Every revision, newest first

Malaysian palm oil coverage turned supply-tight on October 22: Nikkei Asia reported Southeast Asia drought behind an outlook for palm oil p… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Reported escalation around Gulf energy infrastructure on Oct 22, 2026, recorded as reported headlines, not as facts independently verified… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Correction to the October 20, 2026 revision on this record. — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Malaysian palm oil stocks reached a record 3.5 million tonnes, reported by NST Online on October 21, and Malaysia is considering waiving cr… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 317.15 US cents per pound as of October 20, up 16.47 percent over 20 trading days and 8.35 percent over 5 days,… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

FCPO (MPOC) stood at RM4,769 per tonne as of October 16, up 3.85 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

The blockade held for crude into October but leaked in products. — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 313.7 US cents per pound on October 19, up 7.95 percent over five trading days and 13.49 percent over twenty tr… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Chicago SRW wheat (ZW=F) stood at 660.0 US cents per bushel as of October 16, down 7.6 percent over 20 trading days, while the Morrowfly mo… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

FCPO palm oil stood at 4,619 ringgit per tonne as of October 15, down 0.9 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 2… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

FCPO palm oil stood at 4,700 ringgit per tonne as of October 14, up 3.89 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 20… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

US rough rice futures (ZR=F) stood at 17.75 US dollars per cwt on October 15, up 12.41 percent over 20 trading days, while the Morrowfly mo… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

ICE arabica (KC=F) stood at 294.8 US cents per pound on October 15, up 1.46 percent over 20 trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dash… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

FCPO palm oil stood at 4,682 ringgit per tonne as of October 13, up 2.68 percent over five trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 20… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

ICE cocoa (CC=F) stood at 5,833 US dollars per tonne on October 14, up 4.5 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (das… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

Malaysian palm oil reached a two-week high on October 13 amid record inventory and export growth, according to KuCoin reporting, while Brie… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

ICE cocoa (CC=F) stood at 5,845 US dollars per tonne on October 13, up 2.54 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (da… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

The war on commercial shipping escalated into NATO waters this week. — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

Price action since Oct 5 shows the war premium rising then fading on US supply news. — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

The October WASDE (released Oct 9) left Ukraine's 2026/27 wheat export forecast unchanged at 12.5 mln tons but cut Russia's by 3 mln tons t… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

Russia is rerouting its grain exports to the Baltic at speed while the policy response hardens. — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

Turkey and the UN have set up fresh talks with Russia and Ukraine on a Black Sea ceasefire aimed at protecting grain shipments, an attempt… — Russia exits the grain deal: Chicago wheat rises, then falls

Philippine President Marcos ordered early rice imports and livelihood assistance for farmers as the government braces for a prolonged dry s… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

MPOB's September 2026 data, released Oct 12, confirmed the inventory overhang flagged in the Oct 5 revision and then some: total stocks hit… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

GAPKI figures reported on October 12 by UkrAgroConsult and VOI put Indonesian palm oil exports in 2027 at 26.5 million tons, nearly 15 perc… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

The October WASDE (released Oct 9, 2026) did not cut India's rice production further: the material production cut remains the September vin… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Rice price benchmarks broke above early-October levels: CBOT Nov-26 rough rice reached 16.80 USD/cwt on Oct 9 (vs 16.38 on Oct 2), and rice… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

El Nino risk materialized on the buyer side: PAGASA warned of a 'very strong' El Nino through early 2027, and on Oct 5 Science and Technolo… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Cited trade coverage through Oct 11 reported no new Indian rice export restrictions: export channels remain operational, with administrativ… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Hormuz traffic fell back sharply in the week of Oct 6, hitting the lowest daily transit count in over two months as tanker attacks reached… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Iran escalated the maritime campaign and the US escalated its interdictions. — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Trump said Oct 8 that the US will not attack Iran before the Nov 3 midterm elections while keeping the naval blockade in full force, and cl… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Brent stayed above $100 all week on shipping-attack risk but direction shifted with the headlines. — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Evidence on the record's framing tension: Iranian crude loadings fell from nearly 2 million b/d before the blockade to effectively zero in… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

The planned Saudi-backed offensive began on Oct 5, 2026: the internationally recognized Yemeni government announced a coastal push to retak… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

Houthi retaliation escalated to direct strikes inside Saudi Arabia. — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

Oil and freight markets reacted to the escalation. — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement moved from paper to implementation. — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

The early-October whipsaw completed a full round trip driven by physical supply evidence. — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Weather and stock evidence both leaned bearish for the 2026/27 outlook. — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

December ICE NY cocoa rallied to two- to three-week highs on Oct 5 as excessive Ivorian rain cut off roads and damaged bridges, slowing del… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

New-season Ivorian port arrivals accelerated, rising from 54,500 tonnes by Oct 4 to an estimated 77,500 tonnes about a week later, confirmi… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

Rains in Ivory Coast delayed the cocoa harvest and supported prices on October 12, according to Barchart and Yahoo Finance reporting, while… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

