Russia’s 2010 grain ban: Chicago wheat across the ban window

A severe drought and wildfires destroyed about a fifth of Russia's wheat crop. On 5 Aug 2010 Prime Minister Putin announced a ban on all grain exports — wheat, flour, barley, rye, corn — in force 15 Aug to 31 Dec 2010, later extended to 30 Jun 2011, and lifted 1 Jul 2011 once the domestic market stabilized.

AP (5 Aug 2010): Russia banned grain exports 'after a severe drought and wildfires destroyed 20 percent of its wheat crop. The price of wheat, which has already jumped 70 percent on world markets this summer, rallied further on the news.' Marketplace/BBC (16 Aug 2010): fears of 'another food crisis.' The contemporary counter-voice: IGD's James Walton — 'Food markets are actually much better prepared for this problem. We have much more in stock... I don't think there's any need to panic just yet.'

As reported at the time: AP, 5 Aug 2010 · Marketplace/BBC, 16 Aug 2010

These are changes in the named benchmarks over the stated windows, not estimates of the event’s effect. Endpoints omit interim moves. A supply shock may have kept prices above where they would otherwise have been, even if the measured change is negative.

• Wheat

  Jul 2010 → Dec 2010 · CBOT Chicago Soft Red Winter wheat futures (ZW=F) month-end closes

  Benchmark: Chicago SRW; not a matched Black Sea milling-wheat, KC HRW, or spring-wheat price. Protein, end use, and crop calendar affect comparability. Generic futures series; delivery months, roll dates, and roll adjustment are not documented in the bundled data.

  +20.1%

  Chicago SRW wheat increased between July and December month-end. Drought news and the export ban overlap this window.

• Wheat

  Jul 2010 → Jun 2011 · CBOT Chicago Soft Red Winter wheat futures (ZW=F) month-end closes

  Benchmark: Chicago SRW; not a matched Black Sea milling-wheat, KC HRW, or spring-wheat price. Protein, end use, and crop calendar affect comparability. Generic futures series; delivery months, roll dates, and roll adjustment are not documented in the bundled data.

  -11.6%

  Chicago SRW wheat ended June 2011 below July 2010. The base precedes the 5 August announcement but not the drought; this is not a causal estimate or a return from holding a specified contract.

The July 2010 month-end baseline precedes the August ban announcement but may already reflect drought news and expectations. Crop calendars, wheat quality, destination freight, and the futures delivery month affect the comparison. This record does not estimate those effects or the price path without the ban.

The cited reporting describes a reduction in Russian export availability and increased opportunities for competing exporters. Replacement shipments are a plausible easing channel, but the record does not match volumes, grades, shipment dates, and destinations to establish how much of Russia’s shortfall was replaced. Falling Chicago SRW prices over the longer window do not establish that the ban stopped supporting prices.