Every registered call, newest first. Each entry shows its criterion and check-back date — nothing here asks you to take our word for anything.
Awaiting check-backLiveELEVATEDOct 17, 2026
“Coffee scored ELEVATED (6/10) on 2026-10-17. Top physical driver: KCZ26.NYB Dec-2026 backwardation, steepening — prompt premium widening, implied convenience yield rising”
Coffee · scored 6/10 (3.4)
The criterion — decided before the outcome
At the +30-day check-back: PASS if the commodity's supply-risk score is still >= 6 (ELEVATED or higher) under the same scoring version, or the monthly average is ≥10% above the call-month average; otherwise FAIL.
Check-back: Nov 16, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveELEVATEDOct 17, 2026
“Crude oil scored ELEVATED (6/10) on 2026-10-17. Top physical driver: BZZ26.NYM Dec-2026 backwardation, steepening — prompt premium widening, implied convenience yield rising”
Crude oil · scored 6/10 (3.4)
The criterion — decided before the outcome
At the +30-day check-back: PASS if the commodity's supply-risk score is still >= 6 (ELEVATED or higher) under the same scoring version, or the monthly average is ≥10% above the call-month average; otherwise FAIL.
Check-back: Nov 16, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 12, 2026
“Hormuz transits stay depressed while Middle East crude exports hold near pre-war levels into early 2027”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
Kpler or Vortexa data reported by Reuters for January 2027 shows Strait of Hormuz crude transits still below pre-war levels while total Middle East exports remain within 10 percent of pre-war levels.
Check-back: Feb 28, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 12, 2026
“Bab el-Mandeb coastal control shifts toward the Saudi-backed coalition through H1 2027 while Houthi retaliation against Saudi targets continues”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
ISW/CTP or Reuters reporting by the check-back date confirms coalition control of Mocha and the Bab el-Mandeb coastal strip, or confirms the offensive stalled with Houthi coastal control unchanged.
Check-back: Jun 30, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 12, 2026
“India keeps rice export channels open under the current licensing regime through the 2026/27 season while global prices stay elevated”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
DGFT notifications or Reuters reporting by the check-back date either confirm no new Indian rice export ban or curb was imposed, or record the new restriction if one appears.
Check-back: Mar 31, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 12, 2026
“A BSGI-like Black Sea grain agreement is negotiated during 2027”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
Reuters or UN reporting by the check-back date confirms a signed Black Sea grain corridor agreement, or reports the Turkey and UN talks ended without an agreement.
Check-back: Dec 31, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 8, 2026
“Lumber supply-tightening headlines (Oct 2026): watch whether export flows tighten further.”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
By 2026-11-06, observe per Lesprom Network / Madison's Lumber Reporter whether lumber export flows tighten further and whether LBR=F moves >=10% in either direction.
Check-back: Nov 6, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 8, 2026
“Wyoming drought forces cattle shipments (Oct 2026): watch whether shipments reverse and the live-cattle supply score moves.”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
By 2026-11-06, observe per USDA Cattle on Feed whether drought-driven shipments reverse and whether the live-cattle supply score moves from 4.
Check-back: Nov 6, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 8, 2026
“Orange juice rallied 16% over 20 days (Oct 2026) with no attributable shock in the screened evidence.”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
By 2026-11-06, observe per Citrus Industry Magazine/USDA whether Florida/Brazil citrus condition reports indicate a supply threat (conditional trigger only).
Check-back: Nov 6, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveELEVATEDOct 6, 2026
“Cotton scored ELEVATED (6/10) on 2026-10-06. Top physical driver: CTZ26.NYB Dec-2026 contango (steepening) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample”
Cotton · scored 6/10 (3.4)
The criterion — decided before the outcome
At the +30-day check-back: PASS if the commodity's supply-risk score is still >= 6 (ELEVATED or higher) under the same scoring version, or the month-end close is ≥10% above the call-month close; otherwise FAIL.
Check-back: Nov 5, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 5, 2026
“Ukraine's major Black Sea grain ports stay closed to export traffic through year-end 2026 as the Russian blockade persists”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
At check-back, Ukrainian or EBRD monthly figures show December 2026 grain+oilseed exports at or below the July 2026 monthly level.
