Where do China tariffs land by year-end?
Will the general US tariff rate on Chinese imports be above 15% on December 31, 2026?
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The story so far
Nobody knows what importing from China costs anymore without checking the date. The Supreme Court struck down most of the IEEPA tariffs in February; a 100% tariff on certain pharmaceuticals took effect September 29; the "forced labor" tariffs covering nearly all US imports are being challenged in court; and late September brought a surprise Trump–Xi summit deal cutting tariffs on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods — one analyst puts the overall China rate near 20% after it. From October 18, the White House also gets broad discretion to set tariffs up to 100% on big buyers of Russian oil, including China. The rate on December 31 is anyone's guess — which is exactly the point.
How this resolves
This resolves YES if the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from China is above 15% on December 31, 2026. "General" means the base rate actually in effect that day — paused tariffs and announced-but-not-yet-effective tariffs don't count, and item-specific exceptions are ignored. The feed is official information from the Trump administration, checked against a consensus of credible reporting. At or below 15% means NO.
Illustrative question. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Votes are anonymous counts — they measure players, never a representative sample.