Lumber
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS tracks lumber at the producer level, but there is no published national retail price series for the boards a homeowner would buy.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
The verdict
LBRX26.CME Nov-2026 backwardation (stable) — prompt premium, inventories tight.
CalmIllustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.
The 0–10 stress score and the full evidence sit under “How we know” below.
Lumber
We don't have an honest retail series for this yet — BLS tracks lumber at the producer level, but there is no published national retail price series for the boards a homeowner would buy.
US scope. We show a retail endpoint only when a published BLS series measures it honestly.
Where it comes from, and how it reaches your wallet
Lumber is in your everyday life as your home renovation.
Circle size ∝ share of world exports — country area does not imply volume
18% of world lumber exports · 2024 trade value
Top 3 exporters: 37.1% of world exports.
Canada accounts for 18% of the world's exported lumber by value — a disruption here travels through the buyers and companies below.
What-if presets
framed houses · new homes · roof and floor trusses
No documented company exposure in our sources for Home-improvement retail shelf and consumer housing.
A lumber supply shock would likely first appear in futures and cash bids — timing and size are not established in our sources.
Critical exporters & importers
2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lagTop exporters
Canada
18% of world exports
Russia
9.7% of world exports
Sweden
9.4% of world exports
United States
7.2% of world exports
Germany
7% of world exports
Next tier: Finland (5.8%), Austria (4.4%), Thailand (3.4%)
Top importers
21.2% of world imports71.4% from Canada
18.3% of world imports38.6% from Russia
6% of world imports34.3% from Sweden
3.9% of world imports22.9% from Canada
3.5% of world imports
An importer is “critical” here by share of world lumber imports; the per-exporter dependency underneath is what makes a shock travel. 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag — annual data, 1–2y lag.
Pick a shock, move the sliders, see what it would mean.
Market stress data as of Nov 9, 2026 from the commodity supply-risk monitor.