Check-back: Jan 31, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 5, 2026
“El Nino stays very strong through winter 2026-27”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
NOAA CPC or IRI declares the event very strong in its December 2026-February 2027 seasonal reading (traditional Nino-3.4 at or above +2.0C).
Check-back: Mar 31, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 5, 2026
“Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures stay range-bound to weaker into month-end on high inventories and weak exports”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
December 2026 CPO contract October 2026 month-end close at or below RM 4,535/t (the October 2, 2026 settlement).
Check-back: Oct 31, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 5, 2026
“ICE coffee futures hold at or above early-October levels through month-end as Brazil dryness persists into the flowering stage”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
December 2026 arabica (KCZ26) and November 2026 robusta (RMX26) October 2026 month-end closes are at or above their October 2, 2026 settlements.
Check-back: Oct 31, 2026
Awaiting check-backLiveOct 5, 2026
“Ivory Coast's 2026/27 cocoa output comes in below the 2025/26 crop on weak cherelle formation and below-normal rainfall”
· no band score — live event expectation
The criterion — decided before the outcome
The Ivorian regulator or ICCO reports 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa output below 2.0 MMT.
Check-back: Jul 31, 2027
Awaiting check-backLiveHIGHSep 29, 2026
“Sugar scored HIGH (8/10) on 2026-09-29. Top physical driver: SBH27.NYB Mar-2027 backwardation, steepening — prompt premium widening, implied convenience yield rising”
Sugar · scored 8/10 (3.4)
The criterion — decided before the outcome
At the +30-day check-back: PASS if the commodity's supply-risk score is still >= 6 (ELEVATED or higher) under the same scoring version, or the month-end close is ≥10% above the call-month close; otherwise FAIL.
Check-back: Oct 29, 2026
Awaiting check-backReconstructedELEVATEDSep 27, 2026
“Rice assessed ELEVATED (score 6/10) under scoring v3.3.”
Rice · scored 6/10 (3.3)
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Score still >=6 (ELEVATED+) at check-back OR front-month price >=10% above call date.
Check-back: Oct 27, 2026
MissReconstructedELEVATEDAug 31, 2026
“La Nina Texas drought; managed-money short-covering squeeze (cotton, +44.2% 6-month run-up to 2026-08).”
Cotton · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Sep 30, 2026
What happened · graded Oct 5, 2026
cotton: 2026-09 month-end close 82.38 US cents/lb vs 2026-08 close 91.70 US cents/lb (-10.2%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDAug 31, 2026
“Iran-war fertilizer shock + emerging El Nino (rice, +46.7% 6-month run-up to 2026-08).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Sep 30, 2026
What happened · graded Oct 5, 2026
rice: 2026-09 month-end close 16.02 USD/cwt vs 2026-08 close 15.25 USD/cwt (+5.0%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedJun 1, 2025
“The June 2025 Iran-Israel/US conflict would put ~20% of world oil supply at risk via Hormuz (Brent +10% to >$77), while grain shorts covered on the risk (Euronext wheat up Jun 13) and urea prices surged on threatened fertilizer supply.”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Oil supply was disrupted and grain/fertilizer prices stayed elevated.
Check-back: Jun 24, 2025
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
No oil supply was disrupted: Hormuz never closed and loadings continued. On the published basis (Pink Sheet monthly closes), crude went May 2025 62.17 to Jun 68.17 to Jul 68.39 to Aug 64.86 USD/bbl; the claim's above-$77 level was a brief daily print (intraday above $80 around Jun 22-23) that reversed within days of the Jun 24 ceasefire, and the grain and fertilizer moves normalized with it. Per this ledger's Black Sea precedent, a short-lived spike without a sustained mechanism grades Miss.
