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Live cattle

What world events mean for live cattle — the exporters, the routes, and the retail endpoint.

Market stress
4/10Limited
12-month price change
-5.2%
Sep ’25 → Sep ’26
Top exporter
14.8%
Canada · of world exports

In your life

Farm share of your food dollar
11.8¢of every US consumer food dollar reaches the farm (USDA, 2024)

18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar. That's a ceiling, not a prediction: makers and stores can absorb a live cattle spike, or pass on more than the live cattle alone.

Ground beef (US)

  • Ground beef (US) costs about $6.92 a pound in the US (August 2026, BLS).
  • When live cattle prices jump, ground beef usually follows 1–2 months later.
  • Last time this happened: when live cattle futures jumped +44.7% (28 Jun 2013 → 17 Nov 2014), ground beef moved Jun 2013 ($3.382/lb) → Dec 2014 ($4.156/lb, +22.9%) → Jun 2015 ($4.221/lb, +24.8%) (BLS APU0000703112).
  • Other forces were pushing too: The 2014 PEDv virus outbreak lifted pork prices, pulling protein demand toward beef; herd-rebuilding retention also tightened slaughter supply.

BLS Average Price Data — 'Ground beef, 100% beef, per lb.' in U.S. city average (FRED APU0000703112) Lag basis: Leibtag (2009), USDA ERS: retail beef prices respond to commodity/input cost changes in 1–2 months.

World map of Live cattle exporters

Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume

Top exporters
Ranked by share of world exports (2024 trade value).

Canada

14.8% of world live cattle exports · 2024 trade value

Top 3 exporters: 40% of world exports.

Canada accounts for 14.8% of the world's exported live cattle by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.

What-if presets

See who depends on it ↓

Documented supply-chain relationships — independent of your scenario assumptions.

Live cattle

No documented company exposure in our sources for Beef packing and wholesale beef; Grocery meat case and restaurant menu.

A live cattle supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.

Trade structure

Critical exporters & importers

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Top exporters

  • Canada

    14.8% of world exports

  • France

    14.2% of world exports

  • Mexico

    11% of world exports

  • Australia

    7.1% of world exports

  • Brazil

    6.8% of world exports

Next tier: United States (4.6%), Germany (3%), Czechia (2.8%), Hungary (2.6%), Uruguay (2.6%), Netherlands (2.6%), Spain (2.5%), Ireland (2.4%)

Top importers

  • United States

    25.7% of world imports57.5% from Canada

  • Italy

    13.6% of world imports77.4% from France

  • Turkey

    7.6% of world imports

  • Iraq

    4.5% of world imports57.6% from Brazil

  • Indonesia

    4.4% of world imports100% from Australia

An importer is “critical” here by share of world live cattle imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.

Market stress data as of Sep 24, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.

Live cattle — market stress 4/10 (Limited) | Morrowfly