A market worth thinking through · Polymarket · Macro
US recession by end of 2026?
How this market resolves
YES if the US posts two straight quarters of shrinking GDP anytime from Q2 2025 through Q4 2026 (per the Bureau of Economic Analysis), or if the NBER declares a 2025-2026 recession.
Why we find this interesting
Only 8% — the market is confident the expansion continues. Recessions are rare but the payoff for seeing one early is enormous. The question is what you'd watch to change your mind.
The question we'd start with
What breaks first — the labor market, credit, or consumer spending — and would we see it coming in the data we track?
The data to watch
The key numbers behind this market, and where they stand against what would need to happen.
Every quarter in the window is positive. For this market to resolve YES, both Q3 and Q4 2026 would need to print negative, with Q3 trackers currently pointing near 3%.
Bureau of Economic Analysis, through Sep 30, 2026
Where the market stands
You've done the thinking. Here's what the crowd currently believes.
Market price
8%
As of 2026-10-03 — loading live price…
Got a view? Paper-trade it
Put virtual money behind your read. We settle it when the market resolves — the point is the practice, not the profit.
Loading live price…
We haven't taken a view on this one yet — no number from us, just the framing. When we do the full work, it shows up under what we're thinking through.
See the live market →Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Not financial advice.