MissReconstructedHIGHApr 30, 2025
“Brazil record drought slashes 2025/26 crop outlook (coffee, +68.2% 6-month run-up to 2025-04).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2025
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
coffee: 2025-05 month-end close 342.45 US cents/lb vs 2025-04 close 413.60 US cents/lb (-17.2%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
HitReconstructedApr 1, 2024
“With arabica at 47-year highs, the 2025/26 harvest was compromised before flowering and prices would appreciate further as producers held back (Tridge, Nov 2024).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Coffee kept appreciating on the compromised 2025/26 outlook (drought ran 2024-04 to 2025-03).
Check-back: Mar 31, 2025
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
coffee (Pink Sheet, monthly averages): Apr 2024 5.27 → Mar 2025 8.92 USD/kg (+69.3%), peak Feb 2025 9.05 — coffee kept appreciating on the compromised 2025/26 outlook through the frozen window.
MissReconstructedNov 1, 2023
“The Red Sea/Houthi shipping disruption would push grain market prices higher and feed inflation via shipping costs (Rusagrotrans via Interfax, Jan 2024; IMF).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Grain prices rose on the disruption (disruption ran 2023-11 to 2024-04-30).
Check-back: Apr 30, 2024
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
grains (Pink Sheet monthly averages, Nov 2023 → Apr 2024): wheat 283.6 → 272.3 (−4.0%), corn 211.3 → 191.7 (−9.3%), soybeans 553.0 → 477.0 (−13.7%) USD/t — all three grains fell across the whole disruption window; grain prices did not rise on the disruption.
MissReconstructedHIGHOct 31, 2023
“Record-low juice stocks (84,745t); small Brazil crop; Idalia (orange_juice, +56.1% 6-month run-up to 2023-10).”
Orange juice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2023
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
orange_juice: 2023-11 month-end close 401.00 US cents/lb vs 2023-10 close 417.70 US cents/lb (-4.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedJul 1, 2023
“Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative would jump wheat prices and risk a fresh bout of destabilizing global food inflation (Jul 2023).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Wheat sustained gains and food inflation destabilized.
Check-back: Sep 29, 2023
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
wheat (Pink Sheet US HRW, monthly averages): Jun 2023 345.5 → Jul 345.5 (+0.0%) → Sep 314.7 (−8.9%) → Dec 291.1 (−15.7%) USD/t — no sustained gains at any point in the window. (The entry's old-basis note claimed +4.6% for Jun–Jul; the published basis shows flat, and the published basis governs.)
PartialReconstructedJul 1, 2023
“India's July 2023 rice export halt would roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter and trigger further global food inflation (Reuters; B.V. Krishna Rao: faster disruption than Ukraine did to wheat).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Global food inflation followed and rice stayed elevated (ban ran 2023-07 to 2024-09).
Check-back: Sep 30, 2024
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
Rice (Pink Sheet, monthly closes) stayed elevated for the entire window: Jul 2023 547.0 to a Jan 2024 peak of 660.0 to Sep 2024 580.0 USD/t. India's rice exports fell sharply under the ban but by roughly a fifth overall, not the claimed halving, and global food inflation declined through 2023-24 rather than rising further. The elevation leg held; the magnitude and inflation legs fell short: graded Partial.
HitReconstructedJan 1, 2023
“West Africa's cocoa shortfall - a third straight deficit with a fourth priced in - would keep cocoa prices elevated (ICCO via Finimize, Dec 2024).”
Cocoa · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Cocoa stayed elevated on continued deficits (deficit ran 2023-01 to 2024-12).
Check-back: Dec 31, 2024
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
cocoa (Pink Sheet, monthly averages): Jan 2023 2.62 → Dec 2024 10.32 USD/kg (+293.9%); the window minimum is the starting value itself — prices never fell below where the call began, staying elevated on continued deficits for the full window.
MissReconstructedHIGHApr 30, 2022
“Jan-2022 freeze; USDA cut crop to 41.2M boxes, smallest since 1945 (orange_juice, +51.6% 6-month run-up to 2022-04).”
Orange juice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2022
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
orange_juice: 2022-05 month-end close 177.35 US cents/lb vs 2022-04 close 182.40 US cents/lb (-2.8%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
HitReconstructedApr 1, 2022
“Indonesia's April 2022 palm oil export ban would shock already-record global edible-oil markets, leaving consumers no option but to pay top dollar (Reuters/LMC, Apr 2022).”
