El Niño: different episodes, crops, and price benchmarks

What happened

What everyone expected

Observed prices and measurement limits

Evidence and interpretation

How this record has changed

Living document — every material change is logged here, newest first.

1. New evidence2026-11-02

   Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported on October 27 that its weekly relative Nino 3.4 index reached +2.88C for the week ending October 25, the highest value in its weekly dataset dating from 2008, with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole at +0.69C after seven consecutive weeks above the +0.4C threshold. NOAA CPC's November 2 weekly update put its latest weekly SST departures at Nino 3.4 +2.5C, Nino 3 +3.7C, Nino 1+2 +4.6C and Nino 4 +0.2C, and its CFSv2 outlook issued November 2 favors El Nino continuing through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27. The Bureau's relative index and CPC's weekly departures are different measures and are not directly interchangeable.

   The Hindu BusinessLine, El Nino ramping up into a very strong weather event as index surges to 18-year high, Oct 27, 2026 (BoM weekly relative Nino3.4 +2.88C for week ending Oct 25, IOD +0.69C) · Insurance Business, Wettest El Nino year on record? ICA urges sum-insured checks before storm season, Oct 29, 2026 (BoM Oct 27 update: record +2.88C, highest in weekly dataset back to 2008) · NOAA CPC, ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions, update prepared Nov 2, 2026 (weekly departures: Nino 4 +0.2C, Nino 3.4 +2.5C, Nino 3 +3.7C, Nino 1+2 +4.6C; CFSv2 issued Nov 2 favors El Nino through winter 2026-27)

2. New evidence2026-10-26

   Columbia University's IRI, in its October 19 ENSO plume update, raised its forecast peak further: the average across all models now reaches a Nino 3.4 anomaly of +3.5C, after both the dynamic and statistical model averages rose about 0.1C to 0.2C from September, and IRI reports the weekly absolute Nino 3.4 anomaly centered on October 14 at +3.3C, the fifth consecutive week above +3C, with September's monthly value at +2.84C. IRI uses traditional absolute SST anomalies, a different measure from NOAA CPC's Relative Oceanic Nino Index (the same week's relative anomaly was about +2.4C), so the two series are not directly interchangeable.

   TheWeather.com, Super El Nino: new forecast confirms an exceptional peak of 3.5C, Oct 24, 2026 (reporting IRI's Oct 19 plume: all-model average peak +3.5C, weekly Nino 3.4 centered Oct 14 at +3.3C, September monthly +2.84C)

3. New evidence2026-10-26

   Philippine El Nino farm damage rose about 25% in under a month: the Department of Agriculture's October 21 bulletin put losses at P8.57 billion with 220,307 metric tons of production lost, up from the P6.87 billion tally in the previous national report already in this record, with corn losses of 132,290 metric tons valued at P5 billion and rice losses of 71,408 metric tons valued at P2.95 billion, and about 288,000 farmers affected. The DA backed a national state of calamity declaration and put projected losses at about P20 billion, with palay (unmilled rice) output reduced by 1 million metric tons in its worst case.

   BusinessWorld, DA backs state of calamity declaration as agri losses mount due to El Nino, Oct 25, 2026 (DA Oct 21 bulletin: P8.57B losses, 220,307 MT lost, corn 132,290 MT / P5B, rice 71,408 MT / P2.95B, palay down 1M MT in worst case) · Philippine News Agency, Agriculture sector braces for worst El Nino impact, Oct 26, 2026 (P8.57B damage, about 288,000 farmers affected, about P20B projected losses)

4. New evidence2026-10-19

   NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook, released October 15, translates the strengthening El Nino into a concrete December 2026-February 2027 outlook: warmer-than-average conditions favored across the northern U.S., wetter-than-average conditions across the southern U.S. from California to Florida and along the East Coast, and drought improving or ending in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. CPC's October 15 weekly indices stood at Nino-3.4 +2.4C, Nino-3 +3.4C and Nino-1+2 +4.4C, above September's monthly Nino-3.4 value of +2.1C; the October 8 monthly ENSO discussion (83% odds of historic strength for October-December) remains the latest monthly update, with the next ENSO discussion scheduled November 12.

