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West African cocoa deficits and the ICE cocoa price path

2023 – Dec 2024

The lesson: ICE US cocoa (CC=F) rose 352.3% from Jan 2023 to Dec 2024 month-end, then fell 32.3% by Mar 2025. Reported deficits provide context, but these price comparisons do not quantify the contributions of weather, disease, inventories, demand, or positioning.

What happened

West Africa's 2023/24 season combined dry Harmattan conditions (Maxar) with heavy rains that spread black pod disease and hurt bean quality; the swollen shoot virus infected an estimated fifth of Ivory Coast's crop (Tropical Research Services, via Nasdaq). Ivorian port arrivals ran nearly a third below the prior year into mid-2024, and trader Ecom projected Ivorian output down more than a fifth to an 8-year low of 1.75 million tonnes. In November 2024 ICCO raised its 2023/24 global deficit estimate to 478,000 tonnes — the largest in over 60 years — with production down about an eighth year-on-year and the stocks-to-grindings ratio at a 46-year low. NY cocoa set an all-time high of $12,931 per tonne on 18 Dec 2024. Subsequent reporting described lower processing volumes: fourth-quarter 2024 grindings fell to multi-year lows in Europe, Asia and North America, and ICCO projected a 2024/25 surplus of 49,000 tonnes — the first in four years.

Weather context
  • Ghana (cocoa belt centroid) (Oct 2023-Mar 2024): +0.81°C vs the 1991–2020 baseline; rainfall +43.3% vs baseline (122 days with <1mm rain). Rainfall ran 43% above normal across the 2023/24 main-crop window at this Ghana centroid — the heavy-rains half of the crisis (black pod disease); the dry Harmattan half is documented in the record's sources, not in this window mean.

One region centroid is illustrative, not field-level truth; baseline is the 1991–2020 day-of-year mean. Weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com.

What everyone expected

ICCO 'reports a third consecutive global shortfall this season and warns of another potential deficit next year' (Finimize, Dec 2024) — at the peak, the market was pricing a fourth straight deficit.

As reported at the time: Finimize, Dec 2024

Observed prices and measurement limits

These are changes in the named benchmarks over the stated windows, not estimates of the event’s effect. Endpoints omit interim moves. A supply shock may have kept prices above where they would otherwise have been, even if the measured change is negative.

  • Cocoa
    2023-01 → 2024-12 · CC=F month-end closes
    +352.3%

    Under two years, more than a fourfold repricing.

  • Cocoa
    2023-01 → 2024-03 · CC=F month-end closes
    +278.4%

    The first leg: deficit fears through the main crop.

  • Cocoa
    2024-12 → 2025-03 · CC=F month-end closes
    -32.3%

    ICE US cocoa fell from December to March month-end. The comparison does not isolate surplus expectations or changes in processing demand.

Month-end closes miss the $12,931 intraday peak, so the monthly series understates the top. Disease incidence figures (for example, the swollen-shoot infection estimate) are trade estimates, not surveyed fact.

Evidence and interpretation

The cited reporting describes production deficits and changing crop and grinding expectations. Lower production could tighten availability, while reduced processing demand could ease it. The record does not match dated changes in those quantities to prices or estimate their separate contributions. Neither the later price decline nor an individual buyer’s exchange activity establishes a general signal for a market peak.

How this record has changed

Living document — every material change is logged here, newest first.

  1. New evidence2026-10-30

    StoneX reversed its 2026/27 cocoa balance on October 29, forecasting a 64,000 metric ton deficit in place of its previous 25,000 metric ton surplus forecast, with world production falling 9.6% to 4.74 million metric tons on El Nino related disruptions in Indonesia, Ivory Coast and Ecuador, following an estimated 494,000 metric ton surplus in 2025/26. Exchange stocks moved the other way in the same week: ICE monitored cocoa inventories climbed to a 2.5-year high of 3,694,205 bags on Friday, October 30, and December New York cocoa (CCZ26) edged to a new 1-month low that day, so the tightening forward balance is still not the binding near-term price fact.