Palm oil · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Edible-oil prices stayed at record/high levels through the ban (ban ran 2022-04 to 2022-05).
Check-back: May 31, 2022
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
palm oil (Pink Sheet, monthly averages): Mar 2022 1,777.0 USD/t (the all-time series maximum), Apr 1,683.0, May 1,717.0 — both ban months within 3.4% of the record, so prices stayed at record/high levels through the ban as the criterion requires. The collapse (Jul 1,057.0) came after the ban ended and is outside the frozen window.
PartialReconstructedFeb 1, 2022
“The Russia-Ukraine war would push wheat prices to record highs and shift the 10-year outlook for all major crops to a new price level (RaboResearch, Apr 2022).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Wheat reached record highs and the multi-year crop-price outlook repriced to a new level - judge against month-end closes.
Check-back: May 2, 2022
What happened · graded Oct 15, 2026
wheat (Pink Sheet US HRW, monthly averages): Jan 2022 374.2 → Mar 486.3 → May 522.3 USD/t, above the pre-2022 series maximum (Mar 2008: 439.7) — the record-high leg holds. The new-price-level leg fails: Jun 2023 345.5, Dec 2023 291.1 USD/t, back below pre-invasion levels within 16 months. Graded on monthly averages (the published basis) per the editorial queue of 2026-10-15.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDJan 31, 2022
“October WASDE cut US crop; speculative longs surged (cotton, +42.0% 6-month run-up to 2022-01).”
Cotton · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 2, 2022
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
cotton: 2022-03 month-end close 135.69 US cents/lb vs 2022-01 close 127.57 US cents/lb (+6.4%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedHIGHSep 30, 2021
“Brazil frost, Jul 2021 (coffee, +57.1% 6-month run-up to 2021-09).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Oct 30, 2021
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
coffee: 2021-10 month-end close 203.95 US cents/lb vs 2021-09 close 194.00 US cents/lb (+5.1%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDApr 30, 2021
“8-year high on supply worries; ~500kt projected deficit (copper, +47.4% 6-month run-up to 2021-04).”
Copper · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2021
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
copper: 2021-05 month-end close 4.68 USD/lb vs 2021-04 close 4.48 USD/lb (+4.5%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedMar 1, 2021
“The Ever Given's Suez blockage would cost global trade $6-10B per week and keep oil prices and tanker rates elevated until freed (Allianz; Reuters, Mar 2021).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Trade costs and oil stayed elevated for the blockage's duration.
Check-back: Mar 29, 2021
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
The blockage ran Mar 23 to 29, 2021, six days, freed on the check-back date. Lloyd's List estimated held-up trade at roughly $9.6B per day of cargo value, far above the claim's $6-10B per week, so the cost leg was met in scale, though stated as delayed cargo value rather than realized loss. Oil did not stay elevated for the duration: Brent rose about 6% on Mar 24, then fell back before the refloat. One leg held, one failed: graded Partial. (A six-day window cannot be graded on the monthly published series; this grade rests on the daily public record.)
PartialReconstructedHIGHJan 31, 2021
“China's record buying on hog-herd rebuild; La Nina dryness (soybeans, +52.6% 6-month run-up to 2021-01).”
Soybeans · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 2, 2021
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
soybeans: 2021-03 month-end close 1,436.75 US cents/bushel vs 2021-01 close 1,370.00 US cents/bushel (+4.9%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDApr 30, 2017
“Strong beef demand; feedlots current, cash surges (live_cattle, +33.9% 6-month run-up to 2017-04).”
Live cattle · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2017
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
live_cattle: 2017-05 month-end close 124.42 US cents/lb vs 2017-04 close 138.00 US cents/lb (-9.8%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHApr 30, 2014
“Severe Brazil drought threatens 2014/15 arabica crop (coffee, +92.6% 6-month run-up to 2014-04).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2014
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
coffee: 2014-05 month-end close 177.50 US cents/lb vs 2014-04 close 203.05 US cents/lb (-12.6%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDFeb 28, 2014
“PED virus pork shortfall; herd at 63-year low (live_cattle, +23.8% 6-month run-up to 2014-02).”