   NOAA, El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook, Oct 15, 2026 · The Watchers, Very strong El Nino favors wetter South and warmer North in NOAA's 2026-27 winter outlook, Oct 16, 2026

5. New evidence2026-10-12

   Philippine President Marcos ordered early rice imports and livelihood assistance for farmers as the government braces for a prolonged dry spell expected from late October or early November through March 2027. The current rice harvest is unaffected, but water shortages could jeopardize the next planting season; contingency measures include cloud seeding, water conservation campaigns, and priority power, fuel and medical supplies for hospitals. The order follows mounting damage reported October 5: P6.87 billion in farm losses, more than 249,000 hectares affected, and states of calamity in 106 cities and municipalities plus five provinces, with the Agriculture Department preparing up to P45 billion in interventions and maintaining a 75-day rice supply buffer.

   Context.ph: Marcos orders rice imports, farmer aid as super El Nino looms (Oct 12, 2026) · Context.ph: DA readies P45B aid as El Nino damage mounts (Oct 5, 2026)

6. New evidence2026-10-11

   Drought linked to El Nino has caused P189.47 million in agricultural damage in Bohol, Philippines, with rice accounting for 95.09% of the losses, according to a government disaster report dated October 5. Some 7,035 farmers in 27 of the province's 48 towns are affected, with San Miguel hardest hit at P53.2 million. The province scheduled cloud-seeding operations to begin October 9, paying P5 million for the first phase, while assessments in other towns continue.

   Bohol Tribune: Drought losses hit P189M here (Oct 11, 2026)

7. New evidence2026-10-09

   Japan's Meteorological Agency said on October 9 that El Nino had reached its strongest level on record since September: the September sea-surface temperature anomaly in its El Nino monitoring region was +4.0 C, the highest since records began in 1949, beating the previous +3.6 C set in December 1997. The agency gives a 100% chance the conditions continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter. China's National Climate Centre announced the same day that a 'super El Nino' officially formed in September, after rapid Pacific warming from May to September met the criteria for the extreme event.

   Reuters: El Nino has strengthened to strongest on record, Japan weather agency says (Oct 9, 2026) · Pollar: Japan says El Nino hit record strength, peak expected in December (Oct 9-10, 2026; includes China NCC announcement)

8. New evidence2026-10-08

   The WMO's October Global Seasonal Climate Update, a consensus of 13 national and international centers, forecasts El Nino to intensify toward a December peak, with the October-to-December seasonal Nino-3.4 anomaly averaging about +3.7 C. If realized, that would be the highest since observations began, above the prior +2.6 C mark from November 2015 to January 2016. WMO gives a near-100% likelihood the event persists through February 2027, and Secretary-General Celeste Saulo called it potentially one of the strongest since at least 1950. The update also forecasts the positive Indian Ocean Dipole to peak in October and then weaken, with an October-to-December seasonal anomaly of about +0.5 C.

   WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update: Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Nino (Oct 8, 2026)

9. New evidence2026-10-08

   NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the odds that October to December 2026 will be a historic-strength El Nino (three-month RONI at least +2.5 C, stronger than any on record since 1950) to 83%, up from 75% in September. September observations rose across all key regions: Nino-3.4 reached +2.1 C (up from +1.8 in August), Nino-3 hit +3.0 C, and Nino-1+2 reached +3.9 C, with surface anomalies topping +4.0 C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. CPC now expects a strong-to-very strong event to persist through January to March 2027 with greater than 83% chance, and puts the very-strong threshold (at least +2.0 C) at 100% for both the September-November and October-December seasons. The El Nino Advisory remains in effect, with the next discussion scheduled for November 12.

   NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct 8, 2026; next Nov 12) · Doom Signals summary of CPC October strength table (Oct 8, 2026)

10. New evidence2026-10-05

    Indonesia's BMKG says the very strong El Niño persists alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with the rainy season arriving late across about 61% of the country and shorter than normal across roughly 52%, raising wildfire risk (from its seasonal outlook, restated in early October press coverage). The Philippines Department of Agriculture is seeking P10 billion for drought mitigation, on top of P6.2 billion in fuel and fertilizer subsidies already released and P3.5 billion requested for solar irrigation (reported late September). An October 5 FAO feature documents El Niño-delayed rains and drought hitting rice farmers in Cambodia's Siem Reap province.

    BMKG rainy-season outlook via Kita Indonesia Satu (Oct 4, 2026) · BMKG early-October conditions via RCTI+ (Oct 3, 2026) · BusinessWorld: Philippines drought measures (Sep 30, 2026) · FAO feature: When El Niño brings drought, every minute counts (Oct 5, 2026)

11. New evidence2026-10-05

    NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has not issued a new monthly outlook since the September 10 discussion, which put El Niño at a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this fall and winter; the next discussion is scheduled for October 8, 2026. The IRI September assessment, on the traditional Niño 3.4 index, shows weekly values reaching +3.0°C in mid-September, an August monthly value of +2.52°C, and a June to August seasonal mean of +2.03°C, with all 22 models keeping the event very strong (at least +2.0°C) through winter 2026-27.

    NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Sep 10, 2026; next Oct 8) · IRI September 2026 Quick Look (published Sep 21, 2026)

12. Correction2026-09-25

    Revised the lesson and interpretation after commodity-trader feedback: price-window comparisons do not identify causal effects, and a declining price does not establish that a supply shock had no supportive effect. Removed unsupported claims about offsetting drivers and clarified benchmark and window limits.

    Commodity-trader feedback supplied by the user; editorial review of bundled event observations (25 Sep 2026) · CME Group — Rough Rice futures specifications · ICE — Coffee C futures specifications · CME Group — Wheat futures and options specifications

13. New evidence2026-09-23

    California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide emergency on Sep 21, mobilizing state resources (flood-fighting supplies, Caltrans staging, National Guard on standby) ahead of potential flooding, landslides, and coastal hazards this winter as a very strong El Niño develops. California had already experienced coastal flooding earlier in 2026, per The Watchers.

    The Watchers, 22 Sep 2026

14. New evidence2026-09-23

    On Sep 19, the Pacific's key El Niño monitoring region reached 3.05°C above average, breaking the prior record from November 2015 — with roughly three months of strengthening still to come before the typical peak. Single-day reading announced by Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll on Sep 20 (not CPC's monthly/trimonthly index); directionally consistent with CPC's Sep 10 outlook of 75% odds of a historic-strength (Oct–Dec RONI ≥ +2.5°C) event.

    TheWeather.com, 22 Sep 2026 (citing Ben Noll / Washington Post, 20 Sep 2026)

15. New evidence2026-09-21

    NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the probability of a historic-strength El Niño for October–December 2026 to 75% on Sep 10 (up from 69% in August), with a 98% chance of a very strong event (Oct–Dec RONI ≥ +2.0°C); 'historic' means RONI ≥ +2.5°C, exceeding any El Niño in CPC's record back to 1950. No commodity outcomes exist yet — this is forecast, not evidence: the record's three-episode sample is about to get a fourth.

    The Watchers, 11 Sep 2026 (citing CPC Sep 10 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion)

16. New evidence2026-09-15

    Added two evidence lines: ERA5 weather reanalysis context for the event window (anomaly figures vs 1991-2020 baseline; weather data provided by Open-Meteo.com) and 'what the official numbers expected at the time' from USDA WASDE as-published vintages (expectations, not outcomes). Both from Morrowfly research vintage v1_2026-09-15; raw series stay in research.

    Morrowfly research vintage v1_2026-09-15 (ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo; USDA WASDE as-published vintages)

17. Correction2026-09-15

    An independent adversarial review rewrote the lesson to reflect mixed outcomes across tracked commodities (wheat fell, rice/soy/sugar did not), added row-level sources to every transmission entry, and qualified the 'no direct channel' cases. No new outcome data was added.