    Barchart, Cocoa Remains Weak on Rising ICE Inventories and Potential Brazilian Cocoa Sales, Oct 29, 2026 (StoneX: 2026/27 deficit 64,000 MT vs prior surplus forecast 25,000 MT; production down 9.6% to 4.74 MMT; 2025/26 surplus estimate 494,000 MT; ICE inventories 3,688,949 bags Thursday) · Barchart via MetaTrader, Cocoa Remains Weak on Rising ICE Inventories and Potential Brazilian Cocoa Sales, Oct 30, 2026 (CCZ26 closed down 3, -0.05% Friday at a new 1-month low; ICE inventories at a 2.5-year high of 3,694,205 bags on Friday)

  2. New evidence2026-10-27

    The slow start to the Ivorian main crop deepened on the cumulative count: Ivory Coast government data show farmers delivered 44,241 metric tons of cocoa to ports in the week ended October 25, against 82,010 metric tons in the same week last year, bringing arrivals for October 1 through October 25 to 122,453 metric tons, down 43% from 215,219 metric tons a year earlier. The cumulative figure extends the October 1 to 18 tally already in this record (78,212 metric tons, down 41%), and the two sum consistently (78,212 plus 44,241 equals 122,453).

    Barchart, Cocoa Prices Recover from Monday's 3-week Low, Oct 27, 2026 (Ivorian government data via Bloomberg: 44,241 MT delivered in week ended Oct 25 vs 82,010 MT a year earlier; Oct 1 to Oct 25 arrivals 122,453 MT, down 43% from 215,219 MT)

  3. New evidence2026-10-26

    The weak start to the Ivorian main crop is now quantified on a cumulative basis, even as exchange stocks kept climbing: Ivorian government data show farmers delivered 78,212 metric tons of cocoa to ports from October 1 through October 18, down 41% from 133,209 metric tons in the same period last year, while ICE-monitored cocoa inventories rose to 3,606,396 bags on October 19 and then to a 2.5-year high of 3,635,354 bags by October 21. The flow shortfall so far reflects delayed harvest and rain-disrupted deliveries as well as the smaller crop outlook, and it has not yet drawn down the ample stock cushion built from last season's larger crops.

    Barchart, republished on Kola King Substack, Cocoa Prices Rebound on Smaller Ivory Coast Deliveries, Oct 20, 2026 (Ivorian government data: 78,212 MT delivered Oct 1-18, down 41% from 133,209 MT; ICE inventories 3,606,396 bags) · TradingView, Cocoa Futures Drop, Oct 22, 2026 (ICE cocoa inventories at a 2.5-year high of 3,635,354 bags by Oct 21)

  4. New evidence2026-10-19

    Exporters surveyed by Reuters expect Ivory Coast's 2026/27 main crop at about 1.25 million tonnes, down about 17% from 1.5 million tonnes last season, citing persistent dryness since July and reduced fertiliser and pesticide use; one Abidjan exporter projected October arrivals of only 20,000-25,000 tonnes per week against an average of about 71,300 tonnes last October. Mid-October market reports put Ivorian port arrivals at 23,000 tonnes in the week, down 52% from a year earlier, consistent with that projection and a reversal of the early-October acceleration noted last week.

    Price Futures Group, Softs Report 10/14/2026 (arrivals 23,000t in the week, down 52% y/y; Reuters survey main crop -17%) · CocoaIntel, Cocoa Recovery and Ivorian Crop Risks, Oct 2, 2026 (Reuters exporter survey: main crop ~1.25Mt vs 1.5Mt)

  5. New evidence2026-10-19

    Third-quarter 2026 cocoa grindings, released October 15, split sharply by region: Europe rose 3.2% year on year to 348,215 tonnes (its first annual increase since Q2 2024), Asia rose 29.2% to 233,767 tonnes, its highest quarter on record, and Ivory Coast's Gepex processors ground 157,446 tonnes, up 40.3%, while North America fell 2.5% to 109,978 tonnes, weaker than expectations of no change. The rebound starts from a low base: Europe's year-to-date grind of about 990,000 tonnes is its lowest since 2015, and ICE-monitored inventories rose to a 2.25-year high of 3,593,964 bags.