Live cattle · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2014
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
live_cattle: 2014-03 month-end close 145.85 US cents/lb vs 2014-02 close 151.95 US cents/lb (-4.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDJul 31, 2012
“Worst US drought since 1956 crushes corn/soy yields (soybeans, +43.5% 6-month run-up to 2012-07).”
Soybeans · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Aug 30, 2012
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
soybeans: 2012-08 month-end close 1,764.50 US cents/bushel vs 2012-07 close 1,721.00 US cents/bushel (+2.5%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedJun 1, 2012
“CBOT corn, over $8/bushel on Jul 23 (from $6 end-June), would reach $9 per bushel within three months (Goldman Sachs, Jul 2012); the Kansas City Fed warned of ~4% added to annual food prices.”
Corn · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
CBOT corn front-month >= $9/bushel by end-Oct 2012.
Check-back: Sep 30, 2012
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
corn: 2012-10 month-end close 755.75 US cents/bushel vs target 900 — clearly below the target.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDMar 31, 2011
“Record Texas drought liquidates herd; record feed costs (live_cattle, +25.7% 6-month run-up to 2011-03).”
Live cattle · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Apr 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
live_cattle: 2011-04 month-end close 117.05 US cents/lb vs 2011-03 close 121.55 US cents/lb (-3.7%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHFeb 28, 2011
“La Nina record rains slash Colombia crop outlook (coffee, +53.7% 6-month run-up to 2011-02).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
coffee: 2011-03 month-end close 264.15 US cents/lb vs 2011-02 close 271.70 US cents/lb (-2.8%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHFeb 28, 2011
“Pakistan floods cut crop; India halted export registrations (cotton, +130.3% 6-month run-up to 2011-02).”
Cotton · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
cotton: 2011-03 month-end close 200.23 US cents/lb vs 2011-02 close 205.14 US cents/lb (-2.4%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedHIGHDec 31, 2010
“ETF hoarding bids: JPMorgan held ~50% of LME deliverable stock (copper, +51.0% 6-month run-up to 2010-12).”
Copper · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Jan 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
copper: 2011-01 month-end close 4.45 USD/lb vs 2010-12 close 4.44 USD/lb (+0.2%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
HitReconstructedELEVATEDDec 31, 2010
“Pakistan floods + Russia wheat-ban spillover (thin-market overshoot) (rice, +48.4% 6-month run-up to 2010-12).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Jan 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
rice: 2011-01 month-end close 15.51 USD/cwt vs 2010-12 close 13.99 USD/cwt (+10.9%) — at least 10% above the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDDec 31, 2010
“La Nina drought hits Argentina/Brazil; Russia wheat ban spillover (soybeans, +46.9% 6-month run-up to 2010-12).”
Soybeans · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Jan 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
soybeans: 2011-01 month-end close 1,413.00 US cents/bushel vs 2010-12 close 1,393.75 US cents/bushel (+1.4%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedHIGHDec 31, 2010
“Russia heatwave; Aug-2010 export ban after ~20% crop loss (wheat, +70.9% 6-month run-up to 2010-12).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Jan 30, 2011
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
wheat: 2011-01 month-end close 840.75 US cents/bushel vs 2010-12 close 794.25 US cents/bushel (+5.9%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedAug 1, 2010
“Russia's August 2010 grain export ban, after drought destroyed ~20% of its wheat crop, would trigger another food crisis (Aug 2010).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
A food crisis materialized - judge against the contemporary counter-voice (IGD: markets better prepared, no need to panic).
Check-back: Oct 30, 2010
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
Wheat (Pink Sheet, monthly closes): Jun 2010 157.7 to Aug 246.2 to Oct 270.2 USD/t, up 71% across the window to the Oct 30, 2010 check-back, with copycat export quotas (Ukraine, Oct 2010) and food riots in Mozambique (Sep 2010). A crisis was materializing inside the window, but the FAO index's record peak (Feb 2011) and the fullest crisis dynamics arrived after the check-back and are excluded by the frozen window. Graded Partial.
