A market worth thinking through · Polymarket · Macro
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
How this market resolves
YES if the Federal Reserve makes zero quarter-point rate cuts during all of 2026. This is the no-cuts leg of the rate-cuts ladder.
Why we find this interesting
The market is 96% sure: no cuts this year. Consensus this strong is interesting precisely because the payoff sits in the 4% — what breaks that would force the Fed's hand?
The question we'd start with
What would have to break for the Fed to cut with the market pricing a 96% chance it won't?
The data to watch
The key numbers behind this market, and where they stand against what would need to happen.
The Fed held steady all year, then hiked to 3.75-4.00% on September 16. Sixteen of eighteen FOMC participants expect at least one more hike; none project a cut.
Federal Reserve FOMC statements and September 2026 SEP
Where the market stands
You've done the thinking. Here's what the crowd currently believes.
Market price
96%
As of 2026-10-03 — loading live price…
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We haven't taken a view on this one yet — no number from us, just the framing. When we do the full work, it shows up under what we're thinking through.
See the live market →Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Not financial advice.