    Barchart, Weak North American Cocoa Demand Hammers Prices, Oct 16, 2026 · ADM Investor Services, Europe & Asia Post Strong Cocoa Grind, Oct 15, 2026

  6. New evidence2026-10-14

    ICE cocoa (CC=F) stood at 5,833 US dollars per tonne on October 14, up 4.5 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-14) scored cocoa supply at 2 with an overall level of QUIET. StoneX reported on October 14 that El Nino brought drought to Indonesian cocoa and heavy rain to Ecuador. CocoaRadar reported on October 14 that Peru's cocoa exporters face a test beyond the farm map. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-13, observe per ICCO and origin reporting whether El Nino conditions in Indonesia and Ecuador and the Peruvian exporters' compliance test produced measurable effects on cocoa supply or shipments. Check-back: 2026-12-13.

    StoneX: El Nino Brings Drought to Indonesian Cocoa and Heavy Rain to Ecuador (2026-10-14) · CocoaRadar: Peru's cocoa exporters face a test beyond the farm map (2026-10-14)

  7. New evidence2026-10-13

    ICE cocoa (CC=F) stood at 5,845 US dollars per tonne on October 13, up 2.54 percent over five trading days, while the Morrowfly monitor (dashboard run 2026-10-13) scored cocoa supply at 2, up from 0 in the prior run. Barchart reported on October 13 that cocoa prices settled higher on Ivory Coast harvest delays, and CocoaRadar reported on October 13 that new data suggest Europe's deforestation law is already reshaping cocoa supply chains. CropGPT reported on October 13 that cocoa traded sideways as ample stocks countered next season's shortfall. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-12, observe per ICCO and Ivorian port reporting whether main-crop arrivals and harvest progress showed the reported delays easing or persisting. Check-back: 2026-12-12.

    Barchart.com: Cocoa Prices Settle Higher on Ivory Coast Harvest Delays (2026-10-13) · CocoaRadar: Analysis: New Cocoa Data Suggest Europe's Deforestation Law is Already Reshaping Supply Chains (2026-10-13) · CropGPT: Cocoa Trades Sideways as Ample Stocks Counter Next Season's Shortfall (2026-10-13)

  8. New evidence2026-10-12

    Rains in Ivory Coast delayed the cocoa harvest and supported prices on October 12, according to Barchart and Yahoo Finance reporting, while ICE cocoa (CC=F) stood at 5,635 US dollars per tonne on October 12, down 6.01 percent over 20 trading days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard, run 2026-10-12). CocoaRadar reported on October 12 that a Chase Cocoa Consulting director pointed to structural constraints in West Africa, including ageing trees and continuing swollen shoot virus losses, ahead of the 2026-27 harvest. Resolution trigger: by 2026-12-11, observe per ICCO and Ivorian port reporting whether main-crop arrivals and harvest progress showed the rain delays easing or persisting. Check-back: 2026-12-11.

    Barchart.com: Cocoa Harvest Delays in the Ivory Coast Support Prices (2026-10-12) · Yahoo Finance: Cocoa Prices Supported as Rains in the Ivory Coast Delay the Harvest (2026-10-12) · CocoaRadar: Cocoa's 2026-27 Harvest Will Test Whether the Price Retreat Can Last (2026-10-12)

  9. New evidence2026-10-12

    New-season Ivorian port arrivals accelerated, rising from 54,500 tonnes by Oct 4 to an estimated 77,500 tonnes about a week later, confirming the main crop is starting to flow. Meanwhile NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the odds of a historic-strength El Nino for Oct-Dec to 83% in its Oct 8 update, and Ivory Coast's weather agency warned of below-average rainfall through early 2027, keeping the weak 2026/27 outlook central. Q3 grind data for Europe and North America, due Oct 15, had not yet been published as of Oct 12.