Drought linked to El Nino has caused P189.47 million in agricultural damage in Bohol, Philippines, with rice accounting for 95.09% of the l… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Japan's Meteorological Agency said on October 9 that El Nino had reached its strongest level on record since September: the September sea-s… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Bursa CPO futures rebounded in the Oct 5-9 week, with the December 2026 contract up 1.26% on the week (its first weekly gain in three) befo… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

On the demand side, Chicago and Dalian soyoil prices firmed during the Oct 5-9 week, giving CPO some support; the Chicago contract had dipp… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Rice supply pressure added new fronts: Vietnam is working to bring in the harvest after heavy rains (Vietnam.vn, Oct 9), Thai rice rates ro… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Brazilian supply recovery dominated the tape even as weather risk persisted elsewhere: StoneX via CEPEA (09 Oct 2026) reported rains favori… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Cocoa slid on rising supply and demand worries: TradingView (06 Oct 2026) reported cocoa prices falling as ICE cocoa inventories soar, and… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the odds that October to December 2026 will be a historic-strength El Nino (three-month RONI at lea… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

The WMO's October Global Seasonal Climate Update, a consensus of 13 national and international centers, forecasts El Nino to intensify towa… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

GAPKI used GLOBOIL India 2026 to outline three structural reforms that could reshape Indonesian CPO trade from 2027: single-gate exports th… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

A new export-policy development entered the palm-oil market: Indonesia's export overhaul could tighten palm oil supplies from 2027 (ChemAna… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Rice supply signals tightened across three fronts: India's kharif rice acreage fell 3.5% on an uneven monsoon (BigMint, Oct 8), Arkansas's… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Central American coffee prices rallied on El Nino-linked drought (TradingView, Zawya, Oct 8), and TradingView reported on Oct 6 that prices… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Seed revision: this record was authored under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15 - no invented figures, every '%' figur… — Lumber's October 2026 supply-tightening headlines — against a falling price

Record created from the 2026-10-07 evening news-pipeline sweep (candidate lumber-news-spike-20261008, screened medium conviction 2/3) at Ha… — Lumber's October 2026 supply-tightening headlines — against a falling price

Seed revision: this record was authored under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15 - no invented figures, every '%' figur… — Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments — liquidation now, smaller herd later?

Record created from the 2026-10-07 evening news-pipeline sweep (candidate live-cattle-signal-jump-20261008, screened low conviction 1/3) at… — Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments — liquidation now, smaller herd later?

Seed revision: this record was authored under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15 - no invented figures, every '%' figur… — Orange juice's 16% three-week rally — with no shock in the evidence

Record created from the 2026-10-07 evening news-pipeline sweep (candidate orange-juice-expert-watch-20261008, screened low conviction 1/3)… — Orange juice's 16% three-week rally — with no shock in the evidence

Russia has effectively renewed its blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports since the summer, shutting Odesa's major ports and disrupting grai… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not issued a new monthly outlook since the September 10 discussion, which put El Niño at a greater tha… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Indonesia's BMKG says the very strong El Niño persists alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with the rainy season arriving late across… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Bursa Malaysia CPO futures reversed lower late-Sep into Oct 2 as high inventories and weak exports outweighed El Niño supply fears. — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Coffee whipsawed late Sep / early Oct. — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

December ICE NY cocoa round-tripped in late September: after falling ~10.6% to ~$5,330/t by Sep 18, it rallied to $5,619 by ~Sep 26 (up ~5.… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sept 26; Iran's terms were that the US lift its naval blockade, rele… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

India's monsoon is its weakest since 2015, with farmers and shopowners counting the cost (ThePrint, Oct 2) — the domestic-production pressu… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Reuters reported Saudi Arabia is planning a major offensive to reclaim the Red Sea passage, led by Yemeni ground forces under Riyadh oversi… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Shura Council the kingdom would respond firmly to any attack, pointing to a multinational defensi… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

EBRD forecasts Ukraine's grain and oilseed exports will fall 50-60% in H2 2026 as Black Sea disruptions persist; wheat prices up more than… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Russia exits the grain deal: Chicago wheat rises, then falls

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — 2008 rice export restrictions and price increases

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Russia’s 2010 grain ban: Chicago wheat across the ban window

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Replaced the claim that the market shrugged with FAO’s published international rice index increase. — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal (March 2021)

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — The 2012 US drought: corn futures across two harvests

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

The supply-recovery narrative met fresh weather risk on September 25: back-to-back storms battered Hawaii coffee farms during the critical… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a decli… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

A new policy lever entered the palm-oil market this week: Nation Thailand reports Thailand plans to raise rice and crude palm oil reserves… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

The post-drought selloff continued into the week of September 22: front-month arabica (KC=F) stood at 277.95 cents/lb on September 24, down… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Ukraine's export logistics deteriorated further in the week after the last refresh. — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