MissReconstructedHIGHSep 30, 2009
“India drought spurs import-surge expectations; Brazil crop doubts (sugar, +90.4% 6-month run-up to 2009-09).”
Sugar · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Oct 30, 2009
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
sugar: 2009-10 month-end close 22.81 US cents/lb vs 2009-09 close 24.12 US cents/lb (-5.4%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHAug 31, 2009
“China infrastructure buying on record Feb-2009 imports (copper, +83.7% 6-month run-up to 2009-08).”
Copper · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Sep 30, 2009
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
copper: 2009-09 month-end close 2.81 USD/lb vs 2009-08 close 2.81 USD/lb (+0.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedJun 1, 2009
“The 2015-16 El Nino would lift agricultural prices - Rabobank: Australian wheat typically fell ~25% in El Nino years; Schroders: big spikes in coffee, cocoa, palm oil, sugar, wheat; New Scientist: S&P ag index +24.4% on average in the year after past El Ninos (vs the World Bank's contrarian 'unlikely to spike' call).”
Palm oil · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Agricultural prices rose across the episode - judge the 2015-16 window (Jun 2015-May 2016).
Check-back: May 31, 2016
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
The claimed complex on the published basis (Pink Sheet monthly closes, Jun 2015 to May 2016): sugar 0.27 to 0.38 USD/kg (+41%), palm oil 706 to 753 USD/t with an in-window spike to 775 (Apr 2016), coffee 3.52 to 3.42 and cocoa 3.24 to 3.10 (flat, no spike), wheat 209.8 to 172.0 USD/t (down 18%, the direction the Rabobank leg itself predicted for wheat in El Nino years). The +24.4% agriculture-index leg did not occur. A split compound claim: graded Partial.
MissReconstructedHIGHApr 30, 2008
“Export bans (India, Vietnam, others) + importer panic-buying (rice, +81.3% 6-month run-up to 2008-04).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2008
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
rice: 2008-05 month-end close 19.10 USD/cwt vs 2008-04 close 21.48 USD/cwt (-11.1%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHFeb 29, 2008
“South Africa power crisis halts mines, slashes output (platinum, +69.5% 6-month run-up to 2008-02).”
Platinum · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2008
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
platinum: 2008-03 month-end close 2,024.40 USD/troy oz vs 2008-02 close 2,155.70 USD/troy oz (-6.1%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHFeb 29, 2008
“2007-08 food crisis: tight stocks, weak dollar, strong demand (soybeans, +75.3% 6-month run-up to 2008-02).”
Soybeans · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2008
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
soybeans: 2008-03 month-end close 1,197.25 US cents/bushel vs 2008-02 close 1,522.00 US cents/bushel (-21.3%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHFeb 29, 2008
“Commodity-boom speculative buying despite global sugar glut (sugar, +50.5% 6-month run-up to 2008-02).”
Sugar · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2008
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
sugar: 2008-03 month-end close 11.69 US cents/lb vs 2008-02 close 14.27 US cents/lb (-18.1%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedOct 1, 2007
“International rice prices, up 76% Dec 2007-Apr 2008, would remain extremely firm at least until Q3 2008 unless export restrictions eased (FAO, May 2008).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
Rice prices remain extremely firm through Q3 2008 - no sustained decline from April 2008 levels while restrictions persist.
Check-back: Sep 30, 2008
What happened · graded Oct 22, 2026
Rice (Pink Sheet, monthly closes): Apr 2008 907.0 USD/t at the peak, then a sustained decline inside the window: Jun 757.0, Jul 731.8, Aug 693.5, Sep 683.8, down 24.6% from April by the Sep 30, 2008 check-back. Prices did not remain extremely firm through Q3 2008; the decline began in June while several export restrictions were still in place. Graded Miss against the criterion's no-sustained-decline test. (The claim's +76% for Dec 2007 to Apr 2008 reads +151.5% on this published basis.)
