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The verdict

What if West Africa's cocoa belt dries out?

For this scenario, about 25.7% of the world's cocoa exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 120 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 60 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

In the recorded West Africa cocoa, 2023–24 analog, cocoa futures rise +352.3% in 700 days (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024), and for consumers: candy and chewing gum (CPI, US) rose +7.6% to +18.4% (no lag window was published for that recorded analog). Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.

Your settings aren't an exact match: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +352.3% (extreme).

Exposed ≠ lost. Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Model the shock

70%

Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

120d

Days the disruption lasts

60d

Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What to watch

  • Rainfall reports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana's cocoa belt through the main-crop season
  • ICCO quarterly balances — the 2023/24 deficit was the biggest in 60+ years
  • Disease and crop-condition reports for West African cocoa

Evidence: Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make your call

Not a bet, not financial advice. Write your one-line read — we check back on February 12, 2027 and grade it in public.

How we model thisThe full evidence, assumptions, and arithmetic — analyst layer.
Guided scenario

What if West Africa's cocoa belt dries out?

Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana anchor the West African cocoa belt. Explore what another dry stretch would expose.

1The setup

Côte d'Ivoire (28.9%), the top exporter, and Ghana (7.8%) together account for 36.7% of world cocoa exports by value (2024 vintage). When West Africa's belt has a bad season, the chocolate supply chain feels it first. This guide walks through what the monitor is seeing right now, how exposed the market is, and lets you model a drought yourself.

2Adjust the assumptions

70%

Historical check: The closest episode, West Africa cocoa, 2023–24, saw cocoa futures move +352.3% (extreme band); your 70% disruption setting sits in the large band.

What share of Côte d'Ivoire + Ghana’s cocoa exports is disrupted.

Resolution: Share of the focus exporter's shipments disrupted

120d

Historical check: The closest episode, West Africa cocoa, 2023–24, lasted 700 days (long); your 120-day duration sits in the medium band.

Resolution: Days the disruption lasts

60d

Your assumption — not a measured buffer.

Resolution: Assumed days of stockpile cover — an assumption, not a measured buffer

What this assumes
  • Exposure: Target share 36.7% × severity 70% = 25.7% exposed.
  • Uncovered days: max(0, 120 − 60) = 60.
  • Exposed ≠ lost: affected trade can reroute, draw down stocks, or find substitutes — this number sizes the exposure, not the damage.
  • Exporter share ≠ spare capacity: rivals may not be able to surge supply to fill the gap.
  • Combined share is the sum of the focus exporters' individual shares — a scenario hitting all of them at once.
  • Stockpile cover of 60 days is your assumption, not a measured buffer.
  • Results are physical-exposure arithmetic from your stated assumptions — not a price forecast.
Share of world exports

Côte d'Ivoire + Ghana cocoa — 36.7% of world Cocoa exports (Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage)

Exposed under your assumptions: 25.7% (36.7% × 70% severity)

The hatched area is modeled from your assumptions, not a measured outcome.

Exposed ≠ lost — affected trade can reroute, draw stocks, or substitute. This sizes the exposure, not the damage.

Disruption timeline
090180270365 days
Disruption: 120 days
Assumed cover: 60 days — your assumptionYour assumption

60 days buyers can't ride out — not automatically a physical shortage

What this would have meant

For this scenario, about 25.7% of the world's cocoa exports would be exposed to the disruption, and the disruption runs 120 days against 60 days of assumed stockpile cover, leaving about 60 days beyond what the assumed stockpile covers.

In the recorded West Africa cocoa, 2023–24 analog, cocoa futures rise +352.3% in 700 days (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024), and for consumers: candy and chewing gum (CPI, US) rose +7.6% to +18.4% (no lag window was published for that recorded analog). Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now.

Your settings aren't an exact match: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +352.3% (extreme).

Analog check

Your settings look closest to West Africa cocoa, 2023–24 (same commodity, same shock type, similar supply concentration). The episode's measured moves, caveats included: cocoa futures +352.3% in 700 days (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024); Candy and chewing gum (CPI, US): the retail move wasn't measured for this episode — the futures leg above and the farm-share bound below are all we can honestly say. Sugar, labor, packaging and freight also move the candy index; manufacturers hedge cocoa months ahead, delaying shelf impact..

Only about 11.8¢ of every US consumer food dollar — and 18.5¢ of every food-at-home dollar — reaches the farm (USDA, 2024) — that's a ceiling, not a prediction: margins can absorb a spike or amplify it.

Illustrative — what happened then, not what will happen now. Your scenario differs: your 70% disruption setting implies a large move, while the episode's futures move was +352.3% (extreme).