On Sep 19, the Pacific's key El Niño monitoring region reached 3.05°C above average, breaking the prior record from November 2015 — with ro… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide emergency on Sep 21, mobilizing state resources (flood-fighting supplies, Caltrans… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Malaysian palm oil futures swung from a 21-month high to a more-than-five-week low in one week: the December 2026 CPO contract closed at RM… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

On Sep 22 Kyodo News reported that a senior Iranian official said Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US take… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

The post-drought selloff deepened to 3-month lows on September 21-22: December arabica (KCZ26) closed at 276.40 cents per pound (-4.10c, -1… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Cocoa broke decisively lower the week of September 14-20: ICE December New York cocoa fell 10.64% from $5,961 to $5,327 per tonne, breaking… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

The Black Sea supply shock is back in a new chapter: Russia attacked Ukrainian deepwater ports from late June 2026, Ukrainian grain exports… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the probability of a historic-strength El Niño for October–December 2026 to 75% on Sep 10 (up from… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

India's 2026 crop faces its biggest output drop in nearly two decades — down about 10M tonnes (≈6.5%) from last year's record 154M tonnes,… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

The Feb 2026 escalation is now verified: US and Israeli strikes hit Iran on Feb 28, 2026 (a senior Israeli official told Reuters Khamenei w… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

September 2026 brought a second Red Sea chapter: the Houthis seized Mokha port plus Perim and the Hanish islands and declared an embargo on… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

The drought-driven rally fully unwound on record supply: the ICO projected a record 2025/26 global crop of 183.6M bags (+4.4% y/y) against… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

CC=F cocoa sat at $5,620 per tonne as of 2026-09-17, down 5.72% over five days and 7.05% over twenty days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run,… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for May-Oct 2012 at the Iowa corn belt centroid: +1.38 C mean temperature anomaly vs the 1991-2020 ba… — The 2012 US drought: corn futures across two harvests

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for Apr-Oct 2024 at the Minas Gerais coffee centroid: +0.52 C mean temperature anomaly vs the 1991-20… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the Oct 2023-Mar 2024 main-crop window at the Ghana cocoa belt centroid: +0.81 C mean temperature… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

An independent adversarial review corrected the Russian 2022 wheat crop figure to Rosstat's final 104.2 MMT and softened the lesson to one… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

Added two evidence lines: ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window (anomaly figures vs 1991-2020 baseline; weather data provide… — Russia invades Ukraine: the Black Sea grain and fertilizer shock

An independent adversarial review cut unproven claims about how markets had positioned, replacing them with what was verifiable: a telegrap… — Russia exits the grain deal: Chicago wheat rises, then falls

Added two evidence lines: ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window (anomaly figures vs 1991-2020 baseline; weather data provide… — Russia exits the grain deal: Chicago wheat rises, then falls

An independent adversarial review rewrote the lesson to reflect mixed outcomes across tracked commodities (wheat fell, rice/soy/sugar did n… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Added two evidence lines: ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window (anomaly figures vs 1991-2020 baseline; weather data provide… — El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

An independent adversarial review removed the 'panic, not shortage' framing. — 2008 rice export restrictions and price increases

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window: anomaly figures vs the 1991-2020 baseline from Morrowfly's research vintage v1_… — 2008 rice export restrictions and price increases

An independent adversarial review identified the −11.6% outcome basis as the Jul 2010 pre-announcement month-end reading and recast the les… — Russia’s 2010 grain ban: Chicago wheat across the ban window

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window: anomaly figures vs the 1991-2020 baseline from Morrowfly's research vintage v1_… — Russia’s 2010 grain ban: Chicago wheat across the ban window

An independent adversarial review labeled the −40.5% Mar→Jul 2022 window as beginning before the ban announcement and spanning the broader… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window: anomaly figures vs the 1991-2020 baseline from Morrowfly's research vintage v1_… — Indonesia’s 2022 palm-oil ban and the wider price decline

An independent adversarial review corrected 'world rice prices' to CBOT rough-rice (ZR=F) futures, which is not a global rice-price benchma… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window: anomaly figures vs the 1991-2020 baseline from Morrowfly's research vintage v1_… — India’s 2023 rice ban: international rice prices rose

An independent adversarial review corrected the 12→13 June 2025 daily moves to recomputed CBOT front-month closes (wheat +3.28%, corn +1.37… — June 2025 Iran–Israel/US conflict ("Twelve-Day War")

An independent adversarial review replaced 'insulated by safe-passage assurances' with the honest account: assurances were given and shipme… — Red Sea / Houthi shipping disruption (2023–24)

An independent adversarial review stripped the monthly grain windows as event evidence — they cannot attribute a six-day blockage — and the… — Ever Given blocks the Suez Canal (March 2021)

Seed revision marking this record as published under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15: outcome figures recomputed fro… — The 2012 US drought: corn futures across two harvests

Seed revision marking this record as published under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15: outcome figures recomputed fro… — Brazil’s 2024 drought and the arabica futures rally

Seed revision marking this record as published under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15: outcome figures recomputed fro… — West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path