MissReconstructedHIGHSep 30, 2007
“Second straight small world crop; $8.40 record Sept futures (wheat, +114.4% 6-month run-up to 2007-09).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Oct 30, 2007
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
wheat: 2007-10 month-end close 808.00 US cents/bushel vs 2007-09 close 939.00 US cents/bushel (-14.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDOct 31, 2006
“Australia drought halves 2006/07 harvest; world stocks at 25-year low (wheat, +39.5% 6-month run-up to 2006-10).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2006
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
wheat: 2006-11 month-end close 502.00 US cents/bushel vs 2006-10 close 483.00 US cents/bushel (+3.9%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedHIGHMay 31, 2006
“Mine strikes spark squeeze; funds pile in (copper, +78.8% 6-month run-up to 2006-05).”
Copper · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Jun 30, 2006
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
copper: 2006-06 month-end close 3.46 USD/lb vs 2006-05 close 3.72 USD/lb (-7.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedHIGHFeb 28, 2005
“Brazil 2005/06 crop damage forecasts widen deficit (coffee, +71.9% 6-month run-up to 2005-02).”
Coffee · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2005
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
coffee: 2005-03 month-end close 126.40 US cents/lb vs 2005-02 close 119.15 US cents/lb (+6.1%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDApr 30, 2004
“China buying spree + Thai stock-sale suspension (exporter short squeeze) (rice, +49.8% 6-month run-up to 2004-04).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: May 30, 2004
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
rice: 2004-05 month-end close 10.17 USD/cwt vs 2004-04 close 11.30 USD/cwt (-10.0%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDMar 31, 2004
“Jan 2004 USDA reports: smaller 2003 crop, record Q1 use; stocks lowest since 1995/96 (corn, +45.3% 6-month run-up to 2004-03).”
Corn · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Apr 30, 2004
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
corn: 2004-04 month-end close 316.50 US cents/bushel vs 2004-03 close 320.00 US cents/bushel (-1.1%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedELEVATEDOct 31, 2003
“China import surge; world stocks lowest since 1994/95 (cotton, +42.2% 6-month run-up to 2003-10).”
Cotton · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2003
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
cotton: 2003-11 month-end close 68.00 US cents/lb vs 2003-10 close 76.73 US cents/lb (-11.4%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDOct 31, 2003
“Canada BSE closes border; imports vanish, supplies tighten (live_cattle, +28.7% 6-month run-up to 2003-10).”
Live cattle · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2003
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
live_cattle: 2003-11 month-end close 102.00 US cents/lb vs 2003-10 close 101.75 US cents/lb (+0.2%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
PartialReconstructedHIGHJul 31, 2003
“India drought collapsed stocks; exports withdrawn (rice, +67.9% 6-month run-up to 2003-07).”
Rice · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Aug 30, 2003
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
rice: 2003-08 month-end close 7.45 USD/cwt vs 2003-07 close 7.44 USD/cwt (+0.1%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.
MissReconstructedHIGHOct 31, 2002
“2002 drought slashes US, Canada, Australia wheat harvests (wheat, +53.7% 6-month run-up to 2002-10).”
Wheat · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2002
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
wheat: 2002-11 month-end close 373.00 US cents/bushel vs 2002-10 close 402.25 US cents/bushel (-7.3%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
MissReconstructedHIGHOct 31, 2000
“Forecast 2000/01 deficit after Brazil drought cuts cane (sugar, +91.9% 6-month run-up to 2000-10).”
Sugar · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Nov 30, 2000
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
sugar: 2000-11 month-end close 9.75 US cents/lb vs 2000-10 close 9.90 US cents/lb (-1.5%) — failed to hold; at or below the spike-month close.
PartialReconstructedELEVATEDFeb 29, 2000
“Russian export halt tightens market; gold rally spillover (platinum, +34.6% 6-month run-up to 2000-02).”
Platinum · no score assigned — reconstructed from price history
The criterion — reconstructed from the published record
At check-back, the commodity month-end close is >=10% above its spike-month close.
Check-back: Mar 30, 2000
What happened · graded Sep 27, 2026
platinum: 2000-03 month-end close 496.40 USD/troy oz vs 2000-02 close 471.70 USD/troy oz (+5.2%) — rose but below the +10% threshold; direction right, magnitude short.