheat prices jump, bread usually follows 1–6 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when wheat futures jumped +62.7% (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022), bread moved Feb 2022 ($1.578/lb) → Jun 2022 ($1.691/lb, +7.2%) → Aug 2022 ($1.756/lb, +11.3%).
  • Other forces were pushing too: 2022's bread move also reflects soaring natural-gas and diesel costs (fertilizer and freight) and broad post-pandemic food inflation — not all of it traces to the wheat shock.
  • BLS notes average prices are best used to measure the price level in a particular month; index values are more appropriate for measuring change. Bread kept climbing to $1.873/lb by Dec 2022 (+18.7% from Feb), increasingly driven by other costs.

BLS Average Price Data, series 702111 — 'Bread, white, pan, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000702111) Lag basis: USDA ERS (Leibtag, 2009): retail bread pass-through time 1 to 6 months; Amber Waves (Jun 2011): wholesale flour to retail bread mostly after 2–4 months, within the first month during surges.

The verdict

Wheat is calm.

ZWZ26.CBT Dec-2026 contango (stable) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample.

Calm

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

The board

This week
No sharp move this week
This year
Price up 37% over the past year
Where it comes from
Russia, Canada and United States grow 41% of the world's wheat — fairly concentrated.

The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.

What if the supply got cut?

What if Black Sea grain stops? — move the sliders and get the answer in plain English.

Play the what-if →
How we knowStress scores, exporters, routes, spike history, and the disruption model — analyst layer.
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Wheat

What world events mean for wheat — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
2/10Muted
12-month price change
+37.3%
Oct ’25 → Oct ’26
Change in monthly average vs 12 months earlier
Top exporter
15.8%
Russia · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a wheat spike, or pass on more than the wheat alone.

Bread

  • Bread costs about $1.82 a pound in the US (July 2026, BLS).
  • When wheat prices jump, bread usually follows 1–6 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when wheat futures jumped +62.7% (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022), bread moved Feb 2022 ($1.578/lb) → Jun 2022 ($1.691/lb, +7.2%) → Aug 2022 ($1.756/lb, +11.3%).
  • Other forces were pushing too: 2022's bread move also reflects soaring natural-gas and diesel costs (fertilizer and freight) and broad post-pandemic food inflation — not all of it traces to the wheat shock.
  • BLS notes average prices are best used to measure the price level in a particular month; index values are more appropriate for measuring change. Bread kept climbing to $1.873/lb by Dec 2022 (+18.7% from Feb), increasingly driven by other costs.

BLS Average Price Data, series 702111 — 'Bread, white, pan, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000702111) Lag basis: USDA ERS (Leibtag, 2009): retail bread pass-through time 1 to 6 months; Amber Waves (Jun 2011): wholesale flour to retail bread mostly after 2–4 months, within the first month during surges.

Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet

Wheat is in your everyday life as your bread.

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Russia

15.8% of world wheat exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 41.1% of world exports.

Russia accounts for 15.8% of the world's exported wheat by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

Trade routes serving Russia

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Wheat
Bread, pasta and cereal on the shelf

bread · pasta · cereal · baking mixes

No documented company exposure in our sources for Flour millers and wholesale wheat flour.

A wheat supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Russia

    15.8% of world exports

  • Canada

    13.6% of world exports

  • United States

    11.7% of world exports

  • Australia

    9.9% of world exports

  • Ukraine

    8.3% of world exports

Next tier: France (7.3%), Romania (4.3%)

Top importers

  • Egypt

    9% of world imports58.8% from Russia

  • Indonesia

    5.5% of world imports26.8% from Australia

  • China

    5% of world imports33.1% from Australia

  • Italy

    4.4% of world imports

  • Nigeria

    3.7% of world imports

An importer is “critical” here by share of world wheat imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Moves through: Suez Canal · Turkish Straits

Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.

Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Wheat — market stress 2/10 (Muted) | Morrowfly