Read the full record
How we matched this
  • Commodity: requirement — Both are cocoa — non-cocoa episodes are excluded outright.
  • Shock type: 2/2 — Both are a drought shock.
  • Size: 0/1 — Your 70% disruption setting band: large; episode futures moved +352.3% (Jan 2023 → Dec 2024) — band: extreme. Severity is % of shipments disrupted, not a price move: this banding is a v1 matching heuristic.
  • Duration: 0/1 — Your disruption: 120-day (medium); episode: 700-day (long) — Jan 2023–Dec 2024 futures run-up window (repo event record west-africa-cocoa-2023).
  • Supply concentration: 1/1 — Your hazard zone: 36.7% of world exports (high); episode disrupted ~60% (high) — Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana ≈ 60% of world cocoa production and exports (ICCO — repo event record west-africa-cocoa-2023).

Score 3/5 — partial analog (mismatches named above).

Want the full controls? Reopen cocoa on its commodity page.

3Right now

Cocoa

QUIET

Stress 2/10

  • CCH27.NYB Mar-2027 contango (stable) — deferred premium, near-term supply ample
  • Kumasi: soil moisture dry
  • Akure: soil moisture dry

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026. Scores are observed readings, not forecasts.

4The exposure

Disruption hits:
  • Côte d'Ivoire
    28.9%
  • Ecuador
    22.5%
  • Nigeria
    11.8%
  • Ghana
    7.8%
  • Netherlands
    7.2%
Share of global export value (USD) — 2024 vintage. Amber = the scenario focus. Ranked by share.

How the shock travels

Follow the shock downstream — from the cocoa market, through processors, to the shelf. These are the usual stages, not this scenario's outcome: exposure at each step, never a prediction.

  1. Day 0: cocoa futures spike

    timing not established

    Lag basis: Day 0 is the shock itself; no lag applies.

    cocoa beans

  2. Chocolate manufacturers buy cocoa liquor, butter and powder

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    cocoa liquorcocoa buttercocoa powder

    Hershey

    HSY

    Cocoa liquor, cocoa butter and cocoa powder are major raw materials; Hershey hedges cocoa price risk over 3- to 24-month windows via forward purchasing and futures (Q2 2025 10-Q).

    Source: Hershey Q2 2025 10-Q (IR)

    Mondelez

    MDLZ

    Purchases large quantities of cocoa for its chocolate brands including Cadbury and Milka; its Q3 2024 10-Q notes the ICE cocoa-bean market price was 79% higher on the last trading day of Q3 2024 than a year earlier.

    Source: Mondelez Q3 2024 10-Q (IR)

  3. Retail chocolate aisle

    timing not established

    Lag basis: lag not established in sources reviewed

    chocolate barscandy

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Company entries describe factual exposure to the commodity — not a view on any stock.

Trade map

Who ships it, who can’t do without it

2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag

Sourced trade structure — the scenario’s shock geography at country resolution. Exposure, not a forecast.

Cocoa · Côte d'Ivoire + Ghana

Top exporters

  • Côte d'Ivoiredominant

    28.9% of world exports

  • Ecuadordominant

    22.5% of world exports

  • Nigeria

    11.8% of world exports

  • Ghana

    7.8% of world exports

  • Netherlands

    7.2% of world exports

Note: cocoa beans, whole/broken; Netherlands/Belgium are re-export hubs (Amsterdam), not producers — flag, do not present as origin

Exposed importers

Shocked exporters: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana

West Africa bean exports to Europe

via North Atlantic (no single canal chokepoint)

No single corridor — share not applicable — West Africa to Europe bean shipments are bulk ocean freight with no single canal chokepoint. No route share applies -- this is not missing research.

How we map this

Exporter and importer shares are 2024 vintage · annual data, 1–2y lag from UN Comtrade and OEC (BACI/CEPII); an importer counts as exposed when ≥20% of its cocoa imports come from a shocked exporter. The shock geography is the scenario’s own focus selection. Annual data with a 1–2 year reporting lag — the structure moves slowly, the prices don’t.

5What happened before

For perspective, not prediction

West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

2023 – Dec 2024

“ICE US cocoa (CC=F) rose 352.3% from Jan 2023 to Dec 2024 month-end, then fell 32.3% by Mar 2025. Reported deficits provide context, but these price comparisons do not quantify the contributions of weather, disease, inventories, demand, or positioning.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

Recurring — 2009-10, 2015-16, 2023-24

“Prices moved in different directions during the selected El Niño windows. These observations do not measure El Niño’s effect: KC=F tracks arabica rather than Vietnam’s robusta, and ZR=F tracks US rough rice rather than Asian rice export prices.”

Price moves were observed around the event — not proof the event caused the entire move.

Read the full record

What to watch

  • Rainfall reports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana's cocoa belt through the main-crop season
  • ICCO quarterly balances — the 2023/24 deficit was the biggest in 60+ years
  • Disease and crop-condition reports for West African cocoa
  • ICE cocoa futures relative to the December 2024 record near $12,931/ton

Curated by Morrowfly — these are things to check, not monitor conditions.

Make it yours

Your call, in your words — recorded privately on this device, with a check-back in 30, 60, or 90 days.

Tell us

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Read by a human · never auto-published

Illustrative scenario. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.

Monitor data as of Nov 9, 2026 · Trade vintage 2024 · Scoring v3.4

Where this happened before

What if West Africa's cocoa belt dries out? | Morrowfly