    Morrowfly internal adversarial review (15 Sep 2026)

Transmission

• Palm oil

  production loss

  Southeast Asian drought cuts yields with a lag — the classic El Niño commodity channel.

• Rice

  production loss

  Drought across Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and India.

• Sugar

  production loss

  Weak monsoon in India and Thailand (drought); excess rain delaying Brazil's harvest.

• Coffee

  production loss

  Drought and heat hit Vietnamese and Indonesian robusta; Brazil/Colombia arabica often benefits from warmer, frost-free conditions.

• Wheat

  production loss

  Australian drought and heat — the most documented El Niño wheat channel.

• Soybeans

  production loss

  Rainfall in Argentina and southern Brazil can affect soybean yields; a yield channel does not identify the net price effect.

• Corn

  production loss

  Favorable rains in Argentina/southern Brazil; planting risk in India on a weak monsoon.

• Cotton

  production loss

  Deficient Indian monsoon threatens the summer crop.

• Natural rubber

  production loss

  Drier-than-normal conditions across Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.

• Cocoa

  production loss

  Heat and drought pressure in Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.

• Copper

  production loss

  Heavy rain and flooding on Peru's coast and in northern Chile disrupting mines.

• Live cattle

  production loss

  Australian drought forces herd destocking — a near-term slaughter surge, tighter supply later.

• Vanilla

  protective

  El Niño tends to suppress Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone activity — protective for Madagascar vanilla, since cyclones are the kill mechanism (ReliefWeb/OCHA, Feb 2024).

• Platinum

  supply disruption

  El Niño-linked 2015–16 South African drought strained mine water supplies — a plausible supply channel, the weakest of the re-examined labels (MiningMx, Nov 2015).

Sources

• NOAA CPC · 2015–2019 · ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ONI tables)
• Rabobank via foodnavigator.com · 29 Jun 2015 · El Nino set to disrupt key commodities in 2015
• FAO via UN News · 5 Nov 2015 · El Niño blamed for spike in global food prices
• World Bank via Farmers Weekly · Oct 2015 · El Nino unlikely to cause spike in farm commodity prices
• Schroders via The Grocer · Sep 2015 · Severe El Nino puts agricultural markets on edge
• ABARES via AgroPages · 20 Oct 2015 · Australia wheat crop 2015-16 estimate
• USDA via FERN · 2016 · El Niño drought trims coffee crop in Asia
• Reuters · 25 May 2023 · El Nino seen posing larger risk to robusta coffee, less to arabica
• The Straits Times · 27 Dec 2023 · Global staple food supplies in 2024 to be strained by dry weather, export curbs
• ING via Hellenic Shipping News · Jul 2026 · El Nino casts a shadow over agri markets, but global food fears may be overblown (retrospective)
• Reuters (via Investing News) · 18 Apr 2016 · Heavy rains halt copper mining in Chile
• Neuberger Berman (via Nasdaq) · 10 Sep 2015 · A Perfect Storm? El Niño and food prices
• Reuters (via Grainews) · 14 Sep 2015 · Australia lifts beef export forecast as El Niño bites
• Reuters (via Carrier Management) · 12 May 2015 · El Niño poised to hit global crop production
• Assocham (via Hindu BusinessLine) · 2014 · El Niño: Assocham warns of drought, industrial slowdown
• Indonesian Rubber Association (via Tireworld) · 20 Nov 2015 · Indonesia rubber output seen down on El Niño and haze
• MiningMx (via Republic of Mining) · 6 Nov 2015 · South African platinum mines may run short of water in 2016
• Open-Meteo (ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis) · 15 Sep 2026 · ERA5 daily reanalysis, 1940-present (CC BY 4.0)
• USDA · 15 Sep 2026 · World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (as-published vintages)
• CME Group · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Rough Rice futures specifications
• ICE · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Coffee C futures specifications
• CME Group · Reviewed 25 Sep 2026 · Wheat futures and options specifications