Bread
- Bread costs about $1.82 a pound in the US (July 2026, BLS).
- When wheat prices jump, bread usually follows 1–6 months later.
- Last time this happened: when wheat futures jumped +62.7% (23 Feb 2022 → 7 Mar 2022), bread moved Feb 2022 ($1.578/lb) → Jun 2022 ($1.691/lb, +7.2%) → Aug 2022 ($1.756/lb, +11.3%).
- Other forces were pushing too: 2022's bread move also reflects soaring natural-gas and diesel costs (fertilizer and freight) and broad post-pandemic food inflation — not all of it traces to the wheat shock.
- BLS notes average prices are best used to measure the price level in a particular month; index values are more appropriate for measuring change. Bread kept climbing to $1.873/lb by Dec 2022 (+18.7% from Feb), increasingly driven by other costs.
BLS Average Price Data, series 702111 — 'Bread, white, pan, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000702111) Lag basis: USDA ERS (Leibtag, 2009): retail bread pass-through time 1 to 6 months; Amber Waves (Jun 2011): wholesale flour to retail bread mostly after 2–4 months, within the first month during surges.