Our take · Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
Market says
8%
We think
6%
We looked hard at a US recession by year-end and couldn't find an edge. The market's 8% looks about right.
Why we're passing
Edge 2pp < 5pp publication threshold. Market fairly priced at 8% vs our ~6%.
Our thinking
For this to pay, GDP would need to shrink in both Q3 and Q4, but every quarter so far is positive and Q3 trackers point to growth around 3%. The only live path is a fast NBER declaration, which needs a downturn to start within weeks. Nothing in the data is near those thresholds today.
What would change our mind
How confident are we
Fairly confident there's no edge here. We'd revisit if Q3 GDP surprises negative on Oct 29.
We paper-trade our views so you can see how our thinking ages. Not financial advice. Not a recommendation.