    Trading Economics - Cocoa futures price news stream (Oct 12, 2026 item) · Nexstar - 'Chances remain high for a historic event': El Nino is strengthening, forecasters warn (Oct 8, 2026) · NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct 8, 2026): historic-event chance 83% for Oct-Dec

  10. New evidence2026-10-12

    December ICE NY cocoa rallied to two- to three-week highs on Oct 5 as excessive Ivorian rain cut off roads and damaged bridges, slowing deliveries to ports, then retreated through midweek as ICE-monitored stocks kept climbing to a new 2.25-year high of 3,559,258 bags (Oct 8) and Cargill disclosed mark-to-market cocoa losses, adding demand worries. By Oct 12 futures held above $5,600 a tonne, nearly double the Feb 27 low of $2,888, with the market described as range-bound between ample spot supply and 2026/27 crop risk.

    Barchart - Cocoa Prices Supported as Rains in the Ivory Coast Delay the Harvest (Oct 12, 2026) · Trading Economics - Cocoa Prices Retreat From Three-Week Highs (Oct 7, 2026) · Transport Topics (Bloomberg accounts) - Cargill profit undercut by cattle costs, cocoa losses (Oct 6, 2026)

  11. New evidence2026-10-09

    Cocoa slid on rising supply and demand worries: TradingView (06 Oct 2026) reported cocoa prices falling as ICE cocoa inventories soar, and CropGPT (trusted, 09 Oct 2026) reported cocoa sliding as rising stocks and demand worries override supply risk. Separately, Modern Ghana (03 Oct 2026) covered Ghana's new cocoa producer price alongside a teacher-union strike. CC=F settled at 5,641 USD/tonne asof 09 Oct 2026, down 4.92% over 20 days, while the monitor scored cocoa QUIET (total 1, supply 1). By 2026-12-06, observe per ICCO and Ivorian port reporting whether certified stocks stayed near multi-year highs and whether the 2026/27 main-crop narrative remained with record near-term supply or swung back to the deficit warnings of early October.

    TradingView: Cocoa Prices Fall as ICE Cocoa Inventories Soar (2026-10-06) · CropGPT: Cocoa Slides as Rising Stocks and Demand Worries Override Supply Risk (2026-10-09) · Modern Ghana: The Big Issue - Teacher Unions Refuse to End Strike & New Cocoa Price (2026-10-03)

  12. New evidence2026-10-05

    December ICE NY cocoa round-tripped in late September: after falling ~10.6% to ~$5,330/t by Sep 18, it rallied to $5,619 by ~Sep 26 (up ~5.5% on the week) on short covering as dry Ivorian forecasts raised 2026/27 crop concerns, then slid to ~$5,100 by Oct 1, the lowest since July 27, on record near-term supply. ICE-monitored inventories hit a 2.25-year high of 3,481,504 bags on Sep 30, and Ivory Coast shipments for Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 totaled 2.18 MMT (+19.8% y/y); the regulator's June-to-June harvest measure put 2025/26 at 2.06 MMT (+30%), so sources put the 2025/26 crop at roughly 2.06 to 2.2 MMT. The 2026/27 outlook deteriorated: below-average cherelle formation points to Ivorian output of ~1.75-1.8 MMT (~18-20% lower), Sep 1-13 deliveries fell 45.8% y/y (Reuters), Ghana COCOBOD's pod count points to 650,000t (-13%) with a grimmer warning of 450,000-550,000t, StoneX cut the global surplus to 25,000t, Transgraph to 80,000t, and Guan Chong projects a 300,000-400,000t deficit, with an emerging El Nino the key downside risk, potentially intensifying dry Harmattan winds from around November.

    Trading Economics - Cocoa Futures at Over 2-Month Low (Oct 1, 2026) · Barchart - Cocoa Prices Fall as Demand Weakens · Barchart via TradingView - Cocoa Prices Erase Early Gains on Abundant Ivory Coast Supplies · Bloomberg via i3investor - Guan Chong Warns El Nino to Spur Global Cocoa Deficit (Sep 2, 2026) · CocoaIntel - Cocoa Tests $5,300 Support (Sep 18, 2026)

  13. Correction2026-09-25

    Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a declining price does not establish that a supply shock had no supportive effect. Removed unsupported claims about offsetting drivers and clarified benchmark and window limits.

