The Shadow Book
What will happen? Here's our thinking.
We take live questions from prediction markets and work through them — the evidence, the uncertainties, and what would change our mind. Read our reasoning, then form your own view.
We paper-trade our own views so you can see how our thinking ages. Not financial advice. Not a recommendation.
The paper book so far
-$66.20 paper P&L (-5.0%)
Paper only. Open marks are unrealized.
Across 1 open positions ($500 in paper stakes) and 2 exited positions, $1,315 staked in total, marked at the latest prices in our published data, as of Oct 23, 2026. The live market always has the current number.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Our NO is marked at 95% (current price from Polymarket (daily mark), Oct 23, 2026): $0.00.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Our NO was exited at 26% on Oct 22, 2026: -$112.78 realized.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Our NO was exited at 88% on Oct 22, 2026: +$46.58 realized.
Graded calls: 0 resolved. When a position settles, its grade is published on Receipts.
What we're thinking through now
Exited early — on the record
We closed these paper positions before their markets settle, at the prices shown, for the reasons on each card. The forecasts themselves still grade when the markets resolve.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
ExitedMarket
60%
We think
52%
Three months is a short window for talks that haven't started.
Exited Oct 22, 2026 at 26% (our NO side) · realized -$112.78 on a $315 paper stake.
Definition risk: the settlement clause proved wider than the entry underwriting. Framework v2 continuation test failed on a blind re-underwrite (YES 77%, range 66-86%). Council 3-2 for exit; ratified by Harsha Oct 22, 2026.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
ExitedMarket
20%
We think
10%
Ships aren't coming back to the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon. The market gives it a 1-in-5 shot by New Year's; we think it's closer to 1-in-10.
Exited Oct 22, 2026 at 88% (our NO side) · realized +$46.58 on a $500 paper stake.
Edge exhausted: re-underwritten YES range 10-16% against a market at 11.5%; the conservative bound fails the Framework v2 continuation test at the executable bid. Council 4-1 for exit; ratified by Harsha Oct 22, 2026.
Markets to think about
Live questions we find interesting — curated across energy, weather, geopolitics, macro, and commodities. We haven't taken a view on these yet; that's the point. Read the question we'd start with, then go reason it through yourself.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
EnergyMarket
19%
Crude exports are reportedly back at prewar levels, yet the market prices full shipping normalization at just 19%. It resolves mechanically on IMF Portwatch data — no judgment calls.
If crude is flowing again, what's still keeping ships away — and what would it take to get back to 60 transits a day?
Think it through →
US recession by end of 2026?
MacroMarket
8%
Only 8% — the market is confident the expansion continues. Recessions are rare but the payoff for seeing one early is enormous. The question is what you'd watch to change your mind.
What breaks first — the labor market, credit, or consumer spending — and would we see it coming in the data we track?
Think it through →
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
GeopoliticsMarket
9%
9% — low probability, world-changing outcome. The interesting question isn't the number, it's the ladder of escalation: what happens first, and which step is the point of no return?
What would have to go wrong — and what are the observable steps between here and there?
Think it through →
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?
CommoditiesMarket
27%
27% — genuinely uncertain, not a consensus. Section 232 tariffs have already reshaped steel and aluminum; copper would ripple through construction, EVs, and the grid buildout.
Copper is the metal of electrification — who wins and who pays if a 232 tariff lands?
Think it through →
What will WTI crude oil hit in October 2026?
EnergyMarket
Price ladder — see the live board for each band.
A ladder of price bands, so you can express exactly how far you think the disruption premium goes. Our commodity monitor tracks the physical side daily.
With Hormuz disrupted and OPEC divided, where does the physical market clear?
Think it through →
What will gold hit in October 2026?
CommoditiesMarket
Price ladder — see the live board for each band.
Gold keeps making highs through war, tariffs, and rate uncertainty. A ladder market lets you bet on the magnitude, not just the direction.
Is gold's run about fear, rates, or central banks — and which of those reverses first?
Think it through →
How many hurricanes will form in the 2026 Atlantic season?
WeatherMarket
Count ladder — see the live board for each band.
Zero hurricanes so far — the first time since 1914. Record wind shear is the story. The question is whether October can still produce one against the climatology.
The season is the quietest since 1914 — but October is when the Gulf can still surprise.
Think it through →
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
MacroMarket
96%
The market is 96% sure: no cuts this year. Consensus this strong is interesting precisely because the payoff sits in the 4% — what breaks that would force the Fed's hand?
What would have to break for the Fed to cut with the market pricing a 96% chance it won't?
Think it through →
Prices as of Oct 3, 2026. The live market always has the current number.
What we passed on — and why
We looked at these markets, did the work, and decided there wasn't enough edge to take a view. Saying so is part of the record.
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
PassedMarket
16%
We think
20%
Iraq is openly threatening to walk out over quotas, with a decision point in late November. We put the chance near 20% — close to the market's 16%, so we're passing.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US before 2027?
PassedMarket
7%
We think
4%
The 2026 season is historically dead — zero hurricanes, record wind shear. We put the chance near 4%, close to the market's 6.5%. Passing.
US recession by end of 2026?
PassedMarket
8%
We think
6%
We looked hard at a US recession by year-end and couldn't find an edge. The market's 8% looks about right.
How we keep ourselves honest
- We write down our view before the outcome — no rewriting history.
- We say how confident we are, in plain words — including when we're not confident.
- When we pass on a market, we say why. Wins and misses go on the record alike.