    Commodity-trader feedback supplied by the user; editorial review of bundled event observations (25 Sep 2026)

  14. New evidence2026-09-23

    Cocoa broke decisively lower the week of September 14-20: ICE December New York cocoa fell 10.64% from $5,961 to $5,327 per tonne, breaking the early-September consolidation band and closing below its 50-day average for the first time since the June advance (CropGPT, September 22). The fall was corroborated across sources: NY cocoa dropped 4.9% on September 18 to $5,603/tonne, a third straight weekly loss (Reuters, September 18). The driver is record nearby supply overwhelming next-season downgrades: Ivory Coast port arrivals of 2.14 million tonnes (+18% year-on-year), ICE certified stocks at a two-year high of about 3.44 million bags, and European Q2 grindings down 4.6% to 316,366 tonnes (weakest in six years), against StoneX cutting its 2026/27 surplus estimate to 25,000 tonnes (from 149,000 in April) and Guan Chong projecting a 300,000–400,000-tonne deficit (CropGPT, September 22). Ivory Coast expects port arrivals to accelerate, with about 26,000 tons arriving September 1-13 (Reuters). New downside thread: Ghana's licensed buying companies are reportedly owed about $349 million with six-month arrears, with effective farmgate prices down from about $308 to about $220 per bag — single-sourced to CropGPT's September 22 report and flagged for verification.

    CropGPT, 22 Sep 2026 · Reuters via maritimeprofessional, 18 Sep 2026

  15. New evidence2026-09-18

    CC=F cocoa sat at $5,620 per tonne as of 2026-09-17, down 5.72% over five days and 7.05% over twenty days (Morrowfly monitor dashboard run, 2026-09-18), while the monitor scored cocoa QUIET (total 2, supply 2). Headlines reflect the split: TradingView's 'Cocoa Prices Plummet on Ample Near-Term Supplies' (2026-09-18) against the LatinAmerican Post's 'Cocoa Farmers Face a Bitter Twist as Heavy Rains Threaten Their Harvests' (2026-09-16) and CBC coverage of the early production threat expected to get worse (2026-09-15). The market is pricing ample near-term supply over the emerging West African weather risk — a tension worth watching as the season develops. No forecast or transmission claim is made here beyond what was observed.

    Morrowfly monitor dashboard run 2026-09-18 (CC=F price history and commodity score) · TradingView (Barchart), 'Cocoa Prices Plummet on Ample Near-Term Supplies', 2026-09-18 · LatinAmerican Post, 'Cocoa Farmers Face a Bitter Twist as Heavy Rains Threaten Their Harvests', 2026-09-16 · CBC, early production threat expected to get worse, 2026-09-15

  16. New evidence2026-09-17

    Added ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the Oct 2023-Mar 2024 main-crop window at the Ghana cocoa belt centroid: +0.81 C mean temperature anomaly vs the 1991-2020 baseline, rainfall 43.3% above normal — the heavy-rains half of the crisis (black pod disease). Computed 2026-09-17 from the v1_2026-09-15 raw daily series with the same window_anomalies() method (addendum CSV in research). Attribution: weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com.

    Morrowfly research vintage v1_2026-09-15 + 2026-09-17 window addendum (ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo)

  17. Correction2026-09-15

    Seed revision marking this record as published under the adversarial-review standard established 2026-09-15: outcome figures recomputed from Morrowfly's own month-end price history, intraday peaks confined to mechanism prose, and no bare '%' figures in narratives. Applied at creation, before any public revision.

    Morrowfly internal adversarial review standard (15 Sep 2026)

Transmission

  • Cocoa
    production loss

    Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana are roughly half of world cocoa output; ICCO's 2023/24 deficit of 478,000 tonnes was the largest in 60+ years (ICCO via Barchart, Nov 2024).

Sources

Notes

  • Prices are monthly averages from our series (World Bank Pink Sheet; crude: EIA) unless noted; windows are labeled beside each number.
  • Generic futures series do not identify the delivery month at each observation or document the provider’s roll schedule and adjustment method. These price comparisons are not returns from holding one contract or following a specified roll strategy. Wheat comparisons also depend on protein, end use, and crop calendar.
  • Secondary press quotes are reported as published and were not individually audited against primary sources.
  • Illustrative scenario record. Not a prediction